NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11MIL

MIA

31-28

117128

MIL

25-31

NBATue, Feb 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIA -6.5

MIA · top performer

Andrew Wiggins

F · #22

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Kevin Porter Jr.

G · #7

31.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 35pp · 4th Quarter · 11:48

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	29	16	5-12	4-8	2-4	-4	8	5
B. AdebayoC · #13	31	18	8-19	2-8	—	-3	9	2
N. PowellG · #24	30	26	6-14	3-8	11-14	-8	6	0
D. MitchellG · #45	28	8	3-4	2-3	—	+3	6	8
P. LarssonG · #9	36	10	3-6	0-3	4-4	-9	6	5
Bench
M. GardnerF · #15	3	0	—	—	—	+5	1	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	22	9	4-9	1-3	—	+2	2	3
K. WareC · #7	19	14	5-8	1-3	3-4	-9	8	0
D. SmithG · #12	6	0	0-2	0-2	—	-3	0	2
T. HerroG · #14	26	14	5-17	3-9	1-1	-20	2	6
K. JakucionisG · #25	10	2	1-3	0-1	—	-9	3	1
Team		117	40-94	16-48	21-27		51	32
DNP: S. Fontecchio, K. Johnson, V. Goldin, J. Young

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	25	19	7-16	3-7	2-4	-6	4	0
M. TurnerC · #3	19	2	1-5	0-3	—	-4	5	0
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	37	32	11-20	2-4	8-8	+10	7	7
A. GreenG · #20	28	8	2-6	2-6	2-2	+12	5	4
R. RollinsG · #13	37	21	9-16	1-2	2-2	+4	4	5
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	24	21	8-14	5-10	—	+18	2	1
O. DiengF · #21	22	11	4-6	3-3	—	+5	6	1
J. SimsC · #00	29	8	4-4	—	—	+15	10	5
C. ThomasG · #24	20	6	2-10	0-4	2-3	+1	3	2
Team		128	48-97	16-39	16-19		46	25
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, P. Nance, G. Harris, G. Trent Jr., A. Jackson Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

40-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-97

FG %

16-48

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-39

21-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 27

MIL103@

MIA106

Feb 25

MIA117@

MIL128today

Mar 12

MIL105@

MIA112

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA-21869%

MIL+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -6.5↗SpreadBet MIA -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat MIA 128-117. K. Porter Jr. paced them with 32 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST. MIL outscored the other side 39-24 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 35 REB · 20 AST

GS 66

Bench(6)

39 PTS · 16 REB · 12 AST

GS 30

MILstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

46 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL2nd Quarter · 10:07 · 31-36

+20pp→ 54% WP

Kasparas Jakucionis · misses 25-foot three point jumper

MIA1st Quarter · 1:30 · 27-27

+20pp→ 62% WP

Tyler Herro · misses 9-foot turnaround jump shot

MIA4th Quarter · 11:48 · 93-89

+35pp→ 83% WP

Bobby Portis · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	29	29	35	24	117
MIL	30	33	26	39	128

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · MIL won 3

Powell 8

Kuzma 13

Herro 9

Mitchell 15

Adebayo 10

Jr. 6

Powell 9

Portis 19

MIA

MIL

Shooting comparison

MIA

MIL

43%

40-94

49%

48-97

33%

16-48

3PT

41%

16-39

78%

21-27

84%

16-19

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 117·MIL 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 117·MIL 128
Q4·6.3
shot clock turnover
MIA 117·MIL 128
Q4·30.3
Norman Powell out of bounds lost ball turnover
MIA 117·MIL 128
Q4·34.9
AJ Green makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 117·MIL 128
Q4·34.9
AJ Green makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 117·MIL 127
Q4·34.9
Bam Adebayo personal foul
MIA 117·MIL 126
Q4·45.7
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
MIA 117·MIL 126
Q4·47.2
Andrew Wiggins misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIA 117·MIL 126
+0.8pp
Q4·56.8
Jericho Sims makes alley oop dunk (AJ Green assists)
·
MIA 117·MIL 126
+2pp
Q4·1:14
Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 117·MIL 124
Q4·1:14
Davion Mitchell enters the game for Pelle Larsson
·
MIA 116·MIL 124
Q4·1:14
Heat offensive team rebound
MIA 116·MIL 124
+2pp
Q4·1:14
Norman Powell misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 116·MIL 124
+2pp
Q4·1:14
Jericho Sims personal foul
MIA 116·MIL 124
−4pp
Q4·1:18
Heat Full timeout
MIA 116·MIL 124
Q4·1:18
Ryan Rollins makes 13-foot step back jumpshot
MIA 116·MIL 124
+3pp
Q4·1:36
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
MIA 116·MIL 122
+1pp
Q4·1:40
Tyler Herro misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIA 116·MIL 122
+4pp
Q4·1:52
Ryan Rollins makes 19-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 116·MIL 122
+5pp
Q4·2:00
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
MIA 116·MIL 120
+2pp
Q4·2:03
Bam Adebayo misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIA 116·MIL 120
+6pp
Q4·2:15
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
MIA 116·MIL 120
−2pp
Q4·2:16
Kevin Porter Jr. misses 19-foot step back jumpshot
MIA 116·MIL 120
−4pp
Q4·2:31
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
MIA 116·MIL 120
+2pp
Q4·2:33
Norman Powell misses 28-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIA 116·MIL 120
+6pp
Q4·2:43
Kevin Porter Jr. makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 116·MIL 120
+7pp
Q4·2:54
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
MIA 116·MIL 118
Q4·2:55
Andrew Wiggins misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIA 116·MIL 118
+9pp
Q4·2:55
Tyler Herro enters the game for Davion Mitchell
·
MIA 116·MIL 118

Betting line

MIA -6.5·O/U 229.5·MIA -218/MIL +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks held off Miami Heat, 128–117.

MIL +6.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Bobby PortisMIA
6.2± 2.9high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high
Bam AdebayoMIA
0.6± 0.7high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

MIL

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

46.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR