NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20BOS

DAL

21-42

100120

BOS

42-21

NBAFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-0VegasBOS -15.5

DAL · top performer

Klay Thompson

G · #31

13.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

21.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 25pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:29

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	24	7	2-8	0-2	3-4	-18	5	3
D. PowellF · #7	15	2	—	—	2-2	-10	5	0
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	29	5	2-9	1-3	—	-23	5	3
C. FlaggF · #32	30	16	7-23	0-4	2-2	-17	8	6
M. ChristieG · #00	29	12	4-9	4-6	—	-19	4	2
Bench
C. MartinF · #16	16	4	2-3	0-1	—	+1	3	0
N. MarshallF · #13	25	13	6-12	1-1	—	-20	1	3
M. CisseC · #30	26	6	3-5	—	—	+10	7	1
K. ThompsonG · #31	18	19	7-13	5-11	—	-8	0	1
B. WilliamsG · #10	19	11	3-8	2-5	3-4	-4	7	4
R. NembhardG · #9	4	5	2-3	1-2	—	+4	0	0
A. JohnsonG · #8	4	0	—	—	—	+4	0	0
Team		100	38-93	14-35	10-12		45	23

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	27	15	6-16	3-8	—	+20	12	7
S. HauserF · #30	23	6	2-8	2-8	—	0	5	0
N. QuetaC · #88	26	16	6-8	—	4-7	+16	15	0
D. WhiteG · #9	31	20	8-16	2-7	2-2	+23	4	4
J. BrownG · #7	33	24	9-17	2-5	4-6	+20	7	7
Bench
A. WilliamsF · #77	3	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
N. VucevicC · #4	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
L. GarzaC · #52	18	10	4-8	2-6	—	+9	3	1
P. PritchardG · #11	34	18	8-17	2-8	—	+19	7	6
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	4	0	0-2	0-2	—	-4	1	0
B. ScheiermanG · #55	21	5	2-3	1-1	—	0	2	2
H. GonzalezG · #28	19	6	2-4	2-3	—	+2	2	2
Team		120	47-99	16-48	10-15		58	29
DNP: J. Walsh

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

38-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-99

FG %

14-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-48

10-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 2-0

Feb 4

BOS110@

DAL100

Mar 7

DAL100@

BOS120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+75012%

BOS-120092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -15.5↗SpreadBet BOS -15.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat DAL 120-100. J. Brown led with 24 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST. BOS outscored the other side 30-20 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 42% of pts

Starters(5)

42 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 22

Bench(7)

58 PTS · 18 REB · 9 AST

GS 49

BOSstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 43 REB · 18 AST

GS 76

Bench(7)

39 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL2nd Quarter · 4:19 · 43-40

+12pp→ 37% WP

Luka Garza · misses 28-foot three point jumper

BOS2nd Quarter · 2:40 · 48-47

+9pp→ 68% WP

Derrick White · enters the game for Hugo Gonzalez

DAL2nd Quarter · 7:29 · 31-31

+25pp→ 25% WP

Cooper Flagg · enters the game for Brandon Williams

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	22	31	27	20	100
BOS	21	37	32	30	120

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · BOS won 3

Flagg 6

White 5

Marshall 9

Garza 15

Thompson 11

Brown 12

Williams 8

Pritchard 10

DAL

BOS

Shooting comparison

DAL

BOS

41%

38-93

47%

47-99

40%

14-35

3PT

33%

16-48

83%

10-12

67%

10-15

Play-by-play · 462 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 100·BOS 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 100·BOS 120
Q4·22.3
shot clock turnover
DAL 100·BOS 120
Q4·46.0
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
DAL 100·BOS 120
Q4·48.6
Ryan Nembhard misses 31-foot three point jumper
DAL 100·BOS 120
Q4·1:02
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
DAL 100·BOS 120
Q4·1:03
Baylor Scheierman misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 100·BOS 120
Q4·1:16
Brandon Williams makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
·
DAL 100·BOS 120
Q4·1:39
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
·
DAL 98·BOS 120
Q4·1:41
Ron Harper Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 98·BOS 120
Q4·1:55
Ron Harper Jr. defensive rebound
DAL 98·BOS 120
Q4·1:57
Brandon Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
DAL 98·BOS 120
Q4·2:13
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
DAL 98·BOS 120
Q4·2:15
Ron Harper Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumper
DAL 98·BOS 120
Q4·2:33
Ryan Nembhard makes 19-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 98·BOS 120
Q4·2:42
Amari Williams enters the game for Neemias Queta
· ·
DAL 96·BOS 120
Q4·2:42
Hugo Gonzalez personal take foul
DAL 96·BOS 120
Q4·2:50
Payton Pritchard makes 19-foot step back jumpshot
DAL 96·BOS 120
Q4·3:06
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
DAL 96·BOS 118
Q4·3:09
Brandon Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper
·
DAL 96·BOS 118
Q4·3:19
Payton Pritchard makes 18-foot step back jumpshot
DAL 96·BOS 118
Q4·3:42
Ryan Nembhard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)
· ·
DAL 96·BOS 116
Q4·3:51
Neemias Queta makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Payton Pritchard assists)
·
DAL 93·BOS 116
Q4·4:12
Brandon Williams makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
DAL 93·BOS 114
Q4·4:20
Neemias Queta makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 90·BOS 114
Q4·4:20
Ryan Nembhard enters the game for Cooper Flagg
·
DAL 90·BOS 113
Q4·4:20
AJ Johnson enters the game for Max Christie
·
DAL 90·BOS 113
Q4·4:20
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Derrick White
·
DAL 90·BOS 113
Q4·4:20
Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
DAL 90·BOS 113
Q4·4:20
Neemias Queta makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 90·BOS 113

Betting line

BOS -15.5·O/U 226.5·DAL +750/BOS -1200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Dallas Mavericks, 120–100. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -15.5 cashed (won by 20). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

BOS

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.2

25.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR