NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7PHI

MIA

31-29

117124

PHI

33-26

NBAThu, Feb 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPHI -2.5

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

24.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

26.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 5:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	35	18	5-10	2-6	6-6	+3	2	2
B. AdebayoC · #13	36	29	10-20	4-8	5-8	+2	14	3
N. PowellG · #24	10	3	1-5	1-4	—	-9	3	2
D. MitchellG · #45	24	3	1-3	1-1	—	+12	2	2
P. LarssonG · #9	33	9	3-6	2-2	1-2	-14	4	6
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	9	3	1-2	0-1	1-1	-6	1	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	30	19	7-14	1-4	4-5	-8	4	2
K. WareC · #7	12	5	2-7	1-2	—	-9	6	0
T. HerroG · #14	32	25	9-18	4-10	3-4	+1	4	7
K. JakucionisG · #25	17	3	1-2	1-2	—	-7	5	1
Team		117	40-87	17-40	20-26		45	25
DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson, V. Goldin, D. Smith, J. Young

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	31	9	4-4	1-1	—	-4	2	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	31	26	8-20	2-6	8-9	0	11	4
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	34	21	8-13	3-5	2-2	+12	8	3
T. MaxeyG · #0	38	28	9-26	5-12	5-5	+6	4	11
V. EdgecombeG · #77	39	19	8-13	1-6	2-2	+1	8	4
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	11	2	1-2	—	—	+10	6	3
J. WalkerF · #33	4	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
A. BonaC · #30	15	4	2-2	—	—	+4	3	0
C. PaynePG · #20	16	6	2-6	2-6	—	+6	3	1
Q. GrimesG · #5	21	9	3-8	3-7	—	-1	4	0
Team		124	45-94	17-43	17-18		49	26
DNP: J. Edwards, A. Drummond, K. Lowry, T. Martin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

40-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-94

FG %

17-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-43

20-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 23

MIA127@

PHI117

Feb 27

MIA117@

PHI124today

Mar 30

PHI109@

MIA119

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

240.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA+11447%

PHI-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -2.5↗SpreadBet PHI -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

240.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat MIA 124-117. T. Maxey paced them with 28 PTS, 4 REB, 11 AST. PHI outscored the other side 37-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

55 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST

GS 43

PHIstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

103 PTS · 33 REB · 22 AST

GS 92

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI4th Quarter · 5:05 · 110-112

+20pp→ 70% WP

Andrew Wiggins · enters the game for Kasparas Jakucionis

MIA4th Quarter · 2:44 · 117-116

+16pp→ 52% WP

Tyler Herro · makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot

MIA2nd Quarter · 4:11 · 47-59

+17pp→ 17% WP

Kelly Oubre Jr. · out of bounds lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	35	22	34	26	117
PHI	36	37	26	25	124

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · PHI won 2

Adebayo 8

Maxey 20

Adebayo 8

Edgecombe 12

Adebayo 13

Barlow 5

Wiggins 8

Maxey 61

MIA

PHI

Shooting comparison

MIA

PHI

46%

40-87

48%

45-94

43%

17-40

3PT

40%

17-43

77%

20-26

94%

17-18

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 117·PHI 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 117·PHI 124
Q4·13.3
Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound
MIA 117·PHI 124
Q4·16.8
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIA 117·PHI 124
+5pp
Q4·24.3
Kelly Oubre Jr. personal foul
MIA 117·PHI 124
−4pp
Q4·28.4
Heat Full timeout
MIA 117·PHI 124
Q4·29.2
Joel Embiid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 117·PHI 124
+7pp
Q4·50.7
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
MIA 117·PHI 121
+2pp
Q4·53.5
Tyler Herro misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIA 117·PHI 121
+2pp
Q4·1:07
Joel Embiid enters the game for Adem Bona
·
MIA 117·PHI 121
Q4·1:07
(01:07) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MIA 117·PHI 121
+3pp
Q4·1:07
Adem Bona offensive goaltending turnoverBIG MOMENT
MIA 117·PHI 121
−5pp
Q4·1:26
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
MIA 117·PHI 121
+2pp
Q4·1:31
Bam Adebayo misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIA 117·PHI 121
+5pp
Q4·1:52
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 117·PHI 121
+16pp
Q4·2:08
Adem Bona defensive rebound
MIA 117·PHI 118
+3pp
Q4·2:11
Tyler Herro misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 117·PHI 118
+8pp
Q4·2:24
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIA 117·PHI 118
−8pp
Q4·2:24
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 117·PHI 117
+2pp
Q4·2:24
Andrew Wiggins shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIA 117·PHI 116
+13pp
Q4·2:44
Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIA 117·PHI 116
−16pp
Q4·2:53
VJ Edgecombe out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
MIA 114·PHI 116
−7pp
Q4·3:19
Tyler Herro makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 114·PHI 116
−6pp
Q4·3:31
Bam Adebayo enters the game for Kel'el Ware
·
MIA 112·PHI 116
Q4·3:31
Heat Full timeout
MIA 112·PHI 116
Q4·3:32
Tyrese Maxey makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 112·PHI 116
+6pp
Q4·3:37
Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound
MIA 112·PHI 114
+2pp
Q4·3:40
Kel'el Ware misses 6-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 112·PHI 114
+6pp
Q4·4:01
VJ Edgecombe makes 4-foot fade away jump shot (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 112·PHI 114
+7pp
Q4·4:22
Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIA 112·PHI 112
−14pp

Betting line

PHI -2.5·O/U 240.5·MIA +114/PHI -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off Miami Heat, 124–117.

PHI -2.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 240.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI · G
DEFL3.194
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bam AdebayoMIA
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

PHI

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

46.8%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

13.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR