NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9SAC

SAC

14-47

130121

DAL

21-37

NBAThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesSAC wins series 2-1VegasDAL -7.5

SAC · top performer

Precious Achiuwa

PF · #9

32.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Naji Marshall

F · #13

27.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 39pp · 4th Quarter · 1:31

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	33	29	13-19	3-3	—	+14	12	4
M. RaynaudC · #42	32	22	8-13	0-1	6-6	-5	6	0
D. DeRozanG · #10	25	7	1-3	—	5-6	+20	2	5
D. CarterG · #22	32	15	6-13	0-3	3-6	+10	7	5
N. CliffordG · #5	39	13	6-19	1-6	—	+9	8	7
Bench
D. EubanksF · #19	10	11	5-6	—	1-1	0	2	0
M. MonkG · #0	19	8	3-12	0-5	2-2	-7	0	2
D. PlowdenG · #29	26	19	7-7	3-3	2-2	-5	4	0
P. Baldwin Jr.G · #23	6	1	0-1	—	1-2	+6	1	0
K. HayesG · #3	18	5	2-8	1-5	—	+3	4	6
Team		130	51-101	8-26	20-25		46	29
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Cardwell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	33	17	5-9	2-4	5-5	+3	5	4
C. MartinF · #16	20	10	4-7	1-2	1-2	-25	0	2
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	29	10	5-6	—	—	-2	9	0
N. MarshallF · #13	42	36	14-23	1-4	7-11	+3	10	6
M. ChristieG · #00	27	8	3-9	2-5	—	-18	2	0
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	13	2	1-1	—	0-1	0	2	0
M. CisseC · #30	7	2	0-3	—	2-4	-7	5	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	16	8	3-7	2-3	—	-4	2	2
T. JonesG · #1	12	1	0-2	0-2	1-2	-1	2	4
B. WilliamsG · #10	27	16	6-10	1-2	3-7	+1	3	4
A. JohnsonG · #8	15	11	4-4	1-1	2-2	+5	2	1
Team		121	45-81	10-23	21-34		42	23
DNP: M. Kelly

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

51-101

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-81

FG %

8-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-23

20-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-34

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SAC wins series 2-1

Dec 27

DAL107@

SAC113

Jan 7

DAL100@

SAC98

Feb 27

SAC130@

DAL121today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+25029%

DAL-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -7.5↗SpreadBet DAL -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat DAL 130-121. P. Achiuwa paced them with 29 PTS, 12 REB, 4 AST. SAC outscored the other side 42-28 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 35 REB · 21 AST

GS 86

Bench(5)

44 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST

GS 34

DALstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

40 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC2nd Quarter · 10:24 · 47-32

+31pp→ 71% WP

Marvin Bagley III · makes driving layup (Klay Thompson assists)

DAL4th Quarter · 1:56 · 123-120

+16pp→ 41% WP

Nique Clifford · shooting foul

DAL4th Quarter · 1:31 · 123-121

+39pp→ 39% WP

Devin Carter · misses 4-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	42	26	32	30	130
DAL	28	28	32	33	121

Period scoring

SAC won 1 · DAL won 2

Achiuwa 14

Marshall 13

Eubanks 9

III 10

Carter 6

Martin 7

Plowden 11

Williams 12

SAC

DAL

Shooting comparison

SAC

DAL

50%

51-101

56%

45-81

31%

8-26

3PT

43%

10-23

80%

20-25

62%

21-34

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 130·DAL 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 130·DAL 121
Q4·17.4
Marvin Bagley III bad pass turnover (Devin Carter steals)
·
SAC 130·DAL 121
Q4·22.7
Nique Clifford makes 6-foot two point shot
SAC 130·DAL 121
−1pp
Q4·43.9
Nique Clifford defensive rebound
SAC 128·DAL 121
−0.7pp
Q4·46.8
Precious Achiuwa blocks Naji Marshall 's 5-foot driving floating jump shot
·
SAC 128·DAL 121
−2pp
Q4·51.9
Mavericks Full timeout
SAC 128·DAL 121
Q4·52.2
Daeqwon Plowden makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 128·DAL 121
−10pp
Q4·1:14
Khris Middleton bad pass turnover (Precious Achiuwa steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 125·DAL 121
−9pp
Q4·1:29
Precious Achiuwa makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 125·DAL 121
−8pp
Q4·1:30
Precious Achiuwa offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SAC 123·DAL 121
−9pp
Q4·1:31
Devin Carter misses 4-foot tip shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 123·DAL 121
+39pp
Q4·1:32
Devin Carter offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SAC 123·DAL 121
−8pp
Q4·1:33
Precious Achiuwa misses driving layup
SAC 123·DAL 121
−3pp
Q4·1:49
Brandon Williams kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
SAC 123·DAL 121
+10pp
Q4·1:56
Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
SAC 123·DAL 121
−8pp
Q4·1:56
Nique Clifford shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 123·DAL 120
+16pp
Q4·1:56
Brandon Williams makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
SAC 123·DAL 120
+6pp
Q4·2:05
Devin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 123·DAL 118
Q4·2:05
Kings offensive team rebound
SAC 122·DAL 118
+5pp
Q4·2:05
Devin Carter misses free throw 1 of 2
SAC 122·DAL 118
+3pp
Q4·2:05
Brandon Williams shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 122·DAL 118
−9pp
Q4·2:18
Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
SAC 122·DAL 118
−6pp
Q4·2:18
Precious Achiuwa shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 122·DAL 117
+12pp
Q4·2:18
Naji Marshall makes driving layup
SAC 122·DAL 117
+3pp
Q4·2:28
Daeqwon Plowden makes 2-foot running dunk (Devin Carter assists)
·
SAC 122·DAL 115
−4pp
Q4·2:34
Naji Marshall bad pass turnover (Devin Carter steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 120·DAL 115
−7pp
Q4·2:46
Devin Carter makes 1-foot layup (Precious Achiuwa assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 120·DAL 115
−8pp
Q4·3:02
DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
SAC 118·DAL 115
Q4·3:05
Naji Marshall misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 118·DAL 115
−14pp

Betting line

DAL -7.5·O/U 236.5·SAC +250/DAL -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 130–121.

SAC +7.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Marvin Bagley IIIDAL · F
TS%66.193
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
DeMar DeRozanSAC · G
DRIVES8.785
Naji MarshallDAL · F
DRIVES8.383

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

DAL

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.7%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

114.1

25.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR