NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+31HOU

SAC

13-47

97128

HOU

36-21

NBAWed, Feb 25FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasHOU -13.5

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

15.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

35.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ HOU

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	30	6	3-11	0-2	—	-14	10	1
K. MurrayF · #13	9	3	0-2	0-1	3-3	-7	1	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	29	11	5-9	—	1-2	-13	8	2
R. WestbrookG · #18	25	22	10-19	1-7	1-1	-9	5	3
D. DeRozanG · #10	24	15	4-7	—	7-8	-9	1	7
Bench
D. EubanksF · #19	9	1	0-1	—	1-2	-6	5	1
M. MonkG · #0	19	7	2-8	1-5	2-2	-25	5	3
D. PlowdenG · #29	24	9	4-10	1-5	—	-18	2	0
P. Baldwin Jr.G · #23	21	5	2-6	0-2	1-2	-24	3	1
K. HayesG · #3	20	3	1-9	1-3	—	-17	1	3
N. CliffordG · #5	29	15	6-11	3-7	—	-13	2	1
Team		97	37-93	7-32	16-20		43	22
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Carter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	28	21	8-13	2-5	3-3	+7	4	5
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	33	12	6-12	0-4	—	+10	2	3
T. EasonF · #17	21	8	3-4	1-1	1-1	+2	2	1
A. SengunC · #28	32	26	9-13	1-2	7-8	+23	13	11
R. SheppardG · #15	32	28	9-21	7-16	3-3	+24	4	2
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	15	5	2-4	1-2	—	+8	1	1
I. CrawfordF · #27	17	3	1-2	1-2	—	+7	4	1
C. CapelaC · #30	13	2	0-3	—	2-2	+19	4	0
A. HolidayG · #0	20	7	3-4	1-2	—	+24	1	3
J. OkogieG · #20	24	14	5-7	3-4	1-2	+30	7	0
J. DavisonG · #4	5	2	1-3	0-1	—	+1	2	2
Team		128	47-86	17-39	17-19		44	29
DNP: D. Finney-Smith

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

37-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-86

FG %

7-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-39

16-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Dec 4

SAC95@

HOU121

Dec 22

HOU124@

SAC125

Jan 12

HOU98@

SAC111

Feb 26

SAC97@

HOU128today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+57515%

HOU-85089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -13.5↗SpreadBet HOU -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat SAC 128-97. A. Sengun stuffed the line with 26 PTS, 13 REB, and 11 AST. HOU outscored the other side 44-28 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 25 REB · 13 AST

GS 45

Bench(6)

40 PTS · 18 REB · 9 AST

GS 27

HOUstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 25 REB · 22 AST

GS 89

Bench(6)

33 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 29

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	22	28	26	21	97
HOU	33	44	31	20	128

Period scoring

SAC won 1 · HOU won 3

Westbrook 17

Durant 9

DeRozan 7

Sengun 12

DeRozan 8

Jr. 28

Clifford 5

Jr. 4

SAC

HOU

Shooting comparison

SAC

HOU

40%

37-93

55%

47-86

22%

7-32

3PT

44%

17-39

80%

16-20

89%

17-19

Play-by-play · 442 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·3.1
shot clock turnover
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·27.1
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·27.1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses tip shot
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·27.1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. offensive rebound
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·28.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses tip shot
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·28.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. offensive rebound
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·32.1
Daeqwon Plowden misses 27-foot three point jumper
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·39.3
Daeqwon Plowden defensive rebound
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·41.5
Aaron Holiday misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·58.4
Drew Eubanks makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 97·HOU 128
Q4·58.4
Kings offensive team rebound
SAC 96·HOU 128
Q4·58.4
Drew Eubanks misses free throw 1 of 2
SAC 96·HOU 128
Q4·58.4
Kings Full timeout
SAC 96·HOU 128
Q4·58.4
Aaron Holiday shooting foul
SAC 96·HOU 128
Q4·1:03
Drew Eubanks defensive rebound
SAC 96·HOU 128
Q4·1:04
JD Davison misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 96·HOU 128
Q4·1:27
Daeqwon Plowden makes 3-foot dunk (Drew Eubanks assists)
·
SAC 96·HOU 128
Q4·1:38
JD Davison makes 8-foot pullup jump shot
SAC 94·HOU 128
Q4·1:54
JD Davison defensive rebound
SAC 94·HOU 126
Q4·1:57
Nique Clifford misses 27-foot three point jumper
SAC 94·HOU 126
Q4·2:04
Aaron Holiday bad pass turnover (Killian Hayes steals)
·
SAC 94·HOU 126
Q4·2:26
Daeqwon Plowden makes 2-foot driving dunk (Killian Hayes assists)
·
SAC 94·HOU 126
Q4·2:34
Aaron Holiday makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (JD Davison assists)
·
SAC 92·HOU 126
Q4·2:58
Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 4-foot running dunk (Nique Clifford assists)
·
SAC 92·HOU 124
Q4·3:03
Isaiah Crawford lost ball turnover (Nique Clifford steals)
·
SAC 90·HOU 124
Q4·3:30
Nique Clifford makes running layup (Patrick Baldwin Jr. assists)
·
SAC 90·HOU 124
Q4·3:35
Aaron Holiday bad pass turnover (Daeqwon Plowden steals)
·
SAC 88·HOU 124
Q4·3:48
Isaiah Crawford defensive rebound
SAC 88·HOU 124

Betting line

HOU -13.5·O/U 222.5·SAC +575/HOU -850

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Sacramento Kings, 128–97. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

HOU -13.5 cashed (won by 31). Total cleared the 222.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Keegan MurraySAC · F
CONT7.894
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
19.1± 6.9high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high
Alperen SengunHOU
5.6± 2.4high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

HOU

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

114.1

25.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR