NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16NY

40-22

11195

TOR

35-26

NBATue, Mar 3FinalSeriesNY leads series 4-0VegasNY -2.5

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Brandon Ingram

F · #3

24.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 5:02

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	27	15	5-6	2-2	3-4	+8	5	0
K. TownsC · #32	29	21	10-17	1-4	—	+7	12	6
J. HartG · #3	31	12	6-7	0-1	0-2	+14	7	7
M. BridgesG · #25	32	11	4-7	1-2	2-2	+11	2	4
J. BrunsonG · #11	37	26	10-22	2-7	4-4	+7	2	10
Bench
J. SochanF · #20	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	19	8	3-6	2-4	—	+4	2	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	20	2	1-1	—	—	0	10	0
A. HukportiC · #55	1	0	—	—	—	+2	2	0
L. ShametG · #44	24	12	5-11	2-7	—	+6	0	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	17	4	2-4	0-2	—	+19	1	5
K. McCullar Jr.G · #9	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
T. KolekG · #13	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		111	46-81	10-29	9-12		43	32
DNP: J. Clarkson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	37	31	11-20	3-5	6-7	-7	2	4
R. BarrettF · #9	37	20	9-13	1-3	1-2	-16	4	3
S. BarnesF · #4	36	14	5-9	1-3	3-3	-2	4	1
J. PoeltlC · #19	30	9	4-6	—	1-1	-10	7	0
I. QuickleyG · #5	33	13	4-14	3-10	2-2	-9	3	12
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	16	4	1-6	0-1	2-2	-2	4	1
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. BattleF · #77	5	0	—	—	—	-11	0	0
J. MogboF · #2	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	24	4	1-4	0-2	2-2	-9	3	3
J. WalterG · #14	18	0	0-3	0-3	—	-14	1	0
A. MartinG · #55	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
G. DickG · #1	1	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	0
Team		95	35-77	8-28	17-19		28	24
DNP: G. Temple

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

46-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-77

FG %

10-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-28

9-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 4-0

Nov 30

TOR94@

NY116

Dec 10

NY117@

TOR101

Jan 29

NY119@

TOR92

Mar 4

NY111@

TOR95today

Apr 10

TOR95@

NY112

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-14860%

TOR+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -2.5↗SpreadBet NY -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat TOR 111-95. J. Brunson paced them with 26 PTS, 2 REB, 10 AST. NY outscored the other side 24-13 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 28 REB · 27 AST

GS 78

Bench(8)

26 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST

GS 21

TORstarters 92% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 20 REB · 20 AST

GS 71

Bench(9)

8 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR1st Quarter · 4:43 · 15-22

+24pp→ 59% WP

Brandon Ingram · makes free throw 1 of 2

NY2nd Quarter · 6:18 · 50-39

+9pp→ 87% WP

Mitchell Robinson · lost ball turnover (Immanuel Quickley steals)

TOR4th Quarter · 5:02 · 95-93

+30pp→ 34% WP

shot clock turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	32	36	19	24	111
TOR	31	27	24	13	95

Period scoring

NY won 3 · TOR won 1

Anunoby 11

Ingram 34

Towns 9

Ingram 21

Brunson 5

Quickley 8

Brunson 15

Barrett 9

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

57%

46-81

45%

35-77

34%

10-29

3PT

29%

8-28

75%

9-12

89%

17-19

Play-by-play · 428 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·16.2
Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·19.0
Alijah Martin misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·29.5
Ariel Hukporti out of bounds lost ball turnover
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·39.2
Jose Alvarado defensive rebound
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·42.4
Gradey Dick misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·50.1
Kevin McCullar Jr. enters the game for Mikal Bridges
·
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·50.1
Tyler Kolek enters the game for Josh Hart
·
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·50.1
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·50.1
A.J. Lawson enters the game for RJ Barrett
·
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·50.1
Gradey Dick enters the game for Immanuel Quickley
·
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·50.1
Alijah Martin enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·50.1
Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·50.1
Raptors Full timeout
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·50.1
Josh Hart makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Mikal Bridges assists)
·
NY 111·TOR 95
Q4·57.7
Ariel Hukporti offensive rebound
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·59.6
Josh Hart misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·59.6
Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·59.6
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·59.6
Jose Alvarado enters the game for OG Anunoby
·
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·59.6
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·59.6
Josh Hart misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·59.6
RJ Barrett personal foul
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·59.6
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·1:01
Immanuel Quickley misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·1:06
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 1
NY 109·TOR 95
Q4·1:06
Jamal Shead enters the game for Jakob Poeltl
·
NY 108·TOR 95
Q4·1:06
Scottie Barnes shooting foul
NY 108·TOR 95
Q4·1:06
Jalen Brunson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
NY 108·TOR 95

Betting line

NY -2.5·O/U 221.5·NY -148/TOR +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into Toronto Raptors and beat them, 111–95.

NY -2.5 cashed (won by 16). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

TOR

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

48.1%

116.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR