NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21PHI

PHI

32-26

135114

IND

15-44

NBATue, Feb 24FinalSeriesPHI leads series 3-0VegasPHI -10.5

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

29.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Micah Potter

C · #11

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 18pp · 2nd Quarter · 10:47

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	20	0	—	—	0-2	+22	3	1
J. EmbiidC · #21	26	27	11-17	1-4	4-5	-1	6	5
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	28	12	5-8	2-3	—	+4	4	2
T. MaxeyG · #0	34	32	10-22	2-8	10-10	+21	9	8
V. EdgecombeG · #77	30	23	9-13	2-4	3-3	+27	7	4
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	15	12	6-7	0-1	—	-3	4	2
J. WalkerF · #33	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	1	0
D. TerryF · #14	5	2	0-1	—	2-2	-4	0	1
J. EdwardsF · #11	7	2	1-2	0-1	—	-5	0	1
A. DrummondC · #1	7	2	1-3	0-1	—	-5	3	0
A. BonaC · #30	15	6	3-3	—	—	+27	5	3
C. PaynePG · #20	16	2	1-4	0-2	—	-3	0	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	27	15	6-11	1-4	2-3	+26	2	2
Team		135	53-92	8-29	21-25		44	29
DNP: K. Lowry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. WalkerF · #5	32	8	3-13	0-5	2-2	-16	10	6
J. HuffC · #32	25	4	2-7	0-4	—	-13	4	4
A. NembhardG · #2	28	23	8-17	3-9	4-5	-23	1	3
B. SheppardG · #26	28	12	4-12	2-6	2-2	-17	3	0
K. JonesG · #7	29	13	5-11	3-5	—	+10	6	3
Bench
M. PotterC · #11	23	23	9-11	3-5	2-3	-8	3	3
T.J. McConnellG · #9	15	7	3-7	—	1-2	-2	2	3
K. BrownG · #24	31	9	3-10	0-4	3-3	-12	10	4
Q. JacksonG · #29	28	15	4-7	2-5	5-5	-24	2	1
Team		114	41-95	13-43	19-22		41	27
DNP: P. Siakam, A. Nesmith

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

IND

Home

53-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-95

FG %

8-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-43

21-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI leads series 3-0

Dec 13

IND105@

PHI115

Jan 20

IND104@

PHI113

Feb 25

PHI135@

IND114today

Apr 10

PHI105@

IND94

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-53584%

IND+40020%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -10.5↗SpreadBet PHI -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat IND 135-114. T. Maxey paced them with 32 PTS, 9 REB, 8 AST. PHI outscored the other side 45-27 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 83

Bench(8)

41 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 39

INDstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 42

Bench(4)

54 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST

GS 44

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI2nd Quarter · 10:47 · 38-38

+18pp→ 65% WP

T.J. McConnell · shooting foul

IND2nd Quarter · 10:47 · 40-38

+10pp→ 35% WP

Quenton Jackson de · fensive goaltending violation

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	30	45	31	29	135
IND	38	27	20	29	114

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · IND won 1

Jr. 7

Jones 8

Embiid 14

Potter 9

Maxey 13

Nembhard 14

Watford 10

Jackson 13

PHI

IND

Shooting comparison

PHI

IND

58%

53-92

43%

41-95

28%

8-29

3PT

30%

13-43

84%

21-25

86%

19-22

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 135·IND 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 135·IND 114
Q4·9.8
Jay Huff defensive rebound
PHI 135·IND 114
Q4·12.6
Andre Drummond misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHI 135·IND 114
Q4·31.3
Jay Huff makes dunk (Kobe Brown assists)
·
PHI 135·IND 114
Q4·43.5
Dalen Terry makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 135·IND 112
Q4·43.5
Dalen Terry makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 134·IND 112
Q4·43.5
Ben Sheppard shooting foul
PHI 133·IND 112
Q4·44.2
Ben Sheppard bad pass turnover (Dalen Terry steals)
·
PHI 133·IND 112
Q4·45.5
Trendon Watford makes 3-foot turnaround jump shot
PHI 133·IND 112
Q4·58.1
Quenton Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 131·IND 112
Q4·58.1
Quenton Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 131·IND 111
Q4·58.1
Trendon Watford shooting foul
PHI 131·IND 110
Q4·1:04
Kobe Brown defensive rebound
PHI 131·IND 110
Q4·1:06
Justin Edwards misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 131·IND 110
Q4·1:10
Kobe Brown makes two point shot
PHI 131·IND 110
Q4·1:10
Kobe Brown offensive rebound
PHI 131·IND 108
Q4·1:10
Trendon Watford blocks Ben Sheppard's driving layup
·
PHI 131·IND 108
Q4·1:25
Justin Edwards makes 3-foot two point shot
PHI 131·IND 108
Q4·1:32
Kam Jones makes 5-foot floating jump shot
PHI 129·IND 108
Q4·1:43
Pacers defensive team rebound
PHI 129·IND 106
Q4·1:44
Trendon Watford misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHI 129·IND 106
Q4·2:02
Quenton Jackson makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Kobe Brown assists)
·
PHI 129·IND 106
Q4·2:06
Kobe Brown defensive rebound
PHI 129·IND 103
Q4·2:09
Andre Drummond misses 9-foot turnaround jump shot
PHI 129·IND 103
Q4·2:11
Andre Drummond offensive rebound
PHI 129·IND 103
Q4·2:13
Dalen Terry misses driving floating jump shot
PHI 129·IND 103
Q4·2:26
Andre Drummond defensive rebound
PHI 129·IND 103
Q4·2:28
Jay Huff misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHI 129·IND 103
Q4·2:41
Jay Huff defensive rebound
PHI 129·IND 103

Betting line

PHI -10.5·O/U 234.5·PHI -535/IND +400

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 135–114. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHI -10.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Micah PotterIND
6.1± 4.5high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

IND

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.3%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

45.8%

114.3

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR