NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16BOS

PHI

33-27

98114

BOS

40-20

NBASun, Mar 1FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBOS -8.5

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

21.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Neemias Queta

C · #88

32.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 8pp · 4th Quarter · 5:12

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	28	14	4-7	—	6-8	0	8	1
A. DrummondC · #1	32	10	3-5	2-4	2-3	-9	12	4
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	34	4	2-10	0-2	—	-7	4	2
T. MaxeyG · #0	43	33	12-34	4-11	5-6	-9	3	6
V. EdgecombeG · #77	40	23	8-21	5-11	2-3	-14	5	3
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	15	4	2-2	—	—	-13	0	1
A. BonaC · #30	16	5	2-4	—	1-2	-7	4	1
C. PaynePG · #20	5	0	—	—	—	-7	0	1
Q. GrimesG · #5	27	5	2-5	1-3	—	-14	1	2
Team		98	35-88	12-31	16-22		37	21
DNP: J. Walker, J. Edwards, K. Lowry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	29	8	3-11	2-9	—	+10	4	2
N. QuetaC · #88	27	27	10-14	—	7-10	+20	17	2
D. WhiteG · #9	39	21	6-16	5-11	4-4	+21	6	8
J. BrownG · #7	38	27	9-17	2-6	7-7	+7	8	8
B. ScheiermanG · #55	32	12	5-12	2-9	—	+15	4	2
Bench
D. BantonF · #45	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
N. VucevicC · #4	21	11	4-9	3-6	—	-4	12	0
P. PritchardG · #11	27	0	0-4	0-4	—	+7	3	5
J. WalshG · #27	14	6	2-6	2-4	—	+9	1	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	13	2	1-2	—	—	-5	4	0
Team		114	40-91	16-49	18-21		59	27
DNP: A. Williams, L. Garza, R. Harper Jr., M. Shulga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

35-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-91

FG %

12-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-49

16-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-21

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

PHI wins series 4-3

Apr 19

PHI91@

BOS123

Apr 21

PHI111@

BOS97

Apr 24

BOS108@

PHI100

Apr 26

BOS128@

PHI96

Apr 28

PHI113@

BOS97

May 1

BOS93@

PHI106

May 2

PHI109@

BOS100

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+27527%

BOS-34578%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -8.5↗SpreadBet BOS -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat PHI 114-98. N. Queta paced them with 27 PTS, 17 REB, 2 AST. BOS outscored the other side 36-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 32 REB · 16 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

14 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST

GS 13

BOSstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 39 REB · 22 AST

GS 83

Bench(5)

19 PTS · 20 REB · 5 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 4:24 · 21-15

+6pp→ 48% WP

Jaylen Brown · misses 20-foot fade away jump shot

BOS4th Quarter · 5:12 · 93-103

+8pp→ 98% WP

Neemias Queta · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2

BOS4th Quarter · 5:02 · 93-103

+7pp→ 97% WP

Sam Hauser · enters the game for Payton Pritchard

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	28	22	33	15	98
BOS	26	36	27	25	114

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · BOS won 2

Maxey 8

Brown 8

Drummond 6

White 10

Maxey 13

Brown 9

Maxey 7

Queta 31

PHI

BOS

Shooting comparison

PHI

BOS

40%

35-88

44%

40-91

39%

12-31

3PT

33%

16-49

73%

16-22

86%

18-21

Play-by-play · 466 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 98·BOS 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 98·BOS 114
Q4·16.4
shot clock turnover
PHI 98·BOS 114
Q4·38.4
Sam Hauser defensive rebound
PHI 98·BOS 114
Q4·42.0
VJ Edgecombe misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHI 98·BOS 114
Q4·50.6
Baylor Scheierman makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)
·
PHI 98·BOS 114
Q4·1:11
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
PHI 98·BOS 111
Q4·1:11
Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 98·BOS 111
Q4·1:19
Neemias Queta makes two point shot
PHI 98·BOS 111
Q4·1:19
Neemias Queta offensive rebound
PHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·1:19
Neemias Queta misses 8-foot floating jump shot
PHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·1:37
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
PHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·1:40
VJ Edgecombe misses 7-foot turnaround jump shot
PHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·1:56
Neemias Queta makes 2-foot dunk
PHI 98·BOS 109
Q4·1:56
Neemias Queta offensive rebound
PHI 98·BOS 107
+0.6pp
Q4·1:58
Jaylen Brown misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHI 98·BOS 107
−0.5pp
Q4·2:05
Baylor Scheierman offensive rebound
PHI 98·BOS 107
+0.7pp
Q4·2:10
Derrick White misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHI 98·BOS 107
Q4·2:24
(02:24) [76ers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [76ers] charged with a timeout
PHI 98·BOS 107
Q4·2:24
76ers Full timeout
PHI 98·BOS 107
−0.9pp
Q4·2:26
Derrick White defensive rebound
PHI 98·BOS 107
Q4·2:26
VJ Edgecombe misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
PHI 98·BOS 107
+0.8pp
Q4·2:36
Neemias Queta makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 98·BOS 107
−0.7pp
Q4·2:36
Neemias Queta makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 98·BOS 106
Q4·2:36
Andre Drummond shooting foul
PHI 98·BOS 105
+2pp
Q4·2:46
VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 98·BOS 105
Q4·2:46
76ers offensive team rebound
PHI 97·BOS 105
+2pp
Q4·2:46
VJ Edgecombe misses free throw 1 of 2
PHI 97·BOS 105
+3pp
Q4·2:46
Neemias Queta shooting foul
PHI 97·BOS 105
−5pp
Q4·2:56
Andre Drummond defensive rebound
PHI 97·BOS 105

Betting line

BOS -8.5·O/U 219.5·PHI +275/BOS -345

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Philadelphia 76ers, 114–98.

BOS -8.5 cashed (won by 16). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI · G
DEFL3.194
VJ EdgecombePHI · G
TOUCHES66.190

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

BOS

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.2

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

24.6

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR