CLE
37-23
MIL
26-31
CLE · top performer
Jarrett Allen
C · #31
27
Pts
11
Reb
1
Ast
MIL · top performer
Kevin Porter Jr.
G · #7
20
Pts
8
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 3.0
NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-2 | +9 | 4 | 4 | |
| 32 | 27 | 10-15 | — | 7-8 | -10 | 11 | 1 | |
| 35 | 26 | 8-14 | 3-6 | 7-9 | -5 | 2 | 5 | |
| 34 | 14 | 6-13 | 2-8 | 0-2 | -2 | 5 | 2 | |
| 35 | 14 | 5-16 | 1-6 | 3-3 | -19 | 10 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | — | -3 | 2 | 0 | |
| 16 | 11 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | +8 | 2 | 0 | |
| 22 | 8 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | +5 | 2 | 9 | |
| 29 | 14 | 5-9 | 4-8 | — | +6 | 4 | 3 | |
| Team | 116 | 42-87 | 12-40 | 20-27 | 44 | 28 | ||
| DNP: E. Mobley, T. Proctor | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 17 | 6-14 | 5-10 | — | +5 | 4 | 5 | |
| 24 | 15 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 0-1 | +5 | 3 | 0 | |
| 38 | 20 | 10-16 | 0-2 | — | +7 | 8 | 5 | |
| 38 | 15 | 5-10 | 5-10 | — | +15 | 1 | 2 | |
| 35 | 18 | 8-13 | 2-6 | — | +12 | 3 | 9 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-4 | — | -4 | 5 | 1 | |
| 13 | 5 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 2-2 | -12 | 0 | 2 | |
| 29 | 11 | 5-6 | — | 1-2 | -5 | 11 | 2 | |
| 16 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | — | -13 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 118 | 48-88 | 19-45 | 3-5 | 36 | 28 | ||
| DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, P. Nance, G. Harris, G. Trent Jr., A. Jackson Jr. | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
55
28
Ast
28
Team stats
CLE
Away
Stat
MIL
Home
42-87
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
48-88
48
FG %
55
12-40
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
19-45
20-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
3-5
28
Assists
28
11
Turnovers
13
Season series
CLE leads series 2-1
MIL113@CLE118MIL106@CLE118CLE116@MIL118todayCLE123@MIL116Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
220.5
Standard · -5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CLE-15561%MIL+13043%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
220.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIL beat CLE 118-116. K. Porter Jr. led with 20 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST. Dennis Schroder's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIL vs CLE
Starters vs bench
production by unitCLEstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 32 REB · 15 AST
GS 67
Bench(5)
35 PTS · 12 REB · 13 AST
GS 35
MILstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
85 PTS · 19 REB · 21 AST
GS 72
Bench(4)
33 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST
GS 24
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJericho Sims · makes 5-foot alley oop dunk (Ryan Rollins assists)
AJ Green · personal foul
Dennis Schroder · misses two point shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 33 | 30 | 31 | 22 | 116 |
| MIL | 33 | 29 | 31 | 25 | 118 |
Period scoring
CLE won 1 · MIL won 1
Q1
Schroder 5
Ellis 10
Q2
Allen 12
Jr. 8
Q3
Schroder 7
Kuzma 9
Q4
Allen 7
Sims 7
Shooting comparison
48%
42-87
FG
55%
48-88
30%
12-40
3PT
42%
19-45
74%
20-27
FT
60%
3-5
Play-by-play · 430 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 116·MIL 118
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 116·MIL 118
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
CLE 116·MIL 118
+3pp
- Q4·1.1
Jarrett Allen offensive rebound
CLE 116·MIL 118
+3pp
- Q4·3.0
Dennis Schroder misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 116·MIL 118
+30pp
- Q4·20.2
Kevin Porter Jr. makes 15-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 116·MIL 118
+16pp
- Q4·35.6
Bobby Portis enters the game for Kyle Kuzma
·
CLE 116·MIL 116
- Q4·35.6
Bucks Full timeout
CLE 116·MIL 116
- Q4·35.6
Dennis Schroder makes 8-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 116·MIL 116
−11pp
- Q4·49.8
Ryan Rollins lost ball turnover (Keon Ellis steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 114·MIL 116
−14pp
- Q4·50.9
Ryan Rollins offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·MIL 116
+10pp
- Q4·53.4
Kyle Kuzma misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·MIL 116
−8pp
- Q4·1:14
Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 114·MIL 116
+9pp
- Q4·1:14
Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 113·MIL 116
−3pp
- Q4·1:14
AJ Green personal foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·MIL 116
−14pp
- Q4·1:14
Jaylon Tyson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·MIL 116
−6pp
- Q4·1:17
Keon Ellis misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·MIL 116
+6pp
- Q4·1:29
Sam Merrill defensive rebound
CLE 112·MIL 116
−2pp
- Q4·1:30
Kevin Porter Jr. misses driving layup
CLE 112·MIL 116
+2pp
- Q4·1:39
(01:39) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Cavaliers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·MIL 116
−7pp
- Q4·1:39
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 112·MIL 116
- Q4·1:39
Dennis Schroder steps out of bounds turnoverBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·MIL 116
+8pp
- Q4·1:45
Ryan Rollins makes driving layup (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 112·MIL 116
+9pp
- Q4·2:00
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
CLE 112·MIL 114
+3pp
- Q4·2:02
Sam Merrill misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·MIL 114
+8pp
- Q4·2:22
Ryan Rollins makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·MIL 114
+9pp
- Q4·2:40
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 112·MIL 112
+7pp
- Q4·2:40
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 111·MIL 112
−2pp
- Q4·2:40
Kyle Kuzma shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·MIL 112
−13pp
- Q4·2:57
Kevin Porter Jr. makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 110·MIL 112
+9pp
Betting line
CLE -3.5·O/U 220.5·CLE -155/MIL +130
Recap · NBA
ilwaukee Bucks held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 118–116. Decided by 2.
MIL +3.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 220.5 OVER by 13.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Jericho SimsMIL · CTS%77.299+- Jarrett AllenCLE · CCONT9.899
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · GDRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · GDEFL4.098
Myles TurnerMIL · CCONT8.195
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- James HardenCLE19.6± 6.6high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
Rebounds
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
- Jarrett AllenCLE7.3± 2.3high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL5.1± 2.3high
Assists
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Ryan RollinsMIL5.5± 1.9high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
- Olivier SarrCLE0.8± 1.6low
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
CLE
league avg
MIL
55.6%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶56.5%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
47.7%
117.4
PPG
114.9
110.6
27.1
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
13.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.5