NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6OKC

DEN

37-23

121127

OKC

46-15

NBAFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesOKC leads series 2-0VegasOKC -6.5

DEN · top performer

Jamal Murray

G · #27

30.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

29.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 35pp · 4th Quarter · 2:12

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. JohnsonF · #23	40	7	2-7	1-4	2-2	-25	8	1
N. JokicC · #15	45	23	9-25	2-10	3-5	+15	17	14
J. MurrayG · #27	47	39	12-26	7-13	8-10	+5	8	6
C. BraunG · #0	45	23	8-18	3-10	4-5	+12	8	2
J. StrawtherG · #3	15	0	0-3	0-2	—	+4	3	2
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
S. JonesF · #21	2	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
J. ValanciunasC · #17	8	6	3-5	—	—	-21	2	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	33	16	6-12	4-7	—	-13	2	1
B. BrownG · #11	29	7	3-7	1-2	—	-1	3	1
Team		121	43-103	18-48	17-22		51	27
DNP: D. Holmes II, J. Pickett, K. Simpson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	25	9	4-6	—	1-2	-3	8	5
C. HolmgrenC · #7	38	15	5-8	1-2	4-6	+6	21	3
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	34	36	12-29	0-3	12-13	+16	3	9
L. DortG · #5	28	8	3-7	2-6	—	+7	6	1
C. WallaceG · #22	36	10	3-10	0-3	4-4	-10	4	3
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	26	12	4-7	2-4	2-2	+17	5	3
A. CarusoG · #9	28	12	5-11	2-6	—	-9	1	1
I. JoeG · #11	23	9	3-6	3-5	—	+14	4	3
A. WigginsG · #21	8	2	1-7	0-3	—	-17	2	0
J. McCainG · #3	19	14	6-8	2-3	—	+9	2	1
Team		127	46-99	12-35	23-27		56	29
DNP: B. Boeheim, K. Williams, N. Topic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

43-103

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-99

FG %

18-48

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-35

17-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC leads series 2-0

Feb 2

OKC121@

DEN111

Feb 28

DEN121@

OKC127today

Mar 9

DEN126@

OKC129

Apr 11

OKC107@

DEN127

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN+20533%

OKC-25071%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -6.5↗SpreadBet OKC -6.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat DEN 127-121. S. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 36 points and 9 assists. DEN outscored the other side 33-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 44 REB · 25 AST

GS 72

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

GS 20

OKCstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 42 REB · 21 AST

GS 77

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 40

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC4th Quarter · 3:05 · 105-99

+16pp→ 29% WP

Christian Braun · shooting foul

OKC4th Quarter · 1:23 · 105-107

+17pp→ 64% WP

Alex Caruso · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)

DEN4th Quarter · 2:12 · 105-101

+35pp→ 82% WP

(02:12) [Nuggets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
DEN	33	26	24	24	14	121
OKC	19	31	27	30	20	127

Period scoring

DEN won 1 · OKC won 4

Braun 10

Gilgeous-Alexander 8

Brown 7

Gilgeous-Alexander 10

Murray 14

Gilgeous-Alexander 14

Murray 7

McCain 8

Murray 7

Wallace 6

DEN

OKC

Shooting comparison

DEN

OKC

42%

43-103

46%

46-99

38%

18-48

3PT

34%

12-35

77%

17-22

85%

23-27

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
DEN 121·OKC 127
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
DEN 121·OKC 127
OT·2.0
Christian Braun bad pass turnover (Chet Holmgren steals)
·
DEN 121·OKC 127
+0.5pp
OT·3.6
Jaylin Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
·
DEN 121·OKC 127
OT·3.6
Jaylin Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
DEN 121·OKC 126
OT·3.6
Jamal Murray personal foul
DEN 121·OKC 125
+2pp
OT·4.9
Thunder Full timeout
DEN 121·OKC 125
OT·5.5
Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointer
DEN 121·OKC 125
−1pp
OT·14.2
Cason Wallace makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 118·OKC 125
−0.6pp
OT·14.2
Cason Wallace makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 118·OKC 124
OT·14.2
Christian Braun personal foul
DEN 118·OKC 123
+2pp
OT·16.3
Jamal Murray makes 23-foot three pointer
DEN 118·OKC 123
−2pp
OT·25.3
Cason Wallace makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 115·OKC 123
−0.7pp
OT·25.3
Cason Wallace makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 115·OKC 122
OT·25.3
Jamal Murray personal foul
DEN 115·OKC 121
+2pp
OT·27.3
Jamal Murray makes 30-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)
·
DEN 115·OKC 121
+2pp
OT·28.6
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 112·OKC 121
OT·28.6
Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 112·OKC 121
OT·28.6
Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 112·OKC 120
OT·28.6
Cameron Johnson personal foul
DEN 112·OKC 119
+0.5pp
OT·28.6
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
DEN 112·OKC 119
OT·28.6
Christian Braun misses tip in dunk
DEN 112·OKC 119
+1pp
OT·28.6
Christian Braun offensive rebound
DEN 112·OKC 119
−0.9pp
OT·31.6
Jamal Murray misses 24-foot three point jumper
DEN 112·OKC 119
+2pp
OT·38.1
Cason Wallace bad pass turnover (Tim Hardaway Jr. steals)
·
DEN 112·OKC 119
−2pp
OT·43.9
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
·
DEN 112·OKC 119
+0.5pp
OT·46.6
Cameron Johnson misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DEN 112·OKC 119
+10pp
OT·49.3
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 112·OKC 119
−2pp
OT·49.3
Chet Holmgren blocks Christian Braun 's 1-foot alley oop layup
·
DEN 112·OKC 119
−2pp
OT·49.3
(00:49.3) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Thunder] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
DEN 112·OKC 119
+7pp

Betting line

OKC -6.5·O/U 234.5·DEN +205/OKC -250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Denver Nuggets, 127–121 in overtime.

DEN +6.5 cashed (OKC won by 6). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Branden CarlsonOKC
0.9± 1.6high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

OKC

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.9%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

48.2%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

118.5

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

12.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR