NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+26MIA

BKN

15-46

98124

MIA

33-29

NBATue, Mar 3FinalSeriesMIA leads series 2-0VegasMIA -12.5

BKN · top performer

Noah Clowney

F · #21

13.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:24

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	27	9	3-17	0-9	3-4	-18	3	3
N. ClowneyF · #21	27	17	4-8	1-4	8-9	-14	7	0
N. ClaxtonC · #33	28	4	2-7	—	—	-19	5	3
T. MannG · #14	27	8	3-5	0-1	2-2	-13	3	2
N. TraoreG · #88	23	14	5-12	2-4	2-2	-23	2	0
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
Z. WilliamsF · #1	23	16	3-10	2-5	8-9	-11	1	2
J. MinottF · #00	14	0	0-2	0-2	—	-8	3	1
G. NelsonF · #16	3	3	—	—	3-4	-1	0	0
D. WolfF · #2	21	11	5-10	1-3	—	-12	5	5
D. SharpeC · #20	17	10	5-6	—	—	-6	8	4
O. AgbajiG · #30	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
B. SarafG · #77	25	6	3-7	0-2	—	-3	1	4
Team		98	33-86	6-32	26-30		38	24

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	27	13	5-9	1-4	2-2	+10	7	4
B. AdebayoC · #13	35	23	11-24	1-7	—	+22	9	4
D. MitchellG · #45	26	8	3-5	2-3	—	+9	3	4
T. HerroG · #14	28	22	8-15	1-4	5-5	+8	3	2
P. LarssonG · #9	18	3	1-5	0-2	1-2	+13	2	3
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	20	12	3-6	3-6	3-3	+18	3	1
M. GardnerF · #15	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	+6	0	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	27	20	6-13	2-3	6-8	+14	5	4
K. WareC · #7	29	11	5-8	1-3	—	+12	13	1
J. YoungG · #17	3	0	0-1	—	—	+1	0	0
K. JakucionisG · #25	22	9	2-4	1-3	4-4	+17	1	5
Team		124	45-91	13-36	21-24		46	28
DNP: N. Jovic, N. Powell, D. Smith

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

33-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-91

FG %

6-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-36

26-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 2-0

Dec 19

MIA106@

BKN95

Mar 4

BKN98@

MIA124today

Mar 6

BKN110@

MIA126

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+49017%

MIA-67587%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -12.5↗SpreadBet MIA -12.5↗

Line movement · 4 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat BKN 124-98. B. Adebayo led with 23 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. MIA outscored the other side 33-23 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST

GS 29

Bench(8)

46 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST

GS 37

MIAstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 24 REB · 17 AST

GS 60

Bench(6)

55 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST

GS 55

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN1st Quarter · 2:04 · 26-24

+8pp→ 26% WP

Danny Wolf · makes 25-foot three pointer

MIA2nd Quarter · 7:24 · 39-49

+8pp→ 91% WP

Terance Mann · enters the game for Ziaire Williams

MIA2nd Quarter · 7:04 · 41-50

+6pp→ 90% WP

Davion Mitchell · enters the game for Kasparas Jakucionis

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	28	26	21	23	98
MIA	34	35	22	33	124

Period scoring

BKN won 0 · MIA won 4

Traore 5

Adebayo 11

Traore 7

Herro 12

Williams 6

Herro 7

Clowney 7

Fontecchio 9

BKN

MIA

Shooting comparison

BKN

MIA

38%

33-86

49%

45-91

19%

6-32

3PT

36%

13-36

87%

26-30

88%

21-24

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 98·MIA 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 98·MIA 124
Q4·8.1
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
BKN 98·MIA 124
Q4·11.3
Jalen Wilson misses 23-foot three point jumper
BKN 98·MIA 124
Q4·25.6
Kel'el Ware makes driving floating jump shot
BKN 98·MIA 124
Q4·26.1
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
BKN 98·MIA 122
Q4·30.2
Kasparas Jakucionis misses 26-foot three point jumper
BKN 98·MIA 122
Q4·41.2
Grant Nelson makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 98·MIA 122
Q4·41.2
Nets offensive team rebound
BKN 97·MIA 122
Q4·41.2
Grant Nelson misses free throw 1 of 2
BKN 97·MIA 122
Q4·41.2
Jahmir Young shooting foul
BKN 97·MIA 122
Q4·41.2
Nets offensive team rebound
BKN 97·MIA 122
Q4·43.2
Ben Saraf misses 25-foot three point jumper
BKN 97·MIA 122
Q4·58.8
Simone Fontecchio steps out of bounds turnover
BKN 97·MIA 122
Q4·1:13
Grant Nelson makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 97·MIA 122
Q4·1:13
Grant Nelson makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 96·MIA 122
Q4·1:13
(01:13) [Nets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
BKN 95·MIA 122
Q4·1:13
Kel'el Ware shooting foul
BKN 95·MIA 122
Q4·1:37
Kel'el Ware steps out of bounds turnover
BKN 95·MIA 122
Q4·1:38
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
BKN 95·MIA 122
Q4·1:40
Jahmir Young misses 11-foot two point shot
BKN 95·MIA 122
Q4·1:50
Ochai Agbaji out of bounds bad pass turnover
BKN 95·MIA 122
Q4·2:06
Kasparas Jakucionis makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 95·MIA 122
Q4·2:06
Kasparas Jakucionis makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 95·MIA 121
Q4·2:06
Ben Saraf shooting foul
BKN 95·MIA 120
Q4·2:16
Danny Wolf loose ball foul
BKN 95·MIA 120
Q4·2:16
Heat offensive team rebound
BKN 95·MIA 120
Q4·2:17
Kasparas Jakucionis misses 25-foot three point jumper
BKN 95·MIA 120
Q4·2:26
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
BKN 95·MIA 120
Q4·2:29
Ben Saraf misses two point shot
BKN 95·MIA 120

Betting line

MIA -12.5·O/U 225.5·BKN +490/MIA -675

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat held off Brooklyn Nets, 124–98. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA -12.5 cashed (won by 26). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Ziaire WilliamsBKN · F
DEFL3.295
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs BKN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high

Assists

Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high
Bam AdebayoMIA
3.9± 2.6high

Blocks

Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high
Trevon ScottBKN
0.8± 1.3low

Steals

Josh MinottBKN
1.3± 1.0high
Trevon ScottBKN
1.3± 1.8low
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

MIA

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.8%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR