NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+27CHA

DAL

21-40

90117

CHA

31-31

NBATue, Mar 3FinalSeriesCHA wins series 2-0VegasCHA -13.5

DAL · top performer

Brandon Williams

G · #10

14.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

14.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:19

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	29	9	4-11	0-2	1-1	-9	8	3
D. GaffordF · #21	22	10	5-8	—	—	-19	6	2
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	28	13	4-11	1-4	4-6	-18	2	3
B. WilliamsG · #10	27	18	4-10	0-1	10-11	-13	4	1
M. ChristieG · #00	33	11	4-15	1-9	2-2	-1	5	1
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	26	12	3-5	—	6-8	-8	4	3
C. MartinF · #16	26	9	3-7	0-2	3-8	-29	1	0
R. NembhardG · #9	21	6	1-4	1-2	3-4	-14	5	4
J. PoulakidasG · #1	14	0	0-2	0-1	—	-7	5	2
A. JohnsonG · #8	13	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-17	2	0
Team		90	28-74	3-22	31-42		42	19
DNP: N. Marshall, K. Thompson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	31	11	3-13	1-5	4-7	0	3	5
M. DiabateF · #14	23	7	3-4	—	1-1	+10	8	0
B. MillerF · #24	21	17	6-10	2-5	3-3	+12	5	4
L. BallG · #1	29	15	5-19	4-13	1-1	-5	5	9
K. KnueppelG · #7	32	13	6-14	1-7	0-1	+17	6	5
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	21	12	4-6	4-6	—	+23	4	3
T. SalaunF · #31	1	0	0-1	0-1	0-2	+3	0	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	18	10	4-4	—	2-2	+18	5	3
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	10	8	2-3	2-3	2-2	-1	2	0
J. GreenG · #10	25	11	4-6	3-5	—	+36	3	2
T. MannG · #23	4	0	—	—	—	-8	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	24	13	5-8	3-6	—	+30	8	1
Team		117	42-88	20-51	13-19		49	32
DNP: X. Tillman

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

28-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-88

FG %

3-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-51

31-42

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA wins series 2-0

Jan 30

CHA123@

DAL121

Mar 4

DAL90@

CHA117today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+49017%

CHA-67587%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -13.5↗SpreadBet CHA -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat DAL 117-90. B. Miller led with 17 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. CHA outscored the other side 35-24 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 25 REB · 10 AST

GS 40

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 22

CHAstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 27 REB · 23 AST

GS 50

Bench(7)

54 PTS · 22 REB · 9 AST

GS 51

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	23	25	24	18	90
CHA	31	26	35	25	117

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · CHA won 4

Williams 9

Miller 13

Washington 10

Green 6

Powell 7

Knueppel 7

Christie 6

Nembhard 14

DAL

CHA

Shooting comparison

DAL

CHA

38%

28-74

48%

42-88

14%

3-22

3PT

39%

20-51

74%

31-42

68%

13-19

Play-by-play · 509 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 90·CHA 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 90·CHA 117
Q4·18.1
shot clock turnover
DAL 90·CHA 117
Q4·37.6
Grant Williams defensive rebound
·
DAL 90·CHA 117
Q4·43.2
John Poulakidas misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 90·CHA 117
Q4·55.2
Pat Connaughton makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 90·CHA 117
Q4·55.2
Pat Connaughton makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 90·CHA 116
Q4·55.2
AJ Johnson personal foul
DAL 90·CHA 115
Q4·1:10
Ryan Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 90·CHA 115
Q4·1:10
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Tidjane Salaun
·
DAL 89·CHA 115
Q4·1:10
Ryan Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 89·CHA 115
Q4·1:10
Sion James personal take foul
DAL 88·CHA 115
Q4·1:10
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
DAL 88·CHA 115
Q4·1:12
Tidjane Salaun misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 88·CHA 115
Q4·1:12
Hornets offensive team rebound
DAL 88·CHA 115
Q4·1:12
Tidjane Salaun misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 88·CHA 115
Q4·1:12
Caleb Martin shooting foul
DAL 88·CHA 115
Q4·1:29
Ryan Nembhard bad pass turnover (Sion James steals)
·
DAL 88·CHA 115
+1pp
Q4·1:44
Josh Green makes driving layup (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)
·
DAL 88·CHA 115
Q4·1:45
Ryan Kalkbrenner offensive rebound
DAL 88·CHA 113
Q4·1:49
Tidjane Salaun misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 88·CHA 113
Q4·2:11
Caleb Martin bad pass turnover (Sion James steals)
·
DAL 88·CHA 113
Q4·2:21
Sion James makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
DAL 88·CHA 113
Q4·2:36
Hornets defensive team rebound
DAL 88·CHA 110
Q4·2:37
Caleb Martin misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 88·CHA 110
Q4·2:37
Tidjane Salaun enters the game for Kon Knueppel
·
DAL 88·CHA 110
Q4·2:37
Caleb Martin makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 88·CHA 110
Q4·2:37
Josh Green shooting foul
DAL 87·CHA 110
Q4·3:01
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Kon Knueppel assists)
·
DAL 87·CHA 110
Q4·3:17
Josh Green defensive rebound
DAL 87·CHA 108

Betting line

CHA -13.5·O/U 226.5·DAL +490/CHA -675

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Dallas Mavericks, 117–90. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -13.5 cashed (won by 27). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

CHA

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.2

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR