NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9DAL

DAL

21-36

123114

BKN

15-42

NBATue, Feb 24FinalSeriesDAL wins series 3-0VegasDAL -1.5

DAL · top performer

Naji Marshall

F · #13

20.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

Nic Claxton

C · #33

20.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ BKN

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 30.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	12	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	0	5	1
D. GaffordF · #21	17	9	3-5	—	3-3	-5	4	1
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	30	13	5-8	1-3	2-2	+1	4	2
N. MarshallF · #13	36	21	7-13	—	7-9	+12	5	7
M. ChristieG · #00	29	13	5-12	1-5	2-2	+5	7	0
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	9	0	—	—	—	+9	2	0
C. MartinF · #16	23	3	1-4	0-1	1-2	+1	5	2
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	20	22	10-13	—	2-4	+5	5	1
K. ThompsonG · #31	23	17	6-12	5-10	—	+11	2	2
T. JonesG · #1	11	0	—	—	—	-5	4	0
B. WilliamsG · #10	29	19	9-11	1-2	—	+11	1	10
M. KellyG · #14	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
A. JohnsonG · #8	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		123	48-82	8-23	19-24		44	26

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	33	26	9-16	2-6	6-6	-4	0	3
N. ClowneyF · #21	33	22	6-9	4-5	6-10	+3	5	0
N. ClaxtonC · #33	32	16	7-10	—	2-3	+6	4	9
E. DeminG · #8	28	3	1-7	1-6	—	+3	5	2
N. TraoreG · #88	28	8	4-11	0-3	—	+2	3	6
Bench
D. WolfF · #2	14	4	1-3	1-3	1-2	-10	3	2
D. SharpeC · #20	16	7	3-7	—	1-2	-15	2	1
T. MannG · #14	19	17	6-9	2-3	3-4	-13	1	3
O. AgbajiG · #30	17	9	3-5	3-4	—	-7	3	2
D. PowellG · #4	21	2	1-3	0-2	—	-10	2	1
Team		114	41-80	13-32	19-27		28	29
DNP: J. Wilson, Z. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

48-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-80

FG %

8-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-32

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL wins series 3-0

Dec 13

BKN111@

DAL119

Jan 13

BKN105@

DAL113

Feb 25

DAL123@

BKN114today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-12055%

BKN+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat BKN 123-114. N. Marshall led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 25 REB · 11 AST

GS 54

Bench(8)

61 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST

GS 50

BKNstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 17 REB · 20 AST

GS 65

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 11 REB · 9 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN4th Quarter · 7:42 · 104-102

+9pp→ 28% WP

Terance Mann · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot

DAL4th Quarter · 6:56 · 107-102

+9pp→ 81% WP

Klay Thompson · makes 30-foot three point jumper (Marvin Bagley III assists)

DAL4th Quarter · 30.6 · 122-114

+17pp→ 100% WP

Naji Marshall · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	36	40	23	24	123
BKN	29	35	27	23	114

Period scoring

DAL won 3 · BKN won 1

III 7

Jr. 9

Thompson 9

Clowney 11

Williams 7

Jr. 7

Marshall 5

Mann 10

DAL

BKN

Shooting comparison

DAL

BKN

59%

48-82

51%

41-80

35%

8-23

3PT

41%

13-32

79%

19-24

70%

19-27

Play-by-play · 449 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·0.8
shot clock turnover
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·21.7
Tyus Jones defensive rebound
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·27.9
Michael Porter Jr. misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·30.6
Tyus Jones enters the game for Max Christie
·
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·30.6
Miles Kelly enters the game for Marvin Bagley III
·
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·30.6
AJ Johnson enters the game for Caleb Martin
·
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·30.6
Dwight Powell enters the game for Brandon Williams
· ·
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·30.6
Nets Full timeout
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·30.6
Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 123·BKN 114
Q4·30.6
Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 122·BKN 114
−17pp
Q4·30.6
Egor Demin personal foul
DAL 121·BKN 114
−1pp
Q4·50.6
Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 3 of 3
DAL 121·BKN 114
−2pp
Q4·50.6
Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 3
DAL 121·BKN 113
+1pp
Q4·50.6
Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 3
DAL 121·BKN 112
Q4·50.6
Caleb Martin shooting foul
DAL 121·BKN 111
+1pp
Q4·57.6
Max Christie makes 1-foot driving dunk (Naji Marshall assists)
·
DAL 121·BKN 111
−0.6pp
Q4·1:07
Marvin Bagley III defensive rebound
DAL 119·BKN 111
Q4·1:11
Noah Clowney misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 119·BKN 111
−1pp
Q4·1:11
Max Christie enters the game for P.J. Washington
·
DAL 119·BKN 111
Q4·1:11
Nets offensive team rebound
DAL 119·BKN 111
−1pp
Q4·1:11
Noah Clowney misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 119·BKN 111
−2pp
Q4·1:11
Brandon Williams shooting foul
·
DAL 119·BKN 111
+4pp
Q4·1:13
P.J. Washington lost ball turnover (Nolan Traore steals)
·
DAL 119·BKN 111
+0.8pp
Q4·1:32
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
DAL 119·BKN 111
Q4·1:32
Michael Porter Jr. misses driving layup
DAL 119·BKN 111
−1pp
Q4·1:43
Marvin Bagley III makes alley oop layup (Naji Marshall assists)
·
DAL 119·BKN 111
−2pp
Q4·1:55
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
DAL 117·BKN 111
−0.9pp
Q4·2:00
Michael Porter Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper
DAL 117·BKN 111
−3pp

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 226.5·DAL -120/BKN +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks went into Brooklyn Nets and beat them, 123–114.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Marvin Bagley IIIDAL · F
TS%66.193
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

BKN

52.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

25.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR