NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CLE

DET

45-15

109113

CLE

39-24

NBATue, Mar 3FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDET -2.5

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Evan Mobley

C · #4

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 5:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	31	19	6-12	1-3	6-7	+9	5	0
D. RobinsonF · #55	34	8	2-6	2-5	2-2	+4	2	3
J. DurenC · #0	27	24	7-9	—	10-14	+6	14	1
C. CunninghamG · #2	39	10	4-16	0-3	2-2	-11	6	14
A. ThompsonG · #9	31	16	7-11	0-1	2-4	+6	6	6
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	22	4	2-4	—	—	-10	2	2
R. Holland IIF · #5	19	8	3-4	2-3	—	-17	5	1
J. GreenG · #31	13	13	5-7	3-5	—	-2	1	0
C. LeVertG · #8	13	2	1-4	0-3	—	-12	2	1
D. JenkinsG · #24	11	5	2-4	1-1	—	+7	1	1
Team		109	39-77	9-24	22-29		44	29
DNP: P. Reed, B. Klintman, K. Huerter, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	21	8	4-7	—	0-2	-3	3	0
E. MobleyC · #4	32	18	5-9	2-4	6-8	-2	5	4
J. HardenG · #1	35	18	5-17	2-9	6-6	-6	5	7
S. MerrillG · #5	27	9	3-10	3-7	—	-6	0	2
J. TysonG · #20	32	22	8-15	5-12	1-3	+8	3	4
Bench
T. BryantC · #3	16	9	2-5	2-4	3-3	+12	5	0
D. SchroderG · #8	28	15	6-10	2-3	1-1	+16	5	5
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	22	7	3-8	1-4	—	+6	8	3
K. EllisG · #14	27	7	2-5	0-3	3-3	-5	4	2
Team		113	38-86	17-46	20-26		38	27
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Enaruna, N. Tomlin, R. Minix, T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

39-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-86

FG %

9-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-46

22-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-26

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

CLE wins series 4-3

May 5

CLE101@

DET111

May 7

CLE97@

DET107

May 9

DET109@

CLE116

May 12

DET103@

CLE112

May 14

CLE117@

DET113

May 15

DET115@

CLE94

May 18

CLE125@

DET94

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-14259%

CLE+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -2.5↗SpreadBet DET -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat DET 113-109. E. Mobley led with 18 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. CLE outscored the other side 29-21 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 33 REB · 24 AST

GS 70

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

GS 27

CLEstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 16 REB · 17 AST

GS 54

Bench(4)

38 PTS · 22 REB · 10 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE4th Quarter · 4:32 · 99-104

+13pp→ 78% WP

Evan Mobley · makes 24-foot three pointer

CLE4th Quarter · 2:38 · 103-107

+16pp→ 76% WP

Sam Merrill · makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)

DET4th Quarter · 5:00 · 97-101

+20pp→ 38% WP

Keon Ellis · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	27	21	32	29	109
CLE	25	29	35	24	113

Period scoring

DET won 2 · CLE won 2

Duren 6

Harden 7

Green 6

Stewart 9

Harris 17

Jr. 7

Duren 9

Tyson 7

DET

CLE

Shooting comparison

DET

CLE

51%

39-77

44%

38-86

38%

9-24

3PT

37%

17-46

76%

22-29

77%

20-26

Play-by-play · 462 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 109·CLE 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 109·CLE 113
Q4·0.0
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 109·CLE 113
Q4·0.0
Jalen Duren misses heave jump shot
DET 109·CLE 113
+1pp
Q4·1.3
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
DET 109·CLE 113
Q4·1.3
Jaylon Tyson misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 109·CLE 113
−1pp
Q4·1.3
Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 109·CLE 113
Q4·1.3
Javonte Green personal foul
DET 109·CLE 112
+2pp
Q4·3.2
Jalen Duren makes 1-foot running dunk (Ausar Thompson assists)
·
DET 109·CLE 112
+0.6pp
Q4·7.4
Dennis Schroder lost ball turnover (Javonte Green steals)
·
DET 107·CLE 112
Q4·21.5
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 107·CLE 112
Q4·21.5
Cavaliers Full timeout
DET 107·CLE 112
Q4·21.5
Ausar Thompson makes 1-foot running dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)
·
DET 107·CLE 112
−2pp
Q4·22.9
Dennis Schroder lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
·
DET 105·CLE 112
+0.7pp
Q4·30.2
Ausar Thompson kicked ball violation
DET 105·CLE 112
−0.9pp
Q4·46.6
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
DET 105·CLE 112
+0.5pp
Q4·48.6
Tobias Harris misses 12-foot fade away jump shot
DET 105·CLE 112
+2pp
Q4·51.8
Jalen Duren offensive rebound
DET 105·CLE 112
−1pp
Q4·54.8
Duncan Robinson misses 24-foot three point jumper
DET 105·CLE 112
+2pp
Q4·1:03
James Harden makes 5-foot two point shot
DET 105·CLE 112
+3pp
Q4·1:17
Cade Cunningham out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
DET 105·CLE 110
+5pp
Q4·1:22
Pistons Full timeout
DET 105·CLE 110
Q4·1:22
Dennis Schroder makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
DET 105·CLE 110
+6pp
Q4·1:28
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
DET 105·CLE 108
+2pp
Q4·1:31
Ausar Thompson misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DET 105·CLE 108
+7pp
Q4·1:46
Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 105·CLE 108
Q4·1:46
Cavaliers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DET 105·CLE 107
−6pp
Q4·1:46
Evan Mobley misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 105·CLE 107
−5pp
Q4·1:46
Cade Cunningham shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DET 105·CLE 107
+11pp
Q4·1:56
Cade Cunningham personal foulBIG MOMENT
DET 105·CLE 107
+13pp

Betting line

DET -2.5·O/U 227.5·DET -142/CLE +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Detroit Pistons, 113–109. Decided by 4.

CLE +2.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

CLE

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

115.9

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

27.1

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR