NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CLE

CLE

38-24

106102

BKN

15-45

NBASun, Mar 1FinalSeriesCLE wins series 3-0VegasCLE -12.5

CLE · top performer

James Harden

G · #1

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

Danny Wolf

F · #2

22.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ BKN

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 9.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	32	20	7-12	—	6-8	+5	6	1
E. MobleyC · #4	27	17	6-12	0-2	5-10	+24	13	2
J. HardenG · #1	36	22	5-9	4-7	8-12	+3	9	8
S. MerrillG · #5	27	15	5-8	4-6	1-1	+20	1	2
J. TysonG · #20	28	9	3-7	3-6	—	+3	1	2
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	5	0	0-3	—	—	-4	1	0
T. BryantC · #3	10	4	1-3	0-2	2-2	-8	2	1
D. SchroderG · #8	25	12	4-7	1-1	3-4	-8	1	5
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	18	3	1-4	1-2	—	-10	1	2
K. EllisG · #14	31	4	2-5	0-1	—	-5	3	2
Team		106	34-70	13-27	25-37		38	25
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Enaruna, D. Brown, T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	30	26	10-17	5-8	1-2	-8	5	1
N. ClowneyF · #21	23	5	2-5	1-4	—	-13	1	1
D. SharpeC · #20	28	7	3-5	0-1	1-2	-7	8	3
T. MannG · #14	14	0	0-2	—	—	-21	1	4
N. TraoreG · #88	30	17	7-15	1-6	2-2	-2	1	2
Bench
Z. WilliamsF · #1	33	4	2-2	—	—	+17	0	5
J. MinottF · #00	17	5	2-3	1-2	—	+6	2	1
G. NelsonF · #16	20	11	4-7	—	3-4	+1	4	1
D. WolfF · #2	27	23	7-13	3-8	6-8	+7	9	5
B. SarafG · #77	18	4	1-6	0-3	2-2	0	1	4
Team		102	38-75	11-32	15-20		32	27
DNP: J. Wilson, O. Agbaji

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

34-70

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-75

FG %

13-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-32

25-37

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE wins series 3-0

Oct 24

CLE131@

BKN124

Feb 20

BKN84@

CLE112

Mar 1

CLE106@

BKN102today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-60086%

BKN+44019%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -12.5↗SpreadBet CLE -12.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat BKN 106-102. J. Harden led with 22 PTS, 9 REB, 8 AST. BKN outscored the other side 28-17 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 8 REB · 10 AST

GS 25

BKNstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST

GS 34

Bench(5)

47 PTS · 16 REB · 16 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN4th Quarter · 9.2 · 102-99

+16pp→ 33% WP

Evan Mobley · personal foul

CLE4th Quarter · 7.7 · 102-101

+16pp→ 91% WP

Grant Nelson · personal take foul

CLE4th Quarter · 5.9 · 104-102

+15pp→ 91% WP

Danny Wolf · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	29	17	28	32	106
BKN	24	28	23	27	102

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · BKN won 1

Allen 6

Wolf 8

Merrill 3

Traore 7

Harden 12

Clowney 5

Mobley 9

Wolf 12

CLE

BKN

Shooting comparison

CLE

BKN

49%

34-70

51%

38-75

48%

13-27

3PT

34%

11-32

68%

25-37

75%

15-20

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 106·BKN 102
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 106·BKN 102
Q4·0.1
Nets offensive team rebound
CLE 106·BKN 102
Q4·0.1
Michael Porter Jr. misses heave jump shot
CLE 106·BKN 102
−3pp
Q4·3.7
Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 106·BKN 102
+0.6pp
Q4·3.7
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 105·BKN 102
+1pp
Q4·3.7
Evan Mobley misses free throw 1 of 2
CLE 105·BKN 102
+0.7pp
Q4·3.7
Day'Ron Sharpe personal take foul
CLE 105·BKN 102
−2pp
Q4·3.7
Evan Mobley offensive rebound
CLE 105·BKN 102
−5pp
Q4·4.8
Dennis Schroder misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 105·BKN 102
+5pp
Q4·4.8
Day'Ron Sharpe enters the game for Grant Nelson
·
CLE 105·BKN 102
Q4·4.8
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 105·BKN 102
−0.6pp
Q4·4.8
Michael Porter Jr. personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 104·BKN 102
−6pp
Q4·5.9
Ziaire Williams enters the game for Day'Ron Sharpe
·
CLE 104·BKN 102
Q4·5.9
Nolan Traore enters the game for Danny Wolf
·
CLE 104·BKN 102
Q4·5.9
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 104·BKN 102
Q4·5.9
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 104·BKN 102
Q4·5.9
Cavaliers defensive team rebound
CLE 104·BKN 102
Q4·5.9
Danny Wolf misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 104·BKN 102
−15pp
Q4·5.9
Jarrett Allen enters the game for Dennis Schroder
·
CLE 104·BKN 102
Q4·5.9
Grant Nelson enters the game for Nolan Traore
·
CLE 104·BKN 102
Q4·5.9
Danny Wolf makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 104·BKN 102
+2pp
Q4·5.9
Dennis Schroder personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 104·BKN 101
+10pp
Q4·7.7
Nolan Traore enters the game for Grant Nelson
·
CLE 104·BKN 101
Q4·7.7
Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Ziaire Williams
·
CLE 104·BKN 101
Q4·7.7
Nets Full timeout
CLE 104·BKN 101
Q4·7.7
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 104·BKN 101
+5pp
Q4·7.7
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 103·BKN 101
−2pp
Q4·7.7
Grant Nelson personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 102·BKN 101
−16pp
Q4·9.2
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 102·BKN 101

Betting line

CLE -12.5·O/U 224.5·CLE -600/BKN +440

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Brooklyn Nets and beat them, 106–102. Decided by 4.

BKN +12.5 cashed (CLE won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Ziaire WilliamsBKN · F
DEFL3.295
James HardenCLE · G
DRIVES12.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BKN vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high

Assists

James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high
Evan MobleyCLE
3.9± 1.9high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high
Josh MinottBKN
1.3± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

BKN

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR