NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+29CHA

CHA

32-31

11889

BOS

41-21

NBAWed, Mar 4FinalSeriesCHA leads series 1-0VegasBOS -6.5

CHA · top performer

Coby White

G · #3

17.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Derrick White

G · #9

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 7:22

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	31	9	3-10	2-7	1-2	+21	3	2
M. DiabateF · #14	29	9	2-4	—	5-6	+11	9	6
B. MillerF · #24	27	18	8-13	2-5	—	+12	5	2
L. BallG · #1	23	18	7-17	4-10	—	+9	7	4
K. KnueppelG · #7	31	20	7-14	4-8	2-3	+22	4	0
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	5	0	—	—	—	+5	0	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	14	6	3-4	—	—	+13	2	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	14	6	2-7	2-6	—	+7	2	1
C. WhiteG · #3	20	17	6-9	2-3	3-4	+17	1	6
J. GreenG · #10	21	6	1-3	1-3	3-3	+10	3	1
T. MannG · #23	4	0	0-3	0-2	—	+2	0	0
A. ReevesG · #12	5	3	1-1	1-1	—	+5	3	0
S. JamesG · #4	17	6	1-4	1-4	3-3	+11	4	3
Team		118	41-89	19-49	17-21		43	26

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	25	3	1-5	1-5	—	-21	7	1
N. QuetaC · #88	16	2	1-3	—	—	-12	2	0
D. WhiteG · #9	29	29	9-17	3-9	8-8	-18	2	3
J. BrownG · #7	34	20	7-19	1-4	5-6	-20	11	7
B. ScheiermanG · #55	32	9	3-4	1-2	2-2	-10	4	5
Bench
N. VucevicC · #4	17	7	2-10	1-3	2-2	-9	4	1
L. GarzaC · #52	15	9	3-5	1-3	2-2	-8	2	0
P. PritchardG · #11	24	0	0-6	0-5	—	-14	2	0
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	0
J. WalshG · #27	16	2	1-1	—	—	-10	5	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	25	8	3-8	2-4	—	-19	6	1
Team		89	30-79	10-36	19-20		45	18
DNP: A. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

41-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-79

FG %

19-49

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-36

17-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 1-0

Mar 5

CHA118@

BOS89today

Mar 29

BOS114@

CHA99

Apr 8

CHA102@

BOS113

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+20533%

BOS-25071%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -6.5↗SpreadBet BOS -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

214.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat BOS 118-89. C. White led with 17 PTS, 1 REB, 6 AST. CHA outscored the other side 35-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 28 REB · 14 AST

GS 61

Bench(8)

44 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 46

BOSstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST

GS 49

Bench(6)

26 PTS · 19 REB · 2 AST

GS 9

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	35	29	27	27	118
BOS	23	20	25	21	89

Period scoring

CHA won 4 · BOS won 0

Ball 8

White 12

Miller 10

Brown 8

Knueppel 10

White 10

Ball 6

Brown 10

CHA

BOS

Shooting comparison

CHA

BOS

46%

41-89

38%

30-79

39%

19-49

3PT

28%

10-36

81%

17-21

95%

19-20

Play-by-play · 451 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 118·BOS 89
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 118·BOS 89
Q4·7.2
shot clock turnover
CHA 118·BOS 89
Q4·20.4
Sion James offensive rebound
CHA 118·BOS 89
Q4·23.7
Tre Mann misses 33-foot three point jumper
CHA 118·BOS 89
Q4·47.1
Antonio Reeves defensive rebound
CHA 118·BOS 89
Q4·50.2
Xavier Tillman blocks Hugo Gonzalez 's 12-foot jumper
·
CHA 118·BOS 89
Q4·1:03
Pat Connaughton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)
·
CHA 118·BOS 89
Q4·1:20
Baylor Scheierman bad pass turnover (Pat Connaughton steals)
·
CHA 115·BOS 89
Q4·1:35
Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
CHA 115·BOS 89
Q4·1:38
Tre Mann misses 27-foot three point jumper
CHA 115·BOS 89
Q4·1:54
Antonio Reeves defensive rebound
CHA 115·BOS 89
Q4·1:58
Ron Harper Jr. misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHA 115·BOS 89
Q4·2:08
Antonio Reeves makes 25-foot three pointer (Pat Connaughton assists)
·
CHA 115·BOS 89
Q4·2:10
Pat Connaughton offensive rebound
CHA 112·BOS 89
Q4·2:13
Tre Mann misses driving floating jump shot
CHA 112·BOS 89
Q4·2:37
Luka Garza makes running layup (Baylor Scheierman assists)
·
CHA 112·BOS 89
Q4·2:41
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
CHA 112·BOS 87
Q4·2:46
Sion James misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHA 112·BOS 87
Q4·2:54
Luka Garza lost ball turnover (Tre Mann steals)
· ·
CHA 112·BOS 87
Q4·3:04
Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
CHA 112·BOS 87
Q4·3:08
Pat Connaughton misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHA 112·BOS 87
Q4·3:35
Luka Garza makes driving layup (Hugo Gonzalez assists)
·
CHA 112·BOS 87
Q4·3:49
Tre Mann offensive foul turnover
CHA 112·BOS 85
Q4·3:49
Tre Mann offensive foul
CHA 112·BOS 85
Q4·4:01
Luka Garza offensive foul turnover
CHA 112·BOS 85
Q4·4:01
Luka Garza offensive charge
CHA 112·BOS 85
Q4·4:17
Sion James makes free throw 3 of 3
CHA 112·BOS 85
Q4·4:17
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Josh Green
·
CHA 111·BOS 85
Q4·4:17
Tre Mann enters the game for Miles Bridges
·
CHA 111·BOS 85

Betting line

BOS -6.5·O/U 214.5·CHA +205/BOS -250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Boston Celtics and beat them, 118–89. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA +6.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 214.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

BOS

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.5%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR