NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13OKC

OKC

47-15

10087

DAL

21-39

NBASun, Mar 1FinalSeriesOKC wins series 3-0VegasOKC -16.5

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

25.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Caleb Martin

F · #16

11.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ DAL

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	25	7	3-8	0-1	1-4	+10	5	4
C. HolmgrenC · #7	28	19	8-14	1-5	2-2	+13	9	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	33	30	12-20	1-5	5-6	+13	4	5
L. DortG · #5	21	5	2-6	1-5	—	+11	4	0
C. WallaceG · #22	30	4	2-7	0-3	—	+8	6	8
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	17	0	0-2	0-1	—	+4	5	2
A. CarusoG · #9	22	4	2-5	0-3	—	+4	6	1
K. WilliamsG · #34	6	0	0-3	0-1	—	-1	1	0
I. JoeG · #11	21	14	5-9	3-7	1-1	+2	5	0
A. WigginsG · #21	15	6	2-7	1-3	1-2	+4	0	0
J. McCainG · #3	22	11	5-11	1-5	—	-3	1	1
Team		100	41-92	8-39	10-15		46	22
DNP: B. Boeheim

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	25	4	2-10	0-3	—	-15	2	3
C. MartinF · #16	30	18	6-11	3-5	3-6	-10	3	0
D. GaffordF · #21	22	8	3-9	—	2-2	-9	7	2
B. WilliamsG · #10	24	14	5-12	0-2	4-4	-14	3	3
M. ChristieG · #00	35	14	5-11	4-8	—	-12	7	0
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	21	9	4-5	—	1-2	-4	9	2
M. CisseC · #30	21	0	0-1	—	—	+1	12	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	15	7	3-8	1-5	—	-3	0	1
R. NembhardG · #9	24	7	2-9	1-4	2-2	+1	2	5
A. JohnsonG · #8	22	6	3-9	0-4	—	0	4	4
Team		87	33-85	9-31	12-16		49	20
DNP: P.J. Washington, N. Marshall

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

41-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-85

FG %

8-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-31

10-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC wins series 3-0

Oct 28

OKC101@

DAL94

Dec 6

DAL111@

OKC132

Mar 2

OKC100@

DAL87today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-120092%

DAL+75012%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -16.5↗SpreadBet OKC -16.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat DAL 100-87. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 30 PTS, 4 REB, 5 AST. OKC outscored the other side 36-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST

GS 61

Bench(6)

35 PTS · 18 REB · 4 AST

GS 21

DALstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 22 REB · 8 AST

GS 36

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 27 REB · 12 AST

GS 18

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	36	22	25	17	100
DAL	25	24	20	18	87

Period scoring

OKC won 2 · DAL won 2

Holmgren 10

Gafford 4

McCain 9

Christie 6

Gilgeous-Alexander 12

Martin 5

Joe 8

Williams 6

OKC

DAL

Shooting comparison

OKC

DAL

45%

41-92

39%

33-85

21%

8-39

3PT

29%

9-31

67%

10-15

75%

12-16

Play-by-play · 463 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·15.1
Thunder defensive team rebound
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·17.4
Ryan Nembhard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·28.0
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·30.8
Jared McCain misses 23-foot three point jumper
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·47.7
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·47.7
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·47.9
Dwight Powell out of bounds bad pass turnover
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·50.2
Dwight Powell offensive rebound
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·52.4
AJ Johnson misses 27-foot three point jumper
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·1:01
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·1:04
Jaylin Williams misses 12-foot floating jump shot
· ·
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·1:21
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
· ·
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·1:25
Ryan Nembhard misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·1:43
Mavericks defensive team rebound
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·1:45
Cason Wallace misses 27-foot three point jumper
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·2:06
Max Christie makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Johnson assists)
·
OKC 100·DAL 87
Q4·2:23
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
OKC 100·DAL 84
Q4·2:25
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses free throw 2 of 2
OKC 100·DAL 84
Q4·2:25
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 100·DAL 84
Q4·2:25
Max Christie shooting foul
OKC 99·DAL 84
Q4·2:34
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
· ·
OKC 99·DAL 84
Q4·2:36
Dwight Powell misses driving floating jump shot
OKC 99·DAL 84
Q4·2:57
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 15-foot step back jumpshot (Cason Wallace assists)
·
OKC 99·DAL 84
Q4·3:10
Dwight Powell makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 97·DAL 84
Q4·3:10
Mavericks offensive team rebound
OKC 97·DAL 83
Q4·3:10
Dwight Powell misses free throw 1 of 2
OKC 97·DAL 83
Q4·3:10
Alex Caruso loose ball foul
OKC 97·DAL 83
Q4·3:10
Mavericks offensive team rebound
OKC 97·DAL 83

Betting line

OKC -16.5·O/U 236.5·OKC -1200/DAL +750

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 100–87.

DAL +16.5 cashed (OKC won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 49.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

DAL

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

48.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR