NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2GS

32-30

115113

HOU

38-23

NBAThu, Mar 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasHOU -9.5

GS · top performer

Brandin Podziemski

G · #2

20.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 38pp · 4th Quarter · 6.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	35	10	4-6	1-3	1-1	+12	5	8
G. SantosF · #15	42	14	6-12	0-4	2-4	+20	6	6
A. HorfordC · #20	33	17	7-15	3-6	—	+7	6	5
D. MeltonG · #8	30	23	10-22	2-6	1-2	+8	6	2
B. PodziemskiG · #2	40	26	10-18	4-8	2-2	+5	9	1
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	12	0	—	—	—	-10	1	0
Q. PostC · #21	20	3	0-2	0-1	3-4	-8	6	3
N. WilliamsG · #19	18	2	1-4	—	—	-13	3	0
L. CryerG · #18	20	12	4-9	4-8	—	+6	3	1
P. SpencerG · #61	16	8	3-6	0-2	2-2	-17	2	3
Team		115	45-94	14-38	11-15		47	29
DNP: K. Porzingis, G. Payton II, M. Moody, W. Richard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	41	23	8-16	3-5	4-6	-5	6	3
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	42	3	0-8	0-3	3-4	-14	11	2
T. EasonF · #17	34	9	4-10	1-5	—	-2	5	2
A. SengunC · #28	37	17	8-20	0-3	1-1	-15	7	7
A. ThompsonG · #1	44	18	8-15	1-2	1-2	+6	10	5
Bench
C. CapelaC · #30	12	4	1-2	—	2-2	+11	3	1
J. OkogieG · #20	18	9	3-6	3-4	—	-2	4	0
R. SheppardG · #15	37	30	12-19	6-12	—	+11	3	6
Team		113	44-96	14-34	11-15		49	26
DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, I. Crawford, A. Holiday

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

45-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-96

FG %

14-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-34

11-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 27

HOU104@

GS100

Mar 6

GS115@

HOU113today

Apr 6

HOU117@

GS116

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+31024%

HOU-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -9.5↗SpreadBet HOU -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

214.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat HOU 115-113. B. Podziemski paced them with 26 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. GS outscored the other side 30-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 32 REB · 22 AST

GS 75

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 18

HOUstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 39 REB · 19 AST

GS 56

Bench(3)

43 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS4th Quarter · 45.2 · 101-99

+20pp→ 63% WP

Al Horford · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)

GS4th Quarter · 6.5 · 101-101

+31pp→ 84% WP

Rockets Coach's Challenge ·

GSOT · 29.9 · 113-112

+20pp→ 65% WP

Kevin Durant · misses free throw 3 of 3

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
GS	30	21	30	20	14	115
HOU	20	27	35	19	12	113

Period scoring

GS won 3 · HOU won 2

Melton 10

Thompson 6

Santos 8

Sheppard 9

Podziemski 10

Thompson 9

Melton 7

Sheppard 9

Podziemski 7

Durant 6

HOU

Shooting comparison

HOU

48%

45-94

46%

44-96

37%

14-38

3PT

41%

14-34

73%

11-15

73%

11-15

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
GS 115·HOU 113
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
GS 115·HOU 113
OT·0.1
Draymond Green bad pass turnover (Kevin Durant steals)
· ·
GS 115·HOU 113
OT·0.1
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Tari Eason
·
GS 115·HOU 113
OT·0.1
Tari Eason personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 115·HOU 113
−7pp
OT·4.2
Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
GS 115·HOU 113
OT·4.2
Warriors Full timeout
GS 115·HOU 113
OT·4.2
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 115·HOU 113
−0.7pp
OT·4.2
Amen Thompson enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
GS 115·HOU 112
OT·4.2
Rockets offensive team rebound
GS 115·HOU 112
−4pp
OT·4.2
Kevin Durant misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 115·HOU 112
−6pp
OT·4.2
Draymond Green personal take foulBIG MOMENT
·
GS 115·HOU 112
+7pp
OT·5.3
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Amen Thompson
·
GS 115·HOU 112
OT·5.3
Rockets Full timeout
GS 115·HOU 112
OT·5.3
De'Anthony Melton makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
GS 115·HOU 112
−7pp
OT·5.3
De'Anthony Melton offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 113·HOU 112
−8pp
OT·5.3
Gui Santos misses tip shot
GS 113·HOU 112
+4pp
OT·6.5
Gui Santos offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 113·HOU 112
−12pp
OT·7.0
De'Anthony Melton misses driving floating jump shot
GS 113·HOU 112
−3pp
OT·27.9
Draymond Green defensive rebound
·
GS 113·HOU 112
OT·29.9
Kevin Durant misses free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
GS 113·HOU 112
−20pp
OT·29.9
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
GS 113·HOU 112
+8pp
OT·29.9
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 3
GS 113·HOU 111
+3pp
OT·29.9
De'Anthony Melton shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 113·HOU 110
+18pp
OT·39.3
Al Horford makes 5-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 113·HOU 110
−12pp
OT·1:00
Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 111·HOU 110
+17pp
OT·1:07
Amen Thompson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 111·HOU 107
+7pp
OT·1:11
Amen Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 111·HOU 107
−13pp
OT·1:11
Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
GS 111·HOU 107
OT·1:11
Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 111·HOU 107
+2pp

Betting line

HOU -9.5·O/U 214.5·GS +310/HOU -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 115–113 in overtime. Decided by 2.

GS +9.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total cleared the 214.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Josh OkogieHOU · G
DEFL393

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
7.4± 2.5high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

HOU

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

114.5

PPG

114.9

114.1

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR