BKN
15-47
MIA
34-29
BKN · top performer
Michael Porter Jr.
F · #17
27
Pts
13
Reb
3
Ast
MIA · top performer
Kel'el Ware
C · #7
16
Pts
11
Reb
1
Ast
Biggest swing: 22pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:20
NBA · Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 27 | 9-24 | 7-18 | 2-3 | +2 | 13 | 3 | |
| 34 | 17 | 6-13 | 5-9 | — | 0 | 7 | 4 | |
| 28 | 16 | 6-15 | — | 4-8 | -4 | 8 | 1 | |
| 29 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | — | +6 | 8 | 5 | |
| 25 | 9 | 4-9 | 1-2 | — | -4 | 3 | 9 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 15 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 3-3 | -10 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | -14 | 3 | 2 | |
| 18 | 7 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | -8 | 5 | 1 | |
| 10 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-3 | — | -16 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 6 | 2-4 | — | 2-2 | -20 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 110 | 41-95 | 16-41 | 12-18 | 49 | 30 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 8 | 4-10 | 0-3 | — | -5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 25 | 21 | 7-15 | 0-4 | 7-8 | +10 | 7 | 2 | |
| 23 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 2 | 4 | |
| 31 | 25 | 9-16 | 2-7 | 5-5 | +6 | 4 | 5 | |
| 30 | 16 | 6-13 | 2-2 | 2-2 | +14 | 1 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 33 | 18 | 6-9 | — | 6-6 | +11 | 7 | 7 | |
| 32 | 16 | 7-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | +18 | 11 | 1 | |
| 21 | 9 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 0-1 | +11 | 2 | 2 | |
| 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 11 | 4-9 | 3-7 | — | +20 | 6 | 3 | |
| Team | 126 | 48-91 | 9-27 | 21-24 | 45 | 29 | ||
| DNP: S. Fontecchio, N. Jovic, N. Powell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
53
30
Ast
29
Team stats
BKN
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
41-95
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
48-91
43
FG %
53
16-41
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-27
12-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-24
30
Assists
29
20
Turnovers
12
Season series
MIA wins series 3-0
MIA106@BKN95BKN98@MIA124BKN110@MIA126todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -12.5
Between 10 and —
Total
225.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
BKN+55015%MIA-80089%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
12.5
0.0 since open
Total
225.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIA beat BKN 126-110. K. Ware led with 16 PTS, 11 REB, 1 AST. MIA outscored the other side 35-27 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIA vs BKN
Starters vs bench
production by unitBKNstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 39 REB · 22 AST
GS 64
Bench(8)
34 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST
GS 21
MIAstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST
GS 56
Bench(7)
54 PTS · 27 REB · 13 AST
GS 62
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNoah Clowney · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)
Noah Clowney · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)
Dru Smith · misses 2-foot tip shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 26 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 110 |
| MIA | 31 | 29 | 35 | 31 | 126 |
Period scoring
BKN won 1 · MIA won 3
Q1
Traore 7
Adebayo 11
Q2
Jr. 8
Herro 7
Q3
Jr. 13
Full 29
Q4
Williams 11
Jr. 9
Shooting comparison
43%
41-95
FG
53%
48-91
39%
16-41
3PT
33%
9-27
67%
12-18
FT
88%
21-24
Play-by-play · 486 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·6.6
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·11.2
Ochai Agbaji misses 23-foot three point jumper
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·26.3
Ben Saraf enters the game for Ziaire Williams
·
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·26.3
Kasparas Jakucionis enters the game for Tyler Herro
·
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·26.3
Trevor Keels enters the game for Bam Adebayo
·
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·26.3
Jahmir Young enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.
·
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·26.3
Myron Gardner enters the game for Pelle Larsson
·
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·26.3
shot clock turnover
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·49.1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·52.5
Ochai Agbaji misses 26-foot three point jumper
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·56.3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes driving layup
BKN 110·MIA 126
- Q4·1:11
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
BKN 110·MIA 124
- Q4·1:14
Grant Nelson misses 4-foot two point shot
BKN 110·MIA 124
- Q4·1:30
Bam Adebayo makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)
·
BKN 110·MIA 124
- Q4·1:50
Ochai Agbaji makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Ziaire Williams assists)
·
BKN 110·MIA 122
- Q4·2:00
Tyler Herro makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot
BKN 108·MIA 122
- Q4·2:20
Ziaire Williams makes free throw 1 of 1
BKN 108·MIA 120
- Q4·2:20
Josh Minott enters the game for Noah Clowney
·
BKN 107·MIA 120
- Q4·2:20
Ochai Agbaji enters the game for Day'Ron Sharpe
·
BKN 107·MIA 120
- Q4·2:20
Grant Nelson enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.
·
BKN 107·MIA 120
- Q4·2:20
Jalen Wilson enters the game for Terance Mann
·
BKN 107·MIA 120
- Q4·2:20
Dru Smith shooting foul
BKN 107·MIA 120
- Q4·2:20
Ziaire Williams makes 7-foot running jump shot
BKN 107·MIA 120
- Q4·2:23
Noah Clowney defensive rebound
BKN 105·MIA 120
- Q4·2:27
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 6-foot two point shot
BKN 105·MIA 120
- Q4·2:39
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
BKN 105·MIA 120
- Q4·2:41
Michael Porter Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper
BKN 105·MIA 120
- Q4·2:47
Terance Mann offensive rebound
BKN 105·MIA 120
Betting line
MIA -12.5·O/U 225.5·BKN +550/MIA -800
Recap · NBA
iami Heat held off Brooklyn Nets, 126–110.
MIA -12.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 225.5 OVER by 10.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Michael Porter Jr.BKN · FUSG%29.995
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · FDRIVES13.295
Ziaire WilliamsBKN · FDEFL3.295
Andrew WigginsMIA · FCONT7.693
Nic ClaxtonCHI · CCONT7.392
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · BKN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs BKN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
150
projections · 120 high confidence
Points
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Michael Porter Jr.BKN22.7± 6.2high
- Bam AdebayoMIA18.4± 7.8high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA9.9± 4.4high
- Julius RandleBKN7.2± 2.1high
Assists
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA5.1± 2.6high
- Bam AdebayoMIA3.9± 2.6high
Blocks
- Josh MinottBKN0.9± 1.2high
- Andrew WigginsMIA0.9± 0.9high
- Trevon ScottBKN0.8± 1.3low
Steals
- Josh MinottBKN1.3± 1.0high
- Trevon ScottBKN1.3± 1.8low
- Dru SmithMIA1.3± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
BKN
league avg
MIA
52.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.2%
44.3%
FG%
47.0
▶46.8%
105.9
PPG
114.9
▶120.9
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.0
15.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.0