NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ORL

ORL

31-26

110109

LAL

34-23

NBATue, Feb 24FinalSeriesORL leads series 1-0VegasLAL -6.5

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

27.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Deandre Ayton

C · #5

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 6.7

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	38	36	12-22	2-6	10-11	+6	10	6
T. da SilvaF · #23	32	13	5-9	3-5	—	-6	6	3
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	36	20	9-13	0-2	2-2	0	11	2
D. BaneG · #3	36	22	9-19	2-8	2-2	+5	1	6
A. BlackG · #0	30	8	4-13	0-2	0-4	+2	4	4
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	11	4	2-6	0-2	—	-5	3	1
J. IsaacF · #1	15	3	1-3	—	1-2	-2	4	3
J. CarterG · #2	16	0	0-4	0-1	—	+4	4	0
J. HowardG · #13	21	4	1-5	0-3	2-2	0	4	1
J. RichardsonG · #11	5	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
Team		110	43-94	7-29	17-23		47	26
DNP: J. Cain, N. Penda, G. Bitadze

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	32	21	8-13	2-6	3-4	-1	6	4
D. AytonC · #5	32	21	8-11	—	5-5	-2	13	0
M. SmartG · #36	23	3	1-2	—	1-2	+8	1	1
L. DoncicG · #77	38	22	8-24	2-10	4-9	+1	9	15
A. ReavesG · #15	35	18	6-16	2-5	4-4	-4	2	3
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	11	0	—	—	—	+1	3	0
R. HachimuraF · #28	26	10	4-7	2-5	—	-3	0	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	12	2	1-2	—	—	-6	2	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	16	3	1-4	1-3	—	0	2	0
L. KennardG · #10	15	9	3-4	—	3-4	+1	1	1
Team		109	40-83	9-29	20-28		39	24
DNP: D. Timme, D. Knecht, K. Bufkin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

43-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-83

FG %

7-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-29

17-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL leads series 1-0

Feb 25

ORL110@

LAL109today

Mar 21

LAL105@

ORL104

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+20033%

LAL-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -6.5↗SpreadBet LAL -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat LAL 110-109. P. Banchero led the way with 36 points and 10 rebounds. LAL outscored the other side 33-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 32 REB · 21 AST

GS 80

Bench(5)

11 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST

GS 9

LALstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 31 REB · 23 AST

GS 67

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL4th Quarter · 1:18 · 105-106

+22pp→ 54% WP

Deandre Ayton · shooting foul

ORL4th Quarter · 35.4 · 108-107

+19pp→ 53% WP

Desmond Bane · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)

ORL4th Quarter · 6.7 · 110-109

+30pp→ 69% WP

Wendell Carter Jr. · makes layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	25	28	26	31	110
LAL	33	23	24	29	109

Period scoring

ORL won 3 · LAL won 1

Jr. 9

Doncic 11

Banchero 10

Jr. 13

Banchero 17

Reaves 10

Bane 12

Reaves 8

ORL

LAL

Shooting comparison

ORL

LAL

46%

43-94

48%

40-83

24%

7-29

3PT

31%

9-29

74%

17-23

71%

20-28

Play-by-play · 483 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 110·LAL 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 110·LAL 109
−5pp
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
ORL 110·LAL 109
Q4·1.0
Lakers offensive team rebound
ORL 110·LAL 109
−3pp
Q4·2.2
LeBron James misses three point shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 110·LAL 109
−24pp
Q4·6.7
Lakers Full timeout
ORL 110·LAL 109
Q4·6.7
Wendell Carter Jr. makes layupBIG MOMENT
·
ORL 110·LAL 109
−30pp
Q4·8.7
Anthony Black offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·LAL 109
−7pp
Q4·10.5
Paolo Banchero misses 13-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·LAL 109
+13pp
Q4·26.3
LeBron James makes 1-foot dunk (Luka Doncic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 108·LAL 109
+8pp
Q4·27.2
Luka Doncic offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·LAL 107
+10pp
Q4·30.7
Rui Hachimura misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 108·LAL 107
−10pp
Q4·34.6
Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Tristan da Silva
·
ORL 108·LAL 107
Q4·34.6
Lakers Full timeout
ORL 108·LAL 107
Q4·35.4
Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 108·LAL 107
−19pp
Q4·42.3
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 105·LAL 107
Q4·44.7
LeBron James misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ORL 105·LAL 107
−18pp
Q4·44.7
LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 105·LAL 107
+2pp
Q4·44.7
Anthony Black shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·LAL 106
+15pp
Q4·1:05
Wendell Carter Jr. vs. Deandre Ayton (Rui Hachimura gains possession)
· ·
ORL 105·LAL 106
Q4·1:05
Lakers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·LAL 106
+8pp
Q4·1:05
(01:05) [Magic] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Magic] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·LAL 106
−24pp
Q4·1:05
Magic Coach's ChallengeBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·LAL 106
+15pp
Q4·1:06
Luka Doncic misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
ORL 105·LAL 106
+3pp
Q4·1:17
Luka Doncic defensive rebound
ORL 105·LAL 106
Q4·1:18
Paolo Banchero misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
ORL 105·LAL 106
+18pp
Q4·1:18
Deandre Ayton shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·LAL 106
−22pp
Q4·1:18
Paolo Banchero makes 4-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·LAL 106
−7pp
Q4·1:30
Tristan da Silva defensive rebound
ORL 103·LAL 106
−2pp
Q4·1:35
Austin Reaves misses 23-foot three point jumper
ORL 103·LAL 106
−5pp

Betting line

LAL -6.5·O/U 228.5·ORL +200/LAL -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic went into Los Angeles Lakers and beat them, 110–109. It came down to the final possession.

ORL +6.5 cashed (LAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

LAL

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

114.2

PPG

114.9

114.8

26.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR