NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7DEN

LAL

37-25

113120

DEN

39-24

NBAThu, Mar 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDEN -3.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 2:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	34	16	7-11	0-2	2-2	-10	5	8
D. AytonC · #5	5	0	0-1	—	—	-13	2	0
M. SmartG · #36	32	9	3-9	3-6	—	+3	1	2
L. DoncicG · #77	40	27	11-24	3-10	2-4	0	11	7
A. ReavesG · #15	38	16	6-11	1-2	3-4	-4	5	7
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	29	16	6-9	4-5	—	+10	2	3
J. VanderbiltF · #2	4	0	—	—	—	-5	1	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	10	2	1-6	0-3	—	-16	0	1
J. HayesC · #11	27	19	8-10	—	3-5	+7	5	2
L. KennardG · #10	20	8	3-6	2-3	—	-7	0	0
Team		113	45-87	13-31	10-15		32	30
DNP: D. Knecht, A. Thiero, K. Bufkin, B. James

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. NnajiF · #22	24	5	2-4	1-2	—	0	5	1
N. JokicC · #15	38	28	10-15	0-1	8-8	+6	12	13
J. MurrayG · #27	38	28	8-17	5-9	7-7	+9	4	7
C. BraunG · #0	40	15	6-12	2-6	1-2	+8	5	4
J. StrawtherG · #3	29	18	6-10	2-5	4-5	-1	2	0
Bench
J. ValanciunasC · #17	10	4	—	—	4-4	+1	4	1
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	26	14	4-7	2-4	4-5	+5	2	0
T. JonesG · #5	6	0	0-2	0-1	—	+4	1	0
B. BrownG · #11	30	8	3-8	2-3	—	+3	6	1
Team		120	39-75	14-31	28-31		41	27
DNP: D. Holmes II, D. Roddy, J. Pickett

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

45-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-75

FG %

13-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-31

10-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

28-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 21

LAL115@

DEN107

Mar 6

LAL113@

DEN120today

Mar 15

DEN125@

LAL127

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

240.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL+14241%

DEN-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -3.5↗SpreadBet DEN -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

240.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat LAL 120-113. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 28 PTS, 12 REB, and 13 AST. DEN outscored the other side 32-22 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 24 REB · 24 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

45 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 33

DENstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 28 REB · 25 AST

GS 76

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL3rd Quarter · 3:45 · 78-82

+9pp→ 27% WP

Bruce Brown · misses driving layup

LAL4th Quarter · 2:05 · 110-112

+16pp→ 47% WP

Jamal Murray · shooting foul

DEN4th Quarter · 2:05 · 111-112

+16pp→ 69% WP

Austin Reaves · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	22	32	32	27	113
DEN	32	32	29	27	120

Period scoring

LAL won 1 · DEN won 1

Doncic 6

Murray 9

Doncic 9

Murray 11

Doncic 12

Jokic 10

Hayes 8

Jokic 8

LAL

DEN

Shooting comparison

LAL

DEN

52%

45-87

52%

39-75

42%

13-31

3PT

45%

14-31

67%

10-15

90%

28-31

Play-by-play · 443 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 113·DEN 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 113·DEN 120
Q4·0.9
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
LAL 113·DEN 120
Q4·1.9
Luka Doncic misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAL 113·DEN 120
Q4·6.6
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 113·DEN 120
Q4·6.6
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 113·DEN 119
Q4·6.6
Jake LaRavia personal foul
LAL 113·DEN 118
Q4·7.9
Nuggets Full timeout
LAL 113·DEN 118
Q4·7.9
Jake LaRavia makes layup
LAL 113·DEN 118
Q4·15.3
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 111·DEN 118
−0.6pp
Q4·15.3
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 111·DEN 117
Q4·15.3
Luka Doncic personal foul
LAL 111·DEN 116
+4pp
Q4·17.3
Jake LaRavia enters the game for Luke Kennard
·
LAL 111·DEN 116
Q4·17.3
Nikola Jokic enters the game for Zeke Nnaji
·
LAL 111·DEN 116
−3pp
Q4·17.4
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
LAL 111·DEN 116
+1pp
Q4·17.4
Nuggets Full timeout
LAL 111·DEN 116
+0.7pp
Q4·19.4
Marcus Smart misses tip shot
LAL 111·DEN 116
+2pp
Q4·19.6
Marcus Smart offensive rebound
LAL 111·DEN 116
−2pp
Q4·20.1
Luka Doncic misses 26-foot three point jumper
LAL 111·DEN 116
+3pp
Q4·22.3
Rui Hachimura enters the game for LeBron James
· ·
LAL 111·DEN 116
Q4·22.3
Luke Kennard enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
LAL 111·DEN 116
Q4·22.3
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
LAL 111·DEN 116
Q4·22.3
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 111·DEN 116
Q4·22.3
Nikola Jokic makes 8-foot two point shot
LAL 111·DEN 116
+5pp
Q4·31.3
Bruce Brown offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAL 111·DEN 114
+6pp
Q4·34.3
Jamal Murray misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAL 111·DEN 114
−5pp
Q4·54.5
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
LAL 111·DEN 114
+2pp
Q4·57.3
Marcus Smart misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAL 111·DEN 114
+6pp
Q4·1:09
Luka Doncic defensive rebound
LAL 111·DEN 114
−2pp
Q4·1:12
Bruce Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper
LAL 111·DEN 114
−5pp

Betting line

DEN -3.5·O/U 240.5·LAL +142/DEN -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Los Angeles Lakers, 120–113.

DEN -3.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 240.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

DEN

57.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

57.2%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

49.2%

114.8

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR