NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+28LAL

LAL

35-24

129101

31-29

NBASat, Feb 28FinalSeriesLAL lead series 2-1VegasLAL -3.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

24.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Al Horford

C · #20

10.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 10:26

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	28	22	7-13	4-6	4-5	+26	7	9
D. AytonC · #5	20	4	2-5	—	0-2	+14	10	0
M. SmartG · #36	29	8	3-6	2-4	—	+25	5	1
L. DoncicG · #77	29	26	9-17	4-9	4-4	+26	6	8
A. ReavesG · #15	28	18	7-11	2-4	2-2	+22	1	3
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	13	4	2-4	0-1	—	-4	2	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	12	2	1-4	0-1	—	-7	2	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	27	15	6-10	3-6	0-3	+14	5	3
D. KnechtF · #4	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	0
J. HayesC · #11	15	6	3-4	—	—	+18	5	0
L. KennardG · #10	27	16	6-10	4-7	—	+14	3	3
K. BufkinG · #44	6	8	2-5	0-2	4-4	-4	1	1
Team		129	48-90	19-41	14-20		47	29

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	24	7	3-8	1-5	—	-30	6	6
G. SantosF · #15	27	14	6-12	2-7	—	-22	4	2
D. MeltonG · #8	24	10	3-12	2-5	2-2	-25	1	4
M. MoodyG · #4	30	12	4-11	4-10	—	-25	3	3
B. PodziemskiG · #2	30	9	4-12	0-6	1-2	-20	7	6
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	8	6	3-4	0-1	—	+3	1	0
A. HorfordC · #20	22	8	2-3	2-3	2-2	-5	5	2
Q. PostC · #21	13	8	4-8	0-2	—	-2	7	0
G. Payton IIG · #0	16	12	6-10	0-3	—	-3	1	3
N. WilliamsG · #19	15	7	3-5	1-2	—	+1	1	2
P. SpencerG · #61	27	4	1-3	—	2-3	-3	3	4
W. RichardG · #3	5	4	2-3	—	—	-9	1	0
Team		101	41-91	12-44	7-9		40	32
DNP: K. Porzingis

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

Home

48-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-91

FG %

19-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-44

14-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-9

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 2-1

Oct 22

GS119@

LAL109

Feb 8

GS99@

LAL105

Mar 1

LAL129@

GS101today

Apr 10

LAL119@

GS103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-16662%

GS+14042%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -3.5↗SpreadBet LAL -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat GS 129-101. L. Doncic paced them with 26 PTS, 6 REB, 8 AST. LAL outscored the other side 33-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 29 REB · 21 AST

GS 72

Bench(7)

51 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST

GS 46

GSstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 21 REB · 21 AST

GS 38

Bench(7)

49 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 44

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	33	32	34	30	129
GS	20	27	25	29	101

Period scoring

LAL won 4 · GS won 0

Reaves 11

II 4

James 14

II 6

Doncic 16

Santos 10

LaRavia 8

Leons 6

LAL

Shooting comparison

LAL

53%

48-90

45%

41-91

46%

19-41

3PT

27%

12-44

70%

14-20

78%

7-9

Play-by-play · 436 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 129·GS 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 129·GS 101
Q4·15.2
Malevy Leons makes driving layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)
·
LAL 129·GS 101
Q4·25.3
Kobe Bufkin makes 8-foot two point shot
LAL 129·GS 99
Q4·39.2
Quinten Post makes two point shot
LAL 127·GS 99
Q4·40.2
Quinten Post offensive rebound
LAL 127·GS 97
Q4·40.2
Dalton Knecht blocks Quinten Post's layup
·
LAL 127·GS 97
Q4·51.6
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
LAL 127·GS 97
Q4·54.7
Jake LaRavia misses 24-foot three point jumper
LAL 127·GS 97
Q4·1:03
Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound
LAL 127·GS 97
Q4·1:06
Maxi Kleber blocks Quinten Post 's 4-foot two point shot
·
LAL 127·GS 97
Q4·1:20
Jake LaRavia personal foul
LAL 127·GS 97
Q4·1:29
Jake LaRavia makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 127·GS 97
Q4·1:41
Malevy Leons makes tip shot
LAL 124·GS 97
Q4·1:41
Malevy Leons offensive rebound
LAL 124·GS 95
Q4·1:43
Quinten Post misses 26-foot running jump shot
LAL 124·GS 95
Q4·1:46
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
LAL 124·GS 95
Q4·1:50
Kobe Bufkin misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAL 124·GS 95
Q4·2:09
Nate Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)
·
LAL 124·GS 95
Q4·2:19
Jarred Vanderbilt makes 1-foot driving dunk (Kobe Bufkin assists)
·
LAL 124·GS 92
Q4·2:37
Brandin Podziemski makes 1-foot driving dunk (Pat Spencer assists)
·
LAL 122·GS 92
Q4·2:52
Kobe Bufkin makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 122·GS 90
Q4·2:52
Kobe Bufkin makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 121·GS 90
Q4·2:52
Malevy Leons personal foul
LAL 120·GS 90
Q4·2:56
Nate Williams out of bounds lost ball turnover
LAL 120·GS 90
Q4·2:59
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
LAL 120·GS 90
Q4·3:02
Jarred Vanderbilt misses two point shot
LAL 120·GS 90
Q4·3:29
Quinten Post makes 3-foot two point shot
LAL 120·GS 90
Q4·3:44
Kobe Bufkin makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 120·GS 88
Q4·3:44
Kobe Bufkin makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 119·GS 88

Betting line

LAL -3.5·O/U 225.5·LAL -166/GS +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 129–101. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAL -3.5 cashed (won by 28). Total cleared the 225.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

114.8

PPG

114.9

114.5

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

14.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR