MIN
37-23
LAC
27-31
MIN · top performer
Anthony Edwards
G · #5
31
Pts
3
Reb
5
Ast
LAC · top performer
Derrick Jones Jr.
F · #5
18
Pts
1
Reb
1
Ast
Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 42.9
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Clippers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 4 | 1-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | +5 | 3 | 6 | |
| 32 | 12 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -1 | 7 | 2 | |
| 35 | 3 | 1-1 | — | 1-4 | -2 | 13 | 1 | |
| 31 | 18 | 6-13 | 4-9 | 2-2 | +8 | 3 | 4 | |
| 36 | 31 | 12-24 | 2-6 | 5-6 | -2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 29 | 11 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 1-2 | +7 | 7 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 12 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | +9 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-3 | — | +10 | 2 | 4 | |
| Team | 94 | 36-83 | 8-26 | 14-19 | 41 | 23 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +7 | 6 | 3 | |
| 32 | 18 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 3-5 | +2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 32 | 8 | 2-12 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | |
| 32 | 11 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 3-4 | -1 | 6 | 7 | |
| 34 | 14 | 4-14 | 0-4 | 6-8 | +1 | 6 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 16 | 10 | 2-5 | — | 6-6 | -6 | 4 | 0 | |
| 17 | 8 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 3-4 | -5 | 6 | 4 | |
| 24 | 10 | 5-7 | — | — | -13 | 3 | 1 | |
| 19 | 9 | 4-7 | 1-2 | — | -11 | 1 | 1 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 88 | 30-74 | 5-22 | 23-29 | 40 | 21 | ||
| DNP: I. Jackson, T. Washington Jr. | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
41
23
Ast
21
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
LAC
Home
36-83
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-74
43
FG %
41
8-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-22
14-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-29
23
Assists
21
12
Turnovers
18
Season series
MIN leads series 2-1
LAC106@MIN109LAC115@MIN96MIN94@LAC88todayMIN128@LAC153Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
220.5
Standard · -5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-34578%LAC+27527%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
220.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat LAC 94-88. A. Edwards paced them with 31 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. LAC outscored the other side 30-19 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LAC vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST
GS 53
Bench(5)
26 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 18
LACstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST
GS 33
Bench(5)
37 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST
GS 27
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBrook Lopez · steps out of bounds turnover
Brook Lopez · shooting foul
Anthony Edwards · makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 29 | 15 | 19 | 31 | 94 |
| LAC | 27 | 11 | 30 | 20 | 88 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · LAC won 1
Q1
Edwards 9
Mathurin 8
Q2
DiVincenzo 6
Miller 4
Q3
Edwards 9
Jr. 9
Q4
Edwards 11
Sanders 5
Shooting comparison
43%
36-83
FG
41%
30-74
31%
8-26
3PT
23%
5-22
74%
14-19
FT
79%
23-29
Play-by-play · 454 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 94·LAC 88
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 94·LAC 88
- Q4·10.1
Derrick Jones Jr. bad pass turnover (Ayo Dosunmu steals)
·
MIN 94·LAC 88
−1pp
- Q4·12.1
Clippers Full timeout
MIN 94·LAC 88
- Q4·12.1
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 94·LAC 88
+0.9pp
- Q4·12.1
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 93·LAC 88
- Q4·12.1
Derrick Jones Jr. personal take foul
MIN 92·LAC 88
- Q4·15.1
Julius Randle enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 92·LAC 88
- Q4·15.1
Bennedict Mathurin personal take foul
MIN 92·LAC 88
−5pp
- Q4·16.7
Jaden McDaniels offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 92·LAC 88
−5pp
- Q4·19.2
Jaden McDaniels misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 92·LAC 88
+2pp
- Q4·31.4
Timberwolves offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 92·LAC 88
−5pp
- Q4·31.4
Anthony Edwards misses driving layup
MIN 92·LAC 88
+4pp
- Q4·42.9
Nicolas Batum out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 92·LAC 88
−3pp
- Q4·42.9
Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Julius Randle
·
MIN 92·LAC 88
- Q4·42.9
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Jordan Miller
·
MIN 92·LAC 88
- Q4·42.9
(00:42.9) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MIN 92·LAC 88
−3pp
- Q4·42.9
Clippers Full timeout
MIN 92·LAC 88
- Q4·42.9
Anthony Edwards makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIN 92·LAC 88
−18pp
- Q4·1:05
Derrick Jones Jr. makes 4-foot two point shot (Kris Dunn assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 89·LAC 88
+8pp
- Q4·1:18
Anthony Edwards makes 11-foot jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 89·LAC 86
−9pp
- Q4·1:21
Jordan Miller enters the game for Nicolas Batum
·
MIN 87·LAC 86
- Q4·1:21
Timberwolves offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 87·LAC 86
−8pp
- Q4·1:21
Derrick Jones Jr. blocks Julius Randle 's 3-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 87·LAC 86
+8pp
- Q4·1:36
Bennedict Mathurin makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 87·LAC 86
+8pp
- Q4·1:45
Brook Lopez defensive rebound
MIN 87·LAC 84
+2pp
- Q4·1:50
Anthony Edwards misses 11-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIN 87·LAC 84
+6pp
- Q4·2:02
Anthony Edwards defensive rebound
MIN 87·LAC 84
−2pp
- Q4·2:05
Brook Lopez misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 87·LAC 84
−6pp
- Q4·2:12
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 87·LAC 84
+6pp
Betting line
MIN -8.5·O/U 220.5·MIN -345/LAC +275
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves went into LA Clippers and beat them, 94–88.
LAC +8.5 cashed (MIN won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 38.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · CTS%69.198- Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Kris DunnLAC · GDEFL3.697
Brook LopezLAC · CCONT8.396
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAC vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Kawhi LeonardLAC25.5± 4.3high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Kawhi LeonardLAC6.5± 1.4high
- John CollinsLAC5.8± 2.5high
Assists
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
- Ayo DosunmuMIN3.9± 3.1high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC1.3± 1.5high
Steals
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- Kawhi LeonardLAC1.3± 0.9high
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN1.2± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
LAC
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
▶48.5%
116.8
PPG
114.9
113.9
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
23.8
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.6