NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+37BOS

BKN

15-44

111148

BOS

39-20

NBAFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasBOS -16.5

BKN · top performer

Michael Porter Jr.

F · #17

13.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

29.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 1:30

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	26	18	6-12	2-4	4-5	-23	2	2
N. ClowneyF · #21	22	10	4-9	2-4	—	-17	3	2
N. ClaxtonC · #33	23	12	5-9	—	2-4	-20	4	2
E. DeminG · #8	22	5	2-4	1-3	—	-9	0	2
N. TraoreG · #88	24	8	4-9	0-2	—	-19	2	7
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	8	0	0-2	0-1	—	-1	1	1
Z. WilliamsF · #1	17	5	2-5	1-3	—	-21	0	0
J. MinottF · #00	16	9	4-7	1-3	0-1	-16	2	0
G. NelsonF · #16	10	3	1-1	—	1-2	-3	2	4
D. WolfF · #2	23	16	5-12	2-6	4-4	-15	2	1
D. SharpeC · #20	15	2	1-7	0-1	—	-14	5	3
T. MannG · #14	18	8	3-5	2-4	—	-23	1	3
O. AgbajiG · #30	8	8	3-3	2-2	—	-1	1	1
B. SarafG · #77	10	7	3-3	1-1	—	-3	0	1
Team		111	43-88	14-34	11-16		25	29

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	27	13	5-9	2-6	1-1	+27	3	2
N. QuetaC · #88	15	8	4-4	—	—	+1	2	1
D. WhiteG · #9	32	12	4-9	4-8	—	+31	3	7
J. BrownG · #7	30	28	9-12	4-4	6-10	+25	7	9
B. ScheiermanG · #55	22	10	3-3	2-2	2-2	+18	3	6
Bench
D. BantonF · #45	6	4	1-4	—	2-2	-4	0	1
N. VucevicC · #4	25	28	9-13	3-3	7-7	+35	11	4
L. GarzaC · #52	8	4	1-2	—	2-3	+1	3	1
P. PritchardG · #11	28	22	9-12	4-5	—	+40	0	5
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	6	3	1-1	1-1	—	-4	0	0
J. TonjeG · #8	5	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	+1	2	1
J. WalshG · #27	15	6	2-2	2-2	—	-2	3	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	21	8	4-6	0-2	—	+16	2	1
Team		148	52-78	22-34	22-27		39	38

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

43-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

52-78

FG %

14-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

22-34

11-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 3-1

Nov 19

BOS113@

BKN99

Nov 22

BKN113@

BOS105

Jan 24

BOS130@

BKN126

Feb 28

BKN111@

BOS148today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

208.5

Defensive · -17.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+80011%

BOS-135093%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -16.5↗SpreadBet BOS -16.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

208.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat BKN 148-111. J. Brown paced them with 28 PTS, 7 REB, 9 AST. BOS outscored the other side 43-26 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 11 REB · 15 AST

GS 41

Bench(9)

58 PTS · 14 REB · 14 AST

GS 42

BOSstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 18 REB · 25 AST

GS 77

Bench(8)

77 PTS · 21 REB · 13 AST

GS 72

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	32	25	26	28	111
BOS	35	31	43	39	148

Period scoring

BKN won 0 · BOS won 4

Claxton 6

Vucevic 10

Jr. 9

Brown 12

Jr. 5

Brown 14

Agbaji 8

Pritchard 9

BKN

BOS

Shooting comparison

BKN

BOS

49%

43-88

67%

52-78

41%

14-34

3PT

65%

22-34

69%

11-16

81%

22-27

Play-by-play · 417 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 111·BOS 148
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 111·BOS 148
Q4·8.3
shot clock turnover
BKN 111·BOS 148
Q4·32.9
Ochai Agbaji makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Grant Nelson assists)
·
BKN 111·BOS 148
Q4·43.2
Luka Garza makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 109·BOS 148
Q4·43.2
Celtics offensive team rebound
BKN 109·BOS 147
Q4·43.2
Luka Garza misses free throw 1 of 2
BKN 109·BOS 147
Q4·43.2
Jalen Wilson shooting foul
BKN 109·BOS 147
Q4·44.9
Grant Nelson bad pass turnover (Luka Garza steals)
·
BKN 109·BOS 147
Q4·46.3
Grant Nelson defensive rebound
BKN 109·BOS 147
Q4·46.6
Grant Nelson blocks Dalano Banton 's 8-foot driving layup
·
BKN 109·BOS 147
Q4·1:06
Ochai Agbaji makes 24-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)
·
BKN 109·BOS 147
Q4·1:08
Ochai Agbaji offensive rebound
BKN 106·BOS 147
Q4·1:12
Jalen Wilson misses 28-foot three point jumper
BKN 106·BOS 147
Q4·1:27
Dalano Banton makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 106·BOS 147
Q4·1:27
Dalano Banton makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 106·BOS 146
Q4·1:27
Danny Wolf shooting foul
BKN 106·BOS 145
Q4·1:32
John Tonje defensive rebound
BKN 106·BOS 145
Q4·1:36
Danny Wolf misses 23-foot three point jumper
BKN 106·BOS 145
Q4·1:48
Ron Harper Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Garza assists)
·
BKN 106·BOS 145
Q4·1:50
Luka Garza offensive rebound
BKN 106·BOS 142
Q4·1:52
John Tonje misses 25-foot three point jumper
BKN 106·BOS 142
Q4·2:06
Celtics Full timeout
BKN 106·BOS 142
Q4·2:06
Celtics defensive team rebound
BKN 106·BOS 142
Q4·2:08
Danny Wolf misses 25-foot three point jumper
BKN 106·BOS 142
Q4·2:31
Jordan Walsh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)
·
BKN 106·BOS 142
Q4·2:52
Ochai Agbaji makes 27-foot running jump shot (Jalen Wilson assists)
·
BKN 106·BOS 139
Q4·2:56
Jalen Wilson defensive rebound
BKN 103·BOS 139
Q4·2:59
Dalano Banton misses driving layup
BKN 103·BOS 139
Q4·3:12
John Tonje defensive rebound
BKN 103·BOS 139

Betting line

BOS -16.5·O/U 208.5·BKN +800/BOS -1350

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Brooklyn Nets, 148–111. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -16.5 cashed (won by 37). Total cleared the 208.5 OVER by 50.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Ziaire WilliamsBKN · F
DEFL3.295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

BOS

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.5%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

25.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR