NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11PHX

PHX

35-26

114103

SAC

14-49

NBATue, Mar 3FinalSeriesPHX wins series 4-0VegasPHX -9.5

PHX · top performer

Collin Gillespie

G · #12

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Maxime Raynaud

C · #42

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 14pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:48

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	29	6	2-7	2-7	—	-7	4	5
M. WilliamsC · #15	22	10	3-6	—	4-6	-10	9	0
D. BookerG · #1	31	17	6-19	4-9	1-1	-5	4	6
C. GillespieG · #12	31	17	6-10	5-8	—	+15	5	9
J. GreenG · #4	31	20	7-16	2-8	4-4	+8	4	1
Bench
O. IghodaroF · #11	26	14	7-10	—	0-2	+21	14	3
R. DunnF · #0	17	2	1-2	0-1	0-2	+13	1	0
R. FlemingF · #20	15	8	3-4	2-3	—	+5	6	1
G. AllenG · #8	25	18	6-15	4-12	2-2	+18	3	6
A. CoffeyG · #2	12	2	1-3	0-1	—	-3	3	0
Team		114	42-92	19-49	11-17		53	31
DNP: I. Livers, H. Highsmith, K. Maluach, J. Bouyea

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	39	18	8-14	0-2	2-2	0	9	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	36	22	10-12	—	2-3	+3	10	4
R. WestbrookG · #18	31	16	6-14	3-6	1-2	-2	2	7
D. DeRozanG · #10	34	17	5-15	0-2	7-9	-14	2	1
N. CliffordG · #5	39	10	5-13	0-5	—	+5	8	4
Bench
D. EubanksF · #19	3	0	0-1	—	—	-7	0	0
M. MonkG · #0	18	13	5-10	3-7	—	-19	3	5
D. PlowdenG · #29	21	2	0-3	0-2	2-2	-11	4	1
D. CarterG · #22	9	2	1-4	—	—	-7	2	0
K. HayesG · #3	10	3	1-4	1-3	—	-3	0	2
Team		103	41-90	7-27	14-18		40	25
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Cardwell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

42-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-90

FG %

19-49

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-27

11-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 4-0

Oct 23

SAC116@

PHX120

Nov 27

PHX112@

SAC100

Jan 3

SAC102@

PHX129

Mar 4

PHX114@

SAC103today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX-36078%

SAC+28526%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -9.5↗SpreadBet PHX -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat SAC 114-103. C. Gillespie led with 17 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. PHX outscored the other side 37-25 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 26 REB · 21 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

44 PTS · 27 REB · 10 AST

GS 42

SACstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 31 REB · 17 AST

GS 70

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC3rd Quarter · 7:50 · 68-63

+9pp→ 18% WP

Royce O'Neale · blocks Malik Monk 's 7-foot pullup jump shot

PHX3rd Quarter · 6:05 · 76-63

+10pp→ 91% WP

Nique Clifford · enters the game for DeMar DeRozan

SAC3rd Quarter · 6:48 · 68-63

+14pp→ 19% WP

Russell Westbrook · blocks Devin Booker 's 14-foot driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	22	37	31	24	114
SAC	30	25	20	28	103

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · SAC won 2

Gillespie 9

Monk 11

Booker 11

Westbrook 10

Clifford 8

Gillespie 10

Allen 5

DeRozan 9

PHX

SAC

Shooting comparison

PHX

SAC

46%

42-92

46%

41-90

39%

19-49

3PT

26%

7-27

65%

11-17

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 454 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 114·SAC 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 114·SAC 103
Q4·21.7
Royce O'Neale defensive rebound
PHX 114·SAC 103
Q4·23.9
Killian Hayes misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 114·SAC 103
Q4·30.8
Mark Williams makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Devin Booker assists)
·
PHX 114·SAC 103
Q4·46.6
Mark Williams defensive rebound
PHX 112·SAC 103
Q4·48.6
Precious Achiuwa misses 9-foot two point shot
PHX 112·SAC 103
−0.7pp
Q4·1:02
Jalen Green traveling turnover
PHX 112·SAC 103
Q4·1:23
Maxime Raynaud makes running layup (Killian Hayes assists)
·
PHX 112·SAC 103
Q4·1:30
Nique Clifford defensive rebound
PHX 112·SAC 101
Q4·1:33
Collin Gillespie misses 16-foot step back jumpshot
PHX 112·SAC 101
Q4·1:57
Maxime Raynaud makes driving layup (Nique Clifford assists)
·
PHX 112·SAC 101
Q4·2:02
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
PHX 112·SAC 99
Q4·2:04
Devin Booker misses driving layup
PHX 112·SAC 99
Q4·2:23
Jalen Green defensive rebound
PHX 112·SAC 99
Q4·2:26
Daeqwon Plowden misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHX 112·SAC 99
Q4·2:38
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
PHX 112·SAC 99
Q4·2:40
Mark Williams misses tip shot
PHX 112·SAC 99
Q4·2:41
Mark Williams offensive rebound
PHX 112·SAC 99
Q4·2:41
Jalen Green misses 18-foot step back jumpshot
PHX 112·SAC 99
Q4·3:01
Killian Hayes makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 112·SAC 99
Q4·3:10
Killian Hayes enters the game for Russell Westbrook
·
PHX 112·SAC 96
Q4·3:10
Daeqwon Plowden enters the game for DeMar DeRozan
·
PHX 112·SAC 96
Q4·3:10
Kings Full timeout
PHX 112·SAC 96
Q4·3:12
Devin Booker makes 24-foot running jump shot (Collin Gillespie assists)
·
PHX 112·SAC 96
Q4·3:18
Jalen Green defensive rebound
PHX 109·SAC 96
Q4·3:22
Nique Clifford misses 22-foot three point jumper
PHX 109·SAC 96
Q4·3:26
Nique Clifford defensive rebound
PHX 109·SAC 96
Q4·3:30
Royce O'Neale misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 109·SAC 96
Q4·3:50
Jalen Green defensive rebound
PHX 109·SAC 96

Betting line

PHX -9.5·O/U 224.5·PHX -360/SAC +285

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 114–103.

PHX -9.5 cashed (won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high
Dillon BrooksPHX
20.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Domantas SabonisSAC
4.3± 2.0high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Jalen GreenPHX
1.2± 1.3high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

SAC

53.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

112.2

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR