NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5HOU

HOU

37-21

113108

ORL

31-27

NBAThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesHOU wins series 2-0VegasHOU -2.5

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

30.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

26.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 5:36

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	40	40	14-28	2-10	10-10	+10	8	3
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	29	13	6-7	1-1	—	-3	1	1
T. EasonF · #17	33	2	1-5	0-3	—	+15	8	3
A. SengunC · #28	31	16	8-15	0-1	0-2	+6	6	5
A. ThompsonG · #1	28	9	3-5	—	3-4	-15	5	3
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	12	3	1-3	1-3	—	-13	1	1
C. CapelaC · #30	17	4	1-1	—	2-2	0	6	3
J. OkogieG · #20	21	6	2-7	2-4	—	+15	3	1
R. SheppardG · #15	31	20	7-11	5-7	1-2	+10	3	4
Team		113	43-82	11-29	16-20		41	24
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford, A. Holiday

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	37	19	6-16	0-2	7-10	-7	8	9
T. da SilvaF · #23	35	8	2-8	2-5	2-2	+4	5	3
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	27	16	6-8	1-1	3-6	-4	6	1
D. BaneG · #3	38	30	12-19	6-10	—	+9	6	4
A. BlackG · #0	23	8	3-12	2-6	0-1	-7	1	2
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	15	6	3-4	0-1	—	+4	3	2
J. IsaacF · #1	16	0	0-2	0-1	—	-7	2	0
J. CarterG · #2	22	14	5-10	4-9	—	+3	2	3
J. SuggsG · #4	13	3	1-6	0-1	1-2	-11	1	0
J. HowardG · #13	14	4	2-3	0-1	—	-9	6	1
Team		108	40-88	15-37	13-21		40	25
DNP: J. Cain, N. Penda, G. Bitadze, J. Richardson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

43-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-88

FG %

11-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-37

16-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU wins series 2-0

Nov 17

ORL113@

HOU117

Feb 27

HOU113@

ORL108today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-14259%

ORL+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -2.5↗SpreadBet HOU -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

214.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat ORL 113-108. K. Durant led the way with 40 points and 8 rebounds. HOU outscored the other side 38-27 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 28 REB · 15 AST

GS 61

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 36

ORLstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL4th Quarter · 8:39 · 87-90

+11pp→ 60% WP

Desmond Bane · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)

ORL4th Quarter · 8:02 · 90-93

+12pp→ 61% WP

Jevon Carter · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)

HOU4th Quarter · 5:39 · 97-97

+14pp→ 50% WP

Kevin Durant · makes 26-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	22	21	38	32	113
ORL	29	24	27	28	108

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · ORL won 2

Jr. 6

Bane 9

Durant 10

Bane 8

Durant 11

Banchero 7

Durant 14

Bane 9

HOU

ORL

Shooting comparison

HOU

ORL

52%

43-82

45%

40-88

38%

11-29

3PT

41%

15-37

80%

16-20

62%

13-21

Play-by-play · 445 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 113·ORL 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 113·ORL 108
Q4·0.0
Magic offensive team rebound
HOU 113·ORL 108
Q4·0.0
Desmond Bane misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 113·ORL 108
−2pp
Q4·4.6
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 113·ORL 108
+0.9pp
Q4·4.6
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 112·ORL 108
Q4·4.6
Paolo Banchero personal take foul
HOU 111·ORL 108
−3pp
Q4·5.7
Anthony Black makes 26-foot three pointer (Paolo Banchero assists)
·
HOU 111·ORL 108
+3pp
Q4·10.1
Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jonathan Isaac
·
HOU 111·ORL 105
Q4·10.1
Magic Full timeout
HOU 111·ORL 105
Q4·10.1
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 111·ORL 105
+0.8pp
Q4·10.1
Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Tristan da Silva
·
HOU 110·ORL 105
Q4·10.1
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 110·ORL 105
Q4·10.1
Wendell Carter Jr. personal foul
·
HOU 109·ORL 105
−3pp
Q4·11.1
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 109·ORL 105
Q4·11.4
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)
· ·
HOU 109·ORL 105
+3pp
Q4·15.5
Magic offensive team rebound
HOU 109·ORL 102
Q4·18.8
Desmond Bane misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 109·ORL 102
−1pp
Q4·22.1
Magic Full timeout
HOU 109·ORL 102
Q4·22.7
Reed Sheppard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 109·ORL 102
−8pp
Q4·42.8
Anthony Black out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
HOU 106·ORL 102
−8pp
Q4·51.8
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
HOU 106·ORL 102
+2pp
Q4·53.9
Alperen Sengun misses 5-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
HOU 106·ORL 102
+10pp
Q4·1:07
Desmond Bane personal foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 106·ORL 102
−7pp
Q4·1:15
Josh Okogie offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 106·ORL 102
−5pp
Q4·1:18
Kevin Durant misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 106·ORL 102
+4pp
Q4·1:42
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
HOU 106·ORL 102
−5pp
Q4·1:42
Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jevon Carter
·
HOU 106·ORL 101
Q4·1:42
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 106·ORL 101
+2pp
Q4·1:42
Tari Eason enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.
·
HOU 106·ORL 100

Betting line

HOU -2.5·O/U 214.5·HOU -142/ORL +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 113–108. Decided by 5.

HOU -2.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 214.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

ORL

53.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.2

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR