NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8MIN

TOR

35-27

107115

MIN

40-23

NBAThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-0VegasMIN -4.5

TOR · top performer

RJ Barrett

F · #9

18.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Rudy Gobert

C · #27

25.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 13pp · 1st Quarter · 1:42

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	30	14	5-16	0-1	4-7	-27	5	2
R. BarrettF · #9	30	25	9-14	4-5	3-4	+3	6	0
S. BarnesF · #4	36	16	7-12	2-3	—	+3	2	3
J. PoeltlC · #19	29	9	4-5	—	1-2	-23	7	4
I. QuickleyG · #5	30	18	6-10	2-4	4-5	+8	3	7
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	24	11	5-8	1-2	0-1	-8	2	1
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	4	2	1-2	—	—	+8	4	0
J. BattleF · #77	10	2	1-3	0-2	—	+7	5	1
J. MogboF · #2	9	0	—	—	—	+4	1	2
J. SheadG · #23	17	2	1-7	0-2	—	-19	4	1
J. WalterG · #14	17	2	0-2	0-1	2-3	-4	0	0
G. DickG · #1	4	6	2-4	0-1	2-2	+8	1	1
Team		107	41-83	9-21	16-24		40	22
DNP: G. Temple

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	34	17	5-11	0-2	7-8	+9	8	4
J. McDanielsF · #3	21	8	3-6	1-3	1-1	+2	2	4
R. GobertC · #27	35	18	7-8	—	4-6	+18	12	5
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	27	16	4-7	4-6	4-4	+16	5	2
A. EdwardsG · #5	34	22	8-12	5-8	1-2	+15	4	3
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	15	4	2-4	—	—	-11	3	4
J. PhillipsF · #4	3	2	1-1	—	—	-8	0	0
J. BeringerF · #19	3	0	0-1	—	—	-8	0	0
N. ReidC · #11	21	12	5-12	1-5	1-2	+16	6	1
A. DosunmuG · #13	27	13	6-11	1-2	—	+25	1	1
J. ClarkG · #22	3	0	0-1	—	—	-10	0	0
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	3	0	0-2	0-2	—	-10	0	0
B. HylandG · #8	13	3	1-5	1-3	—	-14	0	0
Team		115	42-81	13-31	18-23		41	24
DNP: J. Ingles, M. Conley

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

41-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-81

FG %

9-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-31

16-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 2-0

Feb 5

MIN128@

TOR126

Mar 6

TOR107@

MIN115today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+18036%

MIN-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -4.5↗SpreadBet MIN -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat TOR 115-107. R. Gobert led with 18 PTS, 12 REB, 5 AST. MIN outscored the other side 35-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 68

Bench(7)

25 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST

GS 16

MINstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 31 REB · 18 AST

GS 77

Bench(8)

34 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR1st Quarter · 5:55 · 19-13

+8pp→ 51% WP

Sandro Mamukelashvili · enters the game for

MIN1st Quarter · 5:17 · 19-16

+8pp→ 56% WP

Ja'Kobe Walter · enters the game for Immanuel Quickley

TOR1st Quarter · 1:42 · 27-22

+13pp→ 49% WP

Sandro Mamukelashvili · blocks Naz Reid 's 4-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	27	27	22	31	107
MIN	31	24	35	25	115

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · MIN won 2

Ingram 8

Edwards 8

Barrett 10

Randle 18

Quickley 9

Edwards 11

Barrett 10

McDaniels 6

TOR

MIN

Shooting comparison

TOR

MIN

49%

41-83

52%

42-81

43%

9-21

3PT

42%

13-31

67%

16-24

78%

18-23

Play-by-play · 469 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 107·MIN 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 107·MIN 115
Q4·15.5
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes two point shot
TOR 107·MIN 115
Q4·16.7
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
TOR 105·MIN 115
Q4·17.9
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses 2-foot tip shot
TOR 105·MIN 115
Q4·17.9
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
TOR 105·MIN 115
Q4·19.9
Jamison Battle misses 26-foot three point jumper
TOR 105·MIN 115
Q4·22.2
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
TOR 105·MIN 115
Q4·25.6
Gradey Dick misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 105·MIN 115
Q4·34.0
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 105·MIN 115
Q4·35.9
Joan Beringer misses 5-foot turnaround jump shot
TOR 105·MIN 115
Q4·55.2
Jamal Shead makes 18-foot step back jumpshot
TOR 105·MIN 115
Q4·1:05
Terrence Shannon Jr. out of bounds lost ball turnover
TOR 103·MIN 115
Q4·1:22
Jamison Battle makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Gradey Dick assists)
·
TOR 103·MIN 115
Q4·1:28
Gradey Dick defensive rebound
TOR 101·MIN 115
Q4·1:30
Terrence Shannon Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper
TOR 101·MIN 115
Q4·1:45
Gradey Dick makes 1-foot dunk (Jamison Battle assists)
·
TOR 101·MIN 115
Q4·1:45
Jamison Battle offensive rebound
TOR 99·MIN 115
Q4·1:48
Gradey Dick misses driving layup
TOR 99·MIN 115
Q4·1:59
Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
TOR 99·MIN 115
Q4·2:01
Jaylen Clark misses driving floating jump shot
TOR 99·MIN 115
Q4·2:24
Gradey Dick makes 16-foot floating jump shot
TOR 99·MIN 115
Q4·2:41
Julian Phillips makes running layup
TOR 97·MIN 115
Q4·2:47
Jonathan Mogbo bad pass turnover (Joan Beringer steals)
·
TOR 97·MIN 113
Q4·2:53
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 97·MIN 113
Q4·2:56
Terrence Shannon Jr. misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 97·MIN 113
Q4·3:08
Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 97·MIN 113
Q4·3:08
Joan Beringer enters the game for Julius Randle
·
TOR 96·MIN 113
Q4·3:08
Bones Hyland enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
TOR 96·MIN 113
Q4·3:08
Julian Phillips enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
TOR 96·MIN 113

Betting line

MIN -4.5·O/U 226.5·TOR +180/MIN -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off Toronto Raptors, 115–107.

MIN -4.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

MIN

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.6%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

116.8

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR