LAC
29-31
GS
31-30
LAC · top performer
Kawhi Leonard
F · #2
23
Pts
8
Reb
4
Ast
GS · top performer
Nate Williams
G · #19
18
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 11:36
NBA · LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 23 | 9-14 | 3-6 | 2-2 | +16 | 8 | 4 | |
| 24 | 9 | 2-12 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | |
| 24 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-4 | — | +7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 26 | 16 | 7-10 | 2-4 | — | +18 | 7 | 7 | |
| 22 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | — | +3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 21 | 11 | 3-6 | — | 5-6 | +10 | 9 | 0 | |
| 25 | 12 | 5-6 | — | 2-2 | +15 | 6 | 0 | |
| 23 | 12 | 4-9 | 2-7 | 2-2 | +5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 31 | 17 | 6-13 | 0-2 | 5-5 | +12 | 7 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 114 | 42-85 | 9-31 | 21-23 | 52 | 18 | ||
| DNP: I. Jackson, B. Bogdanovic | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 1-2 | -18 | 2 | 6 | |
| 27 | 17 | 5-11 | 4-8 | 3-5 | -15 | 6 | 3 | |
| 27 | 7 | 3-14 | 1-7 | — | -16 | 4 | 2 | |
| 25 | 10 | 4-12 | 2-8 | — | -1 | 3 | 1 | |
| 37 | 22 | 9-18 | 3-6 | 1-2 | -13 | 7 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 31 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-3 | — | -5 | 10 | 3 | |
| 12 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-3 | — | +5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 22 | 18 | 5-8 | 3-4 | 5-6 | +1 | 2 | 2 | |
| 21 | 9 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | -1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Team | 101 | 36-93 | 17-48 | 12-17 | 40 | 26 | ||
| DNP: K. Porzingis, G. Payton II, W. Richard | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
39
18
Ast
26
Team stats
LAC
Away
Stat
GS
Home
42-85
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-93
49
FG %
39
9-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-48
21-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-17
18
Assists
26
14
Turnovers
12
Season series
LAC lead series 2-1
LAC79@GS98GS102@LAC103LAC114@GS101todayGS110@LAC115Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAC -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
216.5
Defensive · -9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAC-11253%GS-10852%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
216.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
LAC beat GS 114-101. K. Leonard led with 23 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST. LAC outscored the other side 37-22 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs LAC
Starters vs bench
production by unitLACstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST
GS 57
Bench(8)
52 PTS · 25 REB · 3 AST
GS 41
GSstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 22 REB · 15 AST
GS 35
Bench(5)
41 PTS · 18 REB · 11 AST
GS 39
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBennedict Mathurin · lost ball turnover (Gui Santos steals)
Malevy Leons · misses 16-foot two point shot
Kris Dunn · makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Darius Garland assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 19 | 23 | 35 | 37 | 114 |
| GS | 31 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 101 |
Period scoring
LAC won 2 · GS won 2
Q1
Leonard 5
Podziemski 16
Q2
Garland 5
Podziemski 10
Q3
Leonard 8
Horford 8
Q4
Mathurin 11
Post 6
Shooting comparison
49%
42-85
FG
39%
36-93
29%
9-31
3PT
35%
17-48
91%
21-23
FT
71%
12-17
Play-by-play · 489 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 114·GS 101
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 114·GS 101
- Q4·9.8
Quinten Post makes 1-foot dunk (Pat Spencer assists)
·
LAC 114·GS 101
- Q4·24.7
Jordan Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 114·GS 99
- Q4·24.7
Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 113·GS 99
- Q4·24.7
Nate Williams shooting foul
LAC 112·GS 99
- Q4·26.0
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAC 112·GS 99
- Q4·26.2
Quinten Post blocks Cam Christie 's 2-foot dunk
·
LAC 112·GS 99
- Q4·46.5
Nate Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Quinten Post assists)
·
LAC 112·GS 99
- Q4·57.2
Bennedict Mathurin makes driving layup
LAC 112·GS 96
- Q4·1:18
Quinten Post makes two point shot
LAC 110·GS 96
- Q4·1:18
Quinten Post offensive rebound
LAC 110·GS 94
- Q4·1:19
Quinten Post misses two point shot
LAC 110·GS 94
- Q4·1:29
Quinten Post offensive rebound
LAC 110·GS 94
- Q4·1:33
Quinten Post misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAC 110·GS 94
- Q4·1:42
TyTy Washington Jr. personal foul
LAC 110·GS 94
- Q4·1:53
Bennedict Mathurin makes 17-foot two point shot (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)
·
LAC 110·GS 94
- Q4·2:05
Norchad Omier offensive rebound
LAC 108·GS 94
- Q4·2:07
Bennedict Mathurin misses driving layup
LAC 108·GS 94
- Q4·2:29
Gui Santos makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)
·
LAC 108·GS 94
- Q4·2:51
TyTy Washington Jr. enters the game for Yanic Konan Niederhauser
·
LAC 108·GS 91
- Q4·2:51
Norchad Omier enters the game for Kris Dunn
·
LAC 108·GS 91
- Q4·2:51
Cam Christie enters the game for Kawhi Leonard
·
LAC 108·GS 91
- Q4·2:51
Quinten Post enters the game for Draymond Green
·
LAC 108·GS 91
- Q4·2:51
Pat Spencer enters the game for De'Anthony Melton
·
LAC 108·GS 91
- Q4·2:51
Malevy Leons enters the game for Brandin Podziemski
·
LAC 108·GS 91
- Q4·2:51
Warriors Full timeout
LAC 108·GS 91
- Q4·2:52
Jordan Miller makes 1-foot driving dunk (Kris Dunn assists)
·
LAC 108·GS 91
- Q4·3:04
Clippers defensive team rebound
LAC 106·GS 91
- Q4·3:04
De'Anthony Melton misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAC 106·GS 91
Betting line
LAC -1.5·O/U 216.5·LAC -112/GS -108
Recap · NBA
A Clippers went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 114–101.
LAC -1.5 cashed (won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 216.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Kawhi LeonardLAC · FUSG%33.399
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · CTS%69.198
Kris DunnLAC · GDEFL3.697
Brook LopezLAC · CCONT8.396
Draymond GreenGS · FCONT7.593
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · LAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs LAC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Kawhi LeonardLAC25.5± 4.3high
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Kawhi LeonardLAC6.5± 1.4high
- John CollinsLAC5.8± 2.5high
- Kristaps PorzingisGS5.6± 2.4high
Assists
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS4.8± 1.7high
Blocks
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC1.3± 1.5high
- Isaiah JacksonLAC1.2± 0.8high
Steals
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAC
league avg
GS
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.1%
48.5%
FG%
47.0
46.2%
113.9
PPG
114.9
114.5
23.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.8
13.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1