NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16BOS

BOS

38-19

9781

PHX

33-26

NBATue, Feb 24FinalSeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasBOS -5.5

BOS · top performer

Derrick White

G · #9

23.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Collin Gillespie

G · #12

12.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:36

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	29	16	6-14	4-10	—	+12	3	4
N. QuetaC · #88	27	14	5-10	—	4-4	+29	13	3
D. WhiteG · #9	34	22	9-18	4-11	0-1	+20	8	8
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	30	8	3-10	2-7	—	+25	5	1
B. ScheiermanG · #55	32	11	5-10	1-6	—	+13	11	2
Bench
D. BantonF · #45	4	0	—	—	—	-8	0	0
N. VucevicC · #4	19	8	4-11	0-3	—	-7	4	2
L. GarzaC · #52	4	3	1-4	1-3	—	-8	3	0
P. PritchardG · #11	34	8	2-13	0-5	4-4	+11	6	4
J. TonjeG · #8	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	0	0
J. WalshG · #27	9	5	2-3	1-1	—	+7	4	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	13	2	1-1	—	—	-6	4	0
Team		97	38-95	13-47	8-9		61	24
DNP: J. Brown

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	21	9	3-6	3-4	—	-19	2	1
R. DunnF · #0	25	10	4-6	2-2	—	-3	6	2
M. WilliamsC · #15	18	2	1-3	—	—	-23	5	1
C. GillespieG · #12	27	15	6-11	3-6	—	-5	3	3
J. GreenG · #4	26	13	5-18	1-8	2-2	-33	4	1
Bench
O. IghodaroF · #11	24	4	2-5	—	—	+1	3	5
R. FlemingF · #20	21	0	0-3	0-3	—	+4	2	0
K. MaluachC · #10	6	5	2-3	1-1	0-1	+6	2	0
G. AllenG · #8	24	14	2-12	1-9	9-10	-13	3	1
A. CoffeyG · #2	23	6	3-6	—	—	+5	1	1
J. BouyeaG · #17	19	0	0-4	0-2	—	-6	3	2
K. BreaG · #14	6	3	1-2	1-1	—	+6	0	1
Team		81	29-79	12-36	11-13		34	18

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

38-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-79

FG %

13-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-36

8-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Feb 25

BOS97@

PHX81today

Mar 16

PHX112@

BOS120

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

207.5

Defensive · -18.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-21869%

PHX+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -5.5↗SpreadBet BOS -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

207.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat PHX 97-81. D. White led with 22 PTS, 8 REB, 8 AST. BOS outscored the other side 30-11 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 40 REB · 18 AST

GS 72

Bench(7)

26 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST

GS 13

PHXstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

49 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST

GS 36

Bench(7)

32 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX2nd Quarter · 9:59 · 25-30

+7pp→ 53% WP

Nikola Vucevic · misses 9-foot two point shot

BOS2nd Quarter · 3:39 · 42-41

+7pp→ 63% WP

Derrick White · makes 31-foot three pointer (Sam Hauser assists)

PHX2nd Quarter · 2:36 · 44-42

+8pp→ 37% WP

Grayson Allen · makes free throw 1 of 3

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	21	29	30	17	97
PHX	26	20	11	24	81

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · PHX won 2

White 5

Green 7

White 13

O'Neale 6

Hauser 13

Green 4

Scheierman 5

Allen 5

BOS

PHX

Shooting comparison

BOS

PHX

40%

38-95

37%

29-79

28%

13-47

3PT

33%

12-36

89%

8-9

85%

11-13

Play-by-play · 435 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 97·PHX 81
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 97·PHX 81
Q4·3.9
shot clock turnover
BOS 97·PHX 81
Q4·30.3
Khaman Maluach makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamaree Bouyea assists)
·
BOS 97·PHX 81
Q4·36.4
Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound
BOS 97·PHX 78
Q4·39.3
Khaman Maluach blocks Luka Garza 's 7-foot two point shot
·
BOS 97·PHX 78
Q4·40.1
Luka Garza offensive rebound
BOS 97·PHX 78
Q4·43.9
John Tonje misses 26-foot three point jumper
BOS 97·PHX 78
Q4·53.5
Ryan Dunn loose ball foul
BOS 97·PHX 78
Q4·53.5
Celtics offensive team rebound
BOS 97·PHX 78
Q4·54.7
Payton Pritchard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 97·PHX 78
Q4·1:05
Payton Pritchard offensive rebound
BOS 97·PHX 78
Q4·1:09
Luka Garza misses 29-foot three point jumper
BOS 97·PHX 78
Q4·1:31
Ryan Dunn makes 22-foot three point jumper (Koby Brea assists)
·
BOS 97·PHX 78
Q4·1:40
John Tonje personal foul
BOS 97·PHX 75
Q4·1:49
Ryan Dunn defensive rebound
BOS 97·PHX 75
Q4·1:54
Luka Garza misses 27-foot three point jumper
BOS 97·PHX 75
Q4·2:02
Jamaree Bouyea personal foul
BOS 97·PHX 75
Q4·2:17
Luka Garza defensive rebound
BOS 97·PHX 75
Q4·2:20
Khaman Maluach misses free throw 1 of 1
BOS 97·PHX 75
Q4·2:20
Luka Garza shooting foul
BOS 97·PHX 75
Q4·2:20
Khaman Maluach makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Jamaree Bouyea assists)
·
BOS 97·PHX 75
Q4·2:33
Luka Garza makes 28-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)
·
BOS 97·PHX 73
Q4·2:48
Luka Garza defensive rebound
BOS 94·PHX 73
Q4·2:51
Ryan Dunn misses 1-foot two point shot
BOS 94·PHX 73
Q4·2:55
Khaman Maluach offensive rebound
BOS 94·PHX 73
Q4·2:58
Jamaree Bouyea misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
BOS 94·PHX 73
Q4·3:17
Luka Garza offensive foul turnover
BOS 94·PHX 73
Q4·3:17
Luka Garza offensive foul
BOS 94·PHX 73
Q4·3:30
Koby Brea makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)
·
BOS 94·PHX 73

Betting line

BOS -5.5·O/U 207.5·BOS -218/PHX +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 97–81.

BOS -5.5 cashed (won by 16). Total stayed UNDER 207.5 by 29.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

PHX

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

46.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

114.2

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

24.5

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR