NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+24LAL

SAC

14-48

104128

LAL

36-24

NBASun, Mar 1FinalSeriesLAL win series 3-1VegasLAL -12.5

SAC · top performer

Nique Clifford

G · #5

20.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

27.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ LAL

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	27	8	4-10	0-1	—	-11	9	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	34	16	8-10	0-1	—	-12	13	1
R. WestbrookG · #18	22	14	6-16	1-7	1-1	-12	4	5
D. DeRozanG · #10	22	9	3-5	1-2	2-2	-9	4	8
N. CliffordG · #5	42	26	11-18	1-2	3-4	-17	7	4
Bench
D. EubanksF · #19	14	10	4-7	—	2-2	-12	2	1
M. MonkG · #0	16	10	3-7	2-5	2-2	-12	1	2
D. PlowdenG · #29	25	2	0-6	0-4	2-2	-30	2	2
D. CarterG · #22	21	6	2-7	0-2	2-2	-14	2	3
P. Baldwin Jr.G · #23	11	3	1-2	1-1	—	+4	6	1
K. HayesG · #3	6	0	0-2	0-1	—	+5	2	2
Team		104	42-90	6-26	14-15		52	30
DNP: D. McDermott

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	27	24	8-15	3-4	5-6	+13	1	5
D. AytonC · #5	18	12	6-6	—	0-1	+2	4	2
M. SmartG · #36	25	9	3-5	3-5	—	+17	3	3
L. DoncicG · #77	29	28	10-16	4-8	4-7	+18	5	9
A. ReavesG · #15	27	12	3-9	2-6	4-4	+15	0	5
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	14	6	3-3	—	—	+7	6	0
R. HachimuraF · #28	22	8	2-8	2-4	2-2	+12	2	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	22	4	2-10	0-3	—	+11	7	1
D. KnechtF · #4	4	2	1-1	—	—	-1	1	0
A. ThieroF · #1	4	3	1-1	—	1-1	-1	1	1
J. HayesC · #11	13	4	2-2	—	0-1	+16	5	1
L. KennardG · #10	26	11	4-10	3-5	—	+17	1	5
K. BufkinG · #18	4	2	1-5	0-2	—	-1	1	0
B. JamesG · #9	6	3	1-3	1-2	—	-5	0	2
Team		128	47-94	18-39	16-22		37	34
DNP: J. Vanderbilt

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

42-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-94

FG %

6-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-39

14-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 3-1

Oct 27

LAL127@

SAC120

Dec 29

SAC101@

LAL125

Jan 13

LAL112@

SAC124

Mar 2

SAC104@

LAL128today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+52516%

LAL-75088%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -12.5↗SpreadBet LAL -12.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat SAC 128-104. L. Doncic paced them with 28 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. LAL outscored the other side 36-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 37 REB · 19 AST

GS 58

Bench(6)

31 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST

GS 26

LALstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 13 REB · 24 AST

GS 86

Bench(9)

43 PTS · 24 REB · 10 AST

GS 38

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	18	31	27	28	104
LAL	36	28	32	32	128

Period scoring

SAC won 1 · LAL won 3

Clifford 8

Doncic 12

Westbrook 10

Kennard 6

Clifford 12

Doncic 13

Raynaud 10

James 10

SAC

LAL

Shooting comparison

SAC

LAL

47%

42-90

50%

47-94

23%

6-26

3PT

46%

18-39

93%

14-15

73%

16-22

Play-by-play · 449 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 104·LAL 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 104·LAL 128
Q4·6.9
Devin Carter makes running layup (Killian Hayes assists)
· ·
SAC 104·LAL 128
Q4·10.8
Killian Hayes defensive rebound
·
SAC 102·LAL 128
Q4·14.1
Jake LaRavia misses 27-foot three point shot
SAC 102·LAL 128
Q4·18.0
Lakers offensive team rebound
SAC 102·LAL 128
Q4·18.9
Patrick Baldwin Jr. blocks Kobe Bufkin 's 3-foot driving layup
·
SAC 102·LAL 128
Q4·36.9
Maxime Raynaud makes 1-foot driving dunk (Devin Carter assists)
·
SAC 102·LAL 128
Q4·45.3
Devin Carter defensive rebound
SAC 100·LAL 128
Q4·47.6
Bronny James misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
SAC 100·LAL 128
Q4·1:01
Nique Clifford makes 2-foot two point shot
SAC 100·LAL 128
Q4·1:12
Dalton Knecht makes running layup
SAC 98·LAL 128
Q4·1:16
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
SAC 98·LAL 126
Q4·1:17
Killian Hayes misses 9-foot fade away jump shot
·
SAC 98·LAL 126
Q4·1:27
Killian Hayes defensive rebound
·
SAC 98·LAL 126
Q4·1:30
Kobe Bufkin misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
SAC 98·LAL 126
Q4·1:38
Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound
SAC 98·LAL 126
Q4·1:41
Killian Hayes misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
SAC 98·LAL 126
Q4·1:49
Kobe Bufkin makes 1-foot layup (Bronny James assists)
· ·
SAC 98·LAL 126
Q4·2:06
Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 27-foot three pointer (Killian Hayes assists)
· ·
SAC 98·LAL 124
Q4·2:20
Kings defensive team rebound
SAC 95·LAL 124
Q4·2:23
Kobe Bufkin misses 23-foot running jump shot
SAC 95·LAL 124
Q4·2:26
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
SAC 95·LAL 124
Q4·2:28
Nique Clifford misses driving floating jump shot
SAC 95·LAL 124
Q4·2:45
Bronny James makes 26-foot three pointer (Adou Thiero assists)
· ·
SAC 95·LAL 124
Q4·2:55
Adou Thiero defensive rebound
SAC 95·LAL 121
Q4·2:57
Devin Carter misses driving layup
SAC 95·LAL 121
Q4·3:04
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
SAC 95·LAL 121
Q4·3:08
Kobe Bufkin misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 95·LAL 121
Q4·3:18
Maxime Raynaud makes two point shot
SAC 95·LAL 121

Betting line

LAL -12.5·O/U 235.5·SAC +525/LAL -750

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Sacramento Kings, 128–104. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAL -12.5 cashed (won by 24). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

LAL

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

114.8

25.5

Assists / G

25.0

25.7

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR