NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+23LAC

IND

15-47

107130

LAC

30-31

NBAWed, Mar 4FinalSeriesLAC lead series 1-0VegasLAC -11.5

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

24.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ LAC

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	30	29	8-14	1-3	12-14	-21	5	1
J. WalkerF · #5	31	17	6-12	1-4	4-4	+2	5	5
J. HuffC · #32	25	18	7-13	4-8	—	-2	5	1
A. NembhardG · #2	24	5	1-5	0-3	3-5	-15	4	5
A. NesmithG · #23	20	2	1-8	0-4	0-1	-19	3	2
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-11	3	1
M. PotterC · #11	24	10	3-6	1-3	3-4	-6	6	0
T.J. McConnellG · #9	16	6	3-6	—	—	-8	3	5
K. BrownG · #24	22	5	2-4	1-2	—	-12	2	2
B. SheppardG · #26	20	4	2-8	0-4	—	-16	1	1
Q. JacksonG · #29	18	11	3-7	2-4	3-3	-7	1	3
Team		107	36-84	10-36	25-31		38	26
DNP: K. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	23	29	10-18	3-7	6-6	+14	8	2
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	26	12	5-9	1-4	1-2	+16	2	0
B. LopezC · #11	21	17	7-12	1-3	2-3	+5	3	2
K. DunnG · #8	23	6	2-3	2-3	—	+16	6	3
K. SandersG · #4	21	6	2-5	2-4	—	+12	0	2
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	5	0	—	—	—	+4	1	0
I. JacksonF · #23	18	10	4-6	—	2-3	+4	4	2
N. OmierF · #55	5	2	1-2	0-1	—	-6	3	0
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	8	6	2-2	—	2-2	+14	4	0
J. MillerG · #22	27	4	2-6	—	—	+12	3	2
D. GarlandG · #10	24	12	5-10	2-4	—	+20	4	8
B. MathurinG · #9	22	23	8-11	1-3	6-7	+32	8	4
T. Washington Jr.G · #15	8	2	1-2	0-1	—	-14	0	1
C. ChristieG · #12	8	1	0-3	0-2	1-2	-14	1	2
Team		130	49-89	12-32	20-25		47	28
DNP: B. Bogdanovic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

36-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-89

FG %

10-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-32

25-31

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC lead series 1-0

Mar 5

IND107@

LAC130today

Mar 27

LAC114@

IND113

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+47018%

LAC-65087%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -11.5↗SpreadBet LAC -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat IND 130-107. K. Leonard paced them with 29 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. LAC outscored the other side 42-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 22 REB · 14 AST

GS 50

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 16 REB · 12 AST

GS 26

LACstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 19 REB · 9 AST

GS 54

Bench(9)

60 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST

GS 60

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	25	26	26	30	107
LAC	42	21	39	28	130

Period scoring

IND won 2 · LAC won 2

Siakam 9

Leonard 12

Siakam 10

Leonard 8

Huff 8

Leonard 9

Walker 13

Garland 6

IND

LAC

Shooting comparison

IND

LAC

43%

36-84

55%

49-89

28%

10-36

3PT

38%

12-32

81%

25-31

80%

20-25

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 107·LAC 130
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 107·LAC 130
Q4·8.8
Norchad Omier offensive rebound
IND 107·LAC 130
Q4·11.5
TyTy Washington Jr. misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 107·LAC 130
Q4·34.7
Ben Sheppard makes 2-foot running dunk (Kobe Brown assists)
·
IND 107·LAC 130
Q4·38.3
TyTy Washington Jr. bad pass turnover (Kobe Brown steals)
·
IND 105·LAC 130
Q4·40.7
Clippers offensive team rebound
IND 105·LAC 130
Q4·41.2
Cam Christie misses driving layup
IND 105·LAC 130
Q4·50.8
Norchad Omier defensive rebound
IND 105·LAC 130
Q4·53.1
Ben Sheppard misses layup
IND 105·LAC 130
Q4·1:14
Norchad Omier makes 10-foot two point shot (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)
·
IND 105·LAC 130
Q4·1:29
Jarace Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)
·
IND 105·LAC 128
Q4·1:48
Pacers Full timeout
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·1:48
Micah Potter defensive rebound
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·1:50
Isaiah Jackson misses 13-foot two point shot
·
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·2:06
Norchad Omier defensive rebound
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·2:10
Jay Huff misses 28-foot three point jumper
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·2:18
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·2:20
Jordan Miller misses driving layup
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·2:39
Cam Christie defensive rebound
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·2:43
Ben Sheppard misses 27-foot three point jumper
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·2:54
TyTy Washington Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·3:07
Jarace Walker makes running layup
IND 102·LAC 128
Q4·3:10
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
IND 100·LAC 128
Q4·3:14
Cam Christie misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 100·LAC 128
Q4·3:29
Jarace Walker makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
IND 100·LAC 128
Q4·3:49
TyTy Washington Jr. makes 6-foot two point shot (Cam Christie assists)
·
IND 98·LAC 128
Q4·4:05
Jarace Walker makes driving layup
IND 98·LAC 126
Q4·4:12
Ben Sheppard defensive rebound
IND 96·LAC 126
Q4·4:16
Norchad Omier misses 27-foot three point jumper
IND 96·LAC 126

Betting line

LAC -11.5·O/U 230.5·IND +470/LAC -650

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers held off Indiana Pacers, 130–107. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAC -11.5 cashed (won by 23). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardLAC · F
USG%33.399
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
6.5± 1.4high
Micah PotterIND
6.1± 4.5high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

LAC

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

113.9

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR