NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10MIA

HOU

37-22

105115

MIA

32-29

NBASat, Feb 28FinalSeriesMIA leads series 1-0VegasHOU -2.5

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

29.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 18pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:03

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	37	32	12-20	2-8	6-6	+5	5	8
T. EasonF · #17	36	10	4-12	2-7	—	-15	11	5
A. SengunC · #28	35	13	6-14	0-1	1-2	-18	6	3
A. ThompsonG · #1	39	20	7-16	0-1	6-12	-18	11	4
R. SheppardG · #15	36	14	5-14	4-11	—	-3	4	5
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	12	4	2-5	0-2	—	+12	4	0
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	16	0	0-2	0-2	—	-11	2	0
I. CrawfordF · #27	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
C. CapelaC · #30	13	7	3-7	—	1-1	0	3	1
A. HolidayG · #0	9	5	2-4	1-3	—	-5	1	0
J. OkogieG · #20	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	0	0
Team		105	41-95	9-36	14-21		47	26
DNP: J. Smith Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	31	12	4-10	1-4	3-3	-5	6	4
B. AdebayoC · #13	35	24	9-17	3-5	3-6	+16	11	1
D. MitchellG · #45	25	10	4-10	2-4	—	-3	3	5
T. HerroG · #14	33	18	8-12	2-4	—	0	2	3
P. LarssonG · #9	35	20	6-12	1-5	7-8	+4	4	4
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	9	0	0-5	0-3	—	+9	0	1
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	25	14	7-12	0-1	0-1	+6	3	3
K. WareC · #7	29	13	6-10	1-3	—	+15	15	1
D. SmithG · #12	7	4	1-1	1-1	1-2	+1	1	0
K. JakucionisG · #25	12	0	0-1	0-1	—	+7	2	0
Team		115	45-90	11-31	14-20		47	22
DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson, N. Jovic, V. Goldin, J. Young

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

41-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-90

FG %

9-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-31

14-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 1-0

Feb 28

HOU105@

MIA115today

Mar 22

MIA122@

HOU123

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-14259%

MIA+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -2.5↗SpreadBet HOU -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat HOU 115-105. B. Adebayo led with 24 PTS, 11 REB, 1 AST. MIA outscored the other side 30-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 37 REB · 25 AST

GS 72

Bench(6)

16 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST

GS 9

MIAstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 26 REB · 17 AST

GS 64

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 21 REB · 5 AST

GS 24

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA4th Quarter · 7:09 · 92-93

+11pp→ 65% WP

Aaron Holiday · shooting foul

HOU2nd Quarter · 5:03 · 37-43

+18pp→ 37% WP

Bam Adebayo · enters the game for Kel'el Ware

MIA4th Quarter · 4:12 · 98-104

+11pp→ 84% WP

Davion Mitchell · makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	28	24	31	22	105
MIA	32	19	34	30	115

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · MIA won 3

Thompson 11

Jr. 6

Sengun 6

Adebayo 7

Durant 12

Adebayo 10

Eason 5

Durant 57

HOU

MIA

Shooting comparison

HOU

MIA

43%

41-95

50%

45-90

25%

9-36

3PT

35%

11-31

67%

14-21

70%

14-20

Play-by-play · 487 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 105·MIA 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 105·MIA 115
Q4·1.6
shot clock turnover
HOU 105·MIA 115
Q4·25.7
Aaron Holiday makes 8-foot floating jump shot
HOU 105·MIA 115
Q4·37.0
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 103·MIA 115
Q4·37.0
Isaiah Crawford enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
HOU 103·MIA 114
Q4·37.0
Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Tari Eason
· ·
HOU 103·MIA 114
Q4·37.0
Aaron Holiday enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
HOU 103·MIA 114
Q4·37.0
Josh Okogie enters the game for Kevin Durant
·
HOU 103·MIA 114
Q4·37.0
Clint Capela enters the game for Amen Thompson
·
HOU 103·MIA 114
Q4·37.0
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 103·MIA 114
Q4·37.0
Reed Sheppard personal foul
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·48.1
Kevin Durant out of bounds bad pass turnover
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·51.3
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·51.3
Amen Thompson vs. Bam Adebayo (Alperen Sengun gains possession)
· ·
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·53.8
Tari Eason misses 25-foot three point jumper
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·54.0
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·57.2
Reed Sheppard misses 26-foot three point jumper
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·1:00
Tari Eason offensive rebound
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·1:03
Amen Thompson misses running layup
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·1:05
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·1:07
Pelle Larsson misses tip shot
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·1:07
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·1:12
Bam Adebayo misses 7-foot turnaround jump shot
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·1:29
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·1:33
Alperen Sengun misses 5-foot hook shot
HOU 103·MIA 113
+0.5pp
Q4·1:35
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
HOU 103·MIA 113
Q4·1:37
Reed Sheppard misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
HOU 103·MIA 113
+0.7pp
Q4·1:52
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 103·MIA 113
−0.6pp
Q4·1:52
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 103·MIA 112

Betting line

HOU -2.5·O/U 226.5·HOU -142/MIA +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat held off Houston Rockets, 115–105.

MIA +2.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high

Assists

Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

MIA

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.2%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.8%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR