MIN
36-23
POR
28-31
MIN · top performer
Jaden McDaniels
F · #3
29
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
POR · top performer
Donovan Clingan
C · #23
11
Pts
16
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 5:26
NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 13 | 5-9 | — | 3-4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | |
| 37 | 29 | 12-16 | 5-6 | 0-1 | +10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 36 | 10 | 4-5 | — | 2-2 | +5 | 19 | 4 | |
| 33 | 19 | 7-13 | 5-10 | — | +4 | 1 | 4 | |
| 38 | 34 | 11-27 | 5-13 | 7-10 | +7 | 4 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-3 | — | +3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 24 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -10 | 1 | 2 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 124 | 47-88 | 17-35 | 13-19 | 41 | 26 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, M. Conley, J. Clark | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 21 | 3-12 | 2-5 | 13-15 | -7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 37 | 11 | 5-14 | 1-5 | 0-2 | -12 | 4 | 5 | |
| 29 | 16 | 7-10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | +1 | 5 | 1 | |
| 36 | 11 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | -4 | 16 | 5 | |
| 33 | 22 | 9-16 | 2-4 | 2-2 | -8 | 3 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 10 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 15 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-5 | — | +5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 29 | 19 | 7-18 | 1-6 | 4-4 | +5 | 6 | 5 | |
| 16 | 3 | 1-1 | — | 1-2 | +2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 121 | 42-89 | 14-35 | 23-30 | 44 | 27 | ||
| DNP: D. Avdija, R. Williams III, J. Cooke, B. Wesley, S. Sharpe | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
53
FG %
47
26
Ast
27
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
POR
Home
47-88
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-89
53
FG %
47
17-35
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-35
13-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-30
26
Assists
27
16
Turnovers
16
Season series
MIN leads series 3-0
MIN118@POR114POR109@MIN133MIN124@POR121todayPOR108@MIN104Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
234.5
High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-23870%POR+19534%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
234.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat POR 124-121. J. McDaniels paced them with 29 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
105 PTS · 37 REB · 20 AST
GS 93
Bench(4)
19 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
GS 16
PORstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 33 REB · 17 AST
GS 70
Bench(4)
40 PTS · 11 REB · 10 AST
GS 32
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJerami Grant · lost ball turnover (Naz Reid steals)
Sidy Cissoko · shooting foul
Jrue Holiday · misses 13-foot fade away jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 33 | 29 | 34 | 28 | 124 |
| POR | 27 | 32 | 35 | 27 | 121 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · POR won 2
Q1
McDaniels 11
Murray 7
Q2
Edwards 17
Holiday 8
Q3
McDaniels 12
Holiday 12
Q4
Gobert 8
Grant 8
Shooting comparison
53%
47-88
FG
47%
42-89
49%
17-35
3PT
40%
14-35
68%
13-19
FT
77%
23-30
Play-by-play · 492 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 124·POR 121
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 124·POR 121
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MIN 124·POR 121
- Q4·0.3
Jerami Grant makes 33-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)
·
MIN 124·POR 121
- Q4·1.5
(00:01.5) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MIN 124·POR 118
- Q4·1.5
Toumani Camara defensive goaltending violation
MIN 124·POR 118
- Q4·1.5
Jaden McDaniels makes driving layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
·
MIN 124·POR 118
−2pp
- Q4·5.2
Vit Krejci makes 23-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)
·
MIN 122·POR 118
+2pp
- Q4·7.2
Vit Krejci enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
MIN 122·POR 115
- Q4·7.2
Donovan Clingan enters the game for Vit Krejci
·
MIN 122·POR 115
- Q4·7.2
Trail Blazers Full timeout
MIN 122·POR 115
- Q4·7.2
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 122·POR 115
- Q4·7.2
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 121·POR 115
- Q4·7.2
Jrue Holiday personal take foul
MIN 120·POR 115
−0.8pp
- Q4·7.8
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 120·POR 115
- Q4·8.3
Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)
·
MIN 120·POR 115
+0.6pp
- Q4·16.2
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
MIN 120·POR 112
- Q4·18.6
Anthony Edwards misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 120·POR 112
+0.5pp
- Q4·18.6
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 120·POR 112
- Q4·18.6
Anthony Edwards misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 120·POR 112
- Q4·18.6
Scoot Henderson personal foul
MIN 120·POR 112
- Q4·31.4
Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 120·POR 112
- Q4·31.4
Toumani Camara personal take foul
MIN 120·POR 112
- Q4·37.4
Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 120·POR 112
- Q4·37.4
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
MIN 120·POR 111
−0.7pp
- Q4·37.4
Jerami Grant misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 120·POR 111
−1pp
- Q4·37.4
Rudy Gobert personal foul
MIN 120·POR 111
+2pp
- Q4·40.2
Scoot Henderson defensive rebound
MIN 120·POR 111
- Q4·42.9
Anthony Edwards misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 120·POR 111
- Q4·1:00
Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
MIN 120·POR 111
Betting line
MIN -6.5·O/U 234.5·MIN -238/POR +195
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves went into Portland Trail Blazers and beat them, 124–121. Decided by 3.
POR +6.5 cashed (MIN won by 3). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 10.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 12 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.698
Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397- Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Toumani CamaraPOR · FCONT6.489
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Ja MorantPOR8.1± 3.9high
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
Blocks
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Toumani CamaraPOR1.4± 1.4high
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN1.2± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIN
league avg
POR
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.0%
47.6%
FG%
47.0
45.1%
116.8
PPG
114.9
114.6
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
16.2