NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+24CHA

CHA

29-31

133109

IND

15-45

NBAThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesIND leads series 2-1VegasCHA -12.5

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Micah Potter

C · #11

16.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 17pp · 1st Quarter · 7:22

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	24	7	3-6	1-2	—	+23	3	2
M. DiabateF · #14	30	14	7-8	—	—	+18	11	4
B. MillerF · #24	26	33	11-19	6-11	5-6	+14	7	4
L. BallG · #1	22	20	7-12	3-8	3-3	+24	4	8
K. KnueppelG · #7	31	28	10-17	8-12	—	+26	4	2
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	23	9	3-5	3-4	—	+1	4	2
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	12	4	2-2	—	—	+9	4	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	8	5	2-2	—	1-1	-3	1	1
C. WhiteG · #3	17	7	2-8	0-4	3-5	+4	1	6
J. GreenG · #10	20	0	—	—	—	-4	0	1
T. MannG · #23	10	4	1-3	1-3	1-2	-4	3	2
S. JamesG · #4	19	2	0-4	0-2	2-2	+12	4	2
Team		133	48-86	22-46	15-19		46	35
DNP: X. Tillman

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ToppinF · #1	8	3	1-4	0-3	1-2	-1	2	1
J. WalkerF · #5	31	16	7-17	2-7	—	-10	6	1
J. HuffC · #32	28	7	3-6	0-3	1-2	-32	4	3
A. NembhardG · #2	29	20	6-14	3-6	5-6	-12	3	7
B. SheppardG · #26	25	11	5-7	0-1	1-1	-13	5	3
Bench
M. PotterC · #11	26	19	6-11	5-7	2-2	+1	4	1
T.J. McConnellG · #9	17	9	4-9	0-1	1-2	-10	2	7
K. BrownG · #24	26	6	3-6	0-2	—	-17	5	1
Q. JacksonG · #29	31	13	4-9	0-2	5-5	-22	4	2
K. JonesG · #7	19	5	2-4	1-3	—	-4	2	2
Team		109	41-87	11-35	16-20		37	28
DNP: P. Siakam, A. Nesmith

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

IND

Home

48-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-87

FG %

22-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-35

15-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

IND leads series 2-1

Nov 20

CHA118@

IND127

Jan 9

IND114@

CHA112

Feb 27

CHA133@

IND109today

Apr 3

IND108@

CHA129

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-67587%

IND+49017%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -12.5↗SpreadBet CHA -12.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat IND 133-109. B. Miller paced them with 33 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. CHA outscored the other side 36-12 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

102 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 92

Bench(7)

31 PTS · 17 REB · 15 AST

GS 30

INDstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

52 PTS · 17 REB · 13 AST

GS 44

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND1st Quarter · 7:22 · 10-14

+17pp→ 39% WP

Brandon Miller · kicked ball violation

IND2nd Quarter · 11:40 · 31-37

+7pp→ 48% WP

Kam Jones · makes 26-foot three pointer

IND2nd Quarter · 5:05 · 49-40

+10pp→ 14% WP

Brandon Miller · misses 6-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	31	36	40	26	133
IND	34	12	36	27	109

Period scoring

CHA won 2 · IND won 2

Potter 9

Walker 7

Miller 8

Nembhard 4

Miller 19

Potter 12

Knueppel 8

Nembhard 9

CHA

IND

Shooting comparison

CHA

IND

56%

48-86

47%

41-87

48%

22-46

3PT

31%

11-35

79%

15-19

80%

16-20

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·9.8
shot clock turnover
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·32.0
Tre Mann defensive rebound
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·34.8
Quenton Jackson misses driving floating jump shot
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·42.2
Micah Potter defensive rebound
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·44.4
Jay Huff blocks Sion James 's 2-foot two point shot
·
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·45.1
Sion James offensive rebound
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·48.7
Sion James misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·1:08
Jay Huff bad pass turnover (Pat Connaughton steals)
·
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·1:23
Pat Connaughton makes 5-foot turnaround jump shot (Tre Mann assists)
·
CHA 133·IND 109
Q4·1:41
Pat Connaughton defensive rebound
CHA 131·IND 109
Q4·1:43
Kam Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHA 131·IND 109
Q4·1:56
Kobe Brown defensive rebound
CHA 131·IND 109
Q4·1:58
Tre Mann misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHA 131·IND 109
Q4·2:11
Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 131·IND 109
Q4·2:11
Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 131·IND 108
Q4·2:11
Sion James shooting foul
CHA 131·IND 107
Q4·2:21
Pat Connaughton makes free throw 1 of 1
CHA 131·IND 107
Q4·2:21
Micah Potter shooting foul
CHA 130·IND 107
Q4·2:21
Pat Connaughton makes 2-foot two point shot (Tre Mann assists)
·
CHA 130·IND 107
Q4·2:40
Moussa Diabate defensive rebound
CHA 128·IND 107
Q4·2:42
Micah Potter misses two point shot
CHA 128·IND 107
Q4·3:06
Pat Connaughton traveling turnover
CHA 128·IND 107
Q4·3:16
Quenton Jackson kicked ball violation
·
CHA 128·IND 107
Q4·3:23
Moussa Diabate enters the game for Grant Williams
·
CHA 128·IND 107
Q4·3:23
Jay Huff enters the game for Jarace Walker
·
CHA 128·IND 107
Q4·3:23
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 128·IND 107
Q4·3:25
Quenton Jackson makes running layup (Kobe Brown assists)
·
CHA 128·IND 107
Q4·3:28
Kobe Brown defensive rebound
CHA 128·IND 105

Betting line

CHA -12.5·O/U 229.5·CHA -675/IND +490

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 133–109. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -12.5 cashed (won by 24). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

IND

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

45.8%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

26.2

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR