NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PHX

LAL

34-24

110113

PHX

34-26

NBAThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesPHX leads series 3-1VegasLAL -5.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

37.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Grayson Allen

G · #8

18.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 46pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:49

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	35	15	7-16	0-3	1-2	+5	6	5
D. AytonC · #5	23	2	1-3	—	—	-24	4	0
M. SmartG · #36	31	13	4-8	2-5	3-4	-3	1	3
L. DoncicG · #77	39	41	12-21	6-11	11-12	+9	8	8
A. ReavesG · #15	36	14	5-12	2-5	2-2	+9	3	2
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	6	0	—	—	—	-15	1	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	28	11	3-6	1-4	4-4	-3	5	1
J. HayesC · #11	21	6	2-3	—	2-2	+16	8	1
L. KennardG · #10	21	8	4-6	0-1	—	-9	3	0
Team		110	38-75	11-29	23-26		39	20
DNP: D. Knecht, K. Bufkin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	28	13	4-7	3-6	2-2	-4	6	3
R. DunnF · #0	26	10	4-7	2-3	—	-20	4	1
M. WilliamsC · #15	13	4	2-6	—	—	0	10	0
C. GillespieG · #12	31	21	7-13	6-11	1-1	0	3	3
J. GreenG · #4	24	9	4-15	1-7	—	-2	3	1
Bench
O. IghodaroF · #11	34	8	4-5	—	—	0	4	3
R. FlemingF · #20	21	8	3-5	2-3	—	+19	6	0
G. AllenG · #8	31	28	9-24	6-16	4-4	-14	1	6
A. CoffeyG · #2	17	6	2-2	2-2	—	+20	2	2
J. BouyeaG · #17	14	6	1-3	0-2	4-7	+16	2	3
Team		113	40-87	22-50	11-14		41	22
DNP: I. Livers, K. Maluach

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

38-75

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-87

FG %

11-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

22-50

23-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX leads series 3-1

Dec 2

PHX125@

LAL108

Dec 15

LAL116@

PHX114

Dec 24

LAL108@

PHX132

Feb 27

LAL110@

PHX113today

Apr 11

PHX73@

LAL101

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-21869%

PHX+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -5.5↗SpreadBet LAL -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat LAL 113-110. G. Allen paced them with 28 PTS, 1 REB, 6 AST. Luka Doncic's play in the 2nd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (46pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 22 REB · 18 AST

GS 67

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 17 REB · 2 AST

GS 26

PHXstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 26 REB · 8 AST

GS 35

Bench(5)

56 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST

GS 57

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX2nd Quarter · 5:49 · 33-43

+46pp→ 76% WP

Luka Doncic · misses driving layup

LAL4th Quarter · 1:00 · 108-108

+19pp→ 47% WP

Austin Reaves · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 1.7 · 110-113

+43pp→ 97% WP

Royce O'Neale · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	27	22	31	30	110
PHX	22	27	31	33	113

Period scoring

LAL won 1 · PHX won 2

Doncic 12

Dunn 5

Reaves 7

Doncic 21

Doncic 14

Allen 16

Doncic 9

Gillespie 13

LAL

PHX

Shooting comparison

LAL

PHX

51%

38-75

46%

40-87

38%

11-29

3PT

44%

22-50

88%

23-26

79%

11-14

Play-by-play · 451 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 110·PHX 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 110·PHX 113
Q4·0.0
Lakers offensive team rebound
LAL 110·PHX 113
Q4·0.0
Austin Reaves misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAL 110·PHX 113
+2pp
Q4·0.9
Suns Full timeout
LAL 110·PHX 113
Q4·0.9
Maxi Kleber enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
LAL 110·PHX 113
Q4·0.9
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jalen Green
·
LAL 110·PHX 113
Q4·0.9
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Amir Coffey
·
LAL 110·PHX 113
Q4·0.9
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 110·PHX 113
+1pp
Q4·1.7
Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAL 110·PHX 113
+43pp
Q4·22.7
Jalen Green enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
LAL 110·PHX 110
Q4·22.7
Amir Coffey enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
LAL 110·PHX 110
Q4·22.7
Suns Full timeout
LAL 110·PHX 110
Q4·22.7
LeBron James makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
LAL 110·PHX 110
−13pp
Q4·22.7
LeBron James offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAL 108·PHX 110
−10pp
Q4·23.1
Marcus Smart misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
LAL 108·PHX 110
+12pp
Q4·35.4
Royce O'Neale makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
LAL 108·PHX 110
+11pp
Q4·35.4
Royce O'Neale offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAL 108·PHX 108
+7pp
Q4·37.7
Grayson Allen misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAL 108·PHX 108
−6pp
Q4·1:00
Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAL 108·PHX 108
−19pp
Q4·1:12
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
LAL 105·PHX 108
−2pp
Q4·1:14
Grayson Allen misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LAL 105·PHX 108
−6pp
Q4·1:29
Jake LaRavia makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAL 105·PHX 108
+7pp
Q4·1:29
Jake LaRavia makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 104·PHX 108
−2pp
Q4·1:29
Grayson Allen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 103·PHX 108
−10pp
Q4·1:49
Royce O'Neale makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 103·PHX 108
−4pp
Q4·1:49
Royce O'Neale makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 103·PHX 107
+1pp
Q4·1:49
Austin Reaves personal foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 103·PHX 106
+10pp
Q4·2:03
Jake LaRavia makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
LAL 103·PHX 106
−6pp
Q4·2:03
Jake LaRavia offensive rebound
LAL 101·PHX 106
−4pp

Betting line

LAL -5.5·O/U 223.5·LAL -218/PHX +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Los Angeles Lakers, 113–110. Decided by 3.

PHX +5.5 cashed (LAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

PHX

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

114.8

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR