NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OKC

OKC

49-15

103100

40-23

NBAWed, Mar 4FinalSeriesOKC leads series 1-0VegasOKC -4.5

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

21.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Karl-Anthony Towns

C · #32

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 5:53

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	17	0	—	—	—	+2	5	2
C. HolmgrenC · #7	32	28	11-19	6-11	—	+9	8	2
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	35	26	9-16	1-1	7-7	+6	3	8
L. DortG · #5	33	16	4-9	3-8	5-6	+15	4	1
C. WallaceG · #22	29	4	2-6	0-3	—	-7	4	3
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	18	8	2-6	2-5	2-2	-3	5	2
A. CarusoG · #9	12	3	1-1	1-1	0-2	-4	4	1
K. WilliamsG · #34	6	3	1-2	1-2	—	+8	0	0
I. JoeG · #11	24	4	0-5	0-4	4-4	+5	2	1
A. WigginsG · #21	18	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	+2	2	0
J. McCainG · #3	15	5	1-5	1-5	2-2	-18	1	1
Team		103	33-73	16-42	21-25		38	21
DNP: B. Barnhizer

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	38	16	6-17	4-13	—	-4	3	0
K. TownsC · #32	33	17	7-8	—	3-4	-18	17	1
J. HartG · #3	25	10	4-11	0-3	2-2	-9	12	3
M. BridgesG · #25	40	15	6-17	1-5	2-3	-6	4	0
J. BrunsonG · #11	39	16	5-18	2-5	4-6	+3	3	15
Bench
J. SochanF · #10	2	0	—	—	—	+5	0	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	13	9	3-4	3-4	—	+3	3	0
A. HukportiC · #55	9	0	—	—	—	+7	3	0
L. ShametG · #44	31	14	5-9	0-3	4-5	+12	3	2
J. AlvaradoG · #5	12	3	1-4	0-2	1-2	-8	0	2
Team		100	37-88	10-35	16-22		48	23
DNP: T. Jemison III, P. Dadiet, J. Clarkson, K. McCullar Jr., T. Kolek

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

Home

33-73

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-88

FG %

16-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-35

21-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC leads series 1-0

Mar 5

OKC103@

NY100today

Mar 29

NY100@

OKC111

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-18064%

NY+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -4.5↗SpreadBet OKC -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat NY 103-100. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 26 PTS, 3 REB, 8 AST. NY outscored the other side 40-27 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 57

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 18

NYstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 39 REB · 19 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY3rd Quarter · 1.7 · 77-80

+10pp→ 58% WP

Mikal Bridges · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)

NY4th Quarter · 10:48 · 79-80

+10pp→ 63% WP

Kenrich Williams · shooting foul

NY4th Quarter · 3:41 · 96-91

+11pp→ 26% WP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	25	25	27	26	103
NY	23	17	40	20	100

Period scoring

OKC won 3 · NY won 1

Holmgren 14

Anunoby 6

Holmgren 8

Towns 7

Gilgeous-Alexander 8

Brunson 11

Gilgeous-Alexander 7

Hart 6

OKC

Shooting comparison

OKC

45%

33-73

42%

37-88

38%

16-42

3PT

29%

10-35

84%

21-25

73%

16-22

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 103·NY 100
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 103·NY 100
Q4·0.1
Knicks offensive team rebound
OKC 103·NY 100
Q4·0.1
OG Anunoby misses 27-foot turnaround jump shot
OKC 103·NY 100
−1pp
Q4·0.7
Mikal Bridges offensive rebound
OKC 103·NY 100
−3pp
Q4·3.9
Jalen Brunson misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
OKC 103·NY 100
−6pp
Q4·6.0
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe
· ·
OKC 103·NY 100
Q4·6.0
Knicks Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
OKC 103·NY 100
−8pp
Q4·15.6
Josh Hart defensive rebound
OKC 103·NY 100
+2pp
Q4·17.7
Chet Holmgren misses 7-foot turnaround jump shot
OKC 103·NY 100
+3pp
Q4·40.8
Jalen Brunson makes 14-foot turnaround jump shot
OKC 103·NY 100
+3pp
Q4·51.7
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 103·NY 98
Q4·51.7
Luguentz Dort offensive foul turnover
OKC 103·NY 98
Q4·51.7
Luguentz Dort offensive charge
OKC 103·NY 98
+4pp
Q4·1:08
Josh Hart makes layup (Jalen Brunson assists)
·
OKC 103·NY 98
+2pp
Q4·1:18
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
OKC 103·NY 96
−8pp
Q4·1:32
Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 100·NY 96
−5pp
Q4·1:32
Josh Hart makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 100·NY 95
+1pp
Q4·1:32
Cason Wallace shooting foul
OKC 100·NY 94
Q4·1:41
Luguentz Dort loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
OKC 100·NY 94
+9pp
Q4·1:41
Knicks offensive team rebound
OKC 100·NY 94
+2pp
Q4·1:42
Jalen Brunson misses driving floating jump shot
OKC 100·NY 94
−3pp
Q4·1:50
Josh Hart defensive rebound
OKC 100·NY 94
+0.8pp
Q4·1:52
Isaiah Joe misses 27-foot three point jumper
OKC 100·NY 94
+2pp
Q4·2:06
Josh Hart makes layup (Jalen Brunson assists)
·
OKC 100·NY 94
+1pp
Q4·2:26
Josh Hart defensive rebound
OKC 100·NY 92
Q4·2:29
Chet Holmgren misses 22-foot three point jumper
OKC 100·NY 92
+0.9pp
Q4·2:45
Jalen Brunson lost ball turnover (Cason Wallace steals)
·
OKC 100·NY 92
−2pp
Q4·2:59
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 100·NY 92
+1pp
Q4·2:59
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 99·NY 92

Betting line

OKC -4.5·O/U 221.5·OKC -180/NY +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into New York Knicks and beat them, 103–100. Decided by 3.

NY +4.5 cashed (OKC won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
OG AnunobyNY
18.6± 7.0high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Branden CarlsonOKC
0.9± 1.6high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.9%

48.2%

FG%

47.0

48.0%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

116.4

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR