NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15POR

POR

28-30

9277

PHX

33-25

NBASun, Feb 22FinalSeriesPHX wins series 2-1VegasPOR -3.5

POR · top performer

Donovan Clingan

C · #23

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Amir Coffey

G · #2

10.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 22pp · 3rd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	31	23	9-13	3-6	2-3	+29	2	1
T. CamaraF · #33	35	12	5-9	2-6	—	+26	10	2
D. AvdijaF · #8	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
D. ClinganC · #23	31	23	9-13	3-6	2-4	+19	13	3
J. HolidayG · #5	29	6	3-12	0-4	—	+1	5	7
Bench
K. MurrayF · #24	22	6	3-5	0-1	—	+9	2	1
R. Williams IIIC · #35	15	4	2-3	0-1	0-2	-3	5	0
M. ThybulleG · #4	12	3	1-2	1-1	—	-11	3	0
V. KrejciG · #27	18	0	0-5	0-4	—	-2	3	1
S. HendersonG · #00	30	11	4-14	1-6	2-2	+18	4	6
B. WesleyG · #1	2	2	1-2	0-1	—	-1	0	0
S. CissokoG · #91	15	2	1-3	0-1	—	-10	0	2
Team		92	38-81	10-37	6-11		47	23
DNP: S. Sharpe

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	25	0	0-5	0-4	—	-10	7	0
R. DunnF · #0	31	2	1-9	0-4	—	-18	6	2
M. WilliamsC · #15	15	6	3-8	—	—	-13	5	0
C. GillespieG · #12	33	18	7-14	4-8	—	-11	3	3
J. GreenG · #4	22	13	6-16	1-7	—	-6	3	1
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	12	2	0-4	0-2	2-2	-3	1	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	17	4	2-3	—	—	-5	2	3
R. FlemingF · #20	22	6	2-4	2-4	—	+2	1	0
K. MaluachC · #10	16	7	3-5	1-1	—	+6	7	0
A. CoffeyG · #2	23	8	3-7	0-2	2-2	-13	4	4
J. BouyeaG · #17	21	8	3-8	0-1	2-2	-5	2	3
K. BreaG · #14	2	3	1-2	1-2	—	+1	0	0
Team		77	31-85	9-35	6-6		41	16

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

38-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-85

FG %

10-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-35

6-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

6-6

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 2-1

Nov 19

PHX127@

POR110

Feb 4

PHX130@

POR125

Feb 23

POR92@

PHX77today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR-16262%

PHX+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -3.5↗SpreadBet POR -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat PHX 92-77. D. Clingan led with 23 PTS, 13 REB, 3 AST. Royce O'Neale's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 30 REB · 13 AST

GS 57

Bench(7)

28 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 19

PHXstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 24 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

Bench(7)

38 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR2nd Quarter · 9:35 · 24-22

+15pp→ 53% WP

Kris Murray · makes 3-foot layup (Jrue Holiday assists)

PHX2nd Quarter · 59.0 · 42-38

+16pp→ 44% WP

Mark Williams · misses 1-foot tip shot

POR3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 47-40

+22pp→ 72% WP

Royce O'Neale · enters the game for Amir Coffey

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	20	27	24	21	92
PHX	20	20	17	20	77

Period scoring

POR won 3 · PHX won 0

Camara 7

Bouyea 6

Grant 10

Coffey 17

Grant 8

O'Neale 16

Clingan 5

Gillespie 14

POR

PHX

Shooting comparison

POR

PHX

47%

38-81

36%

31-85

27%

10-37

3PT

26%

9-35

55%

6-11

100%

6-6

Play-by-play · 439 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 92·PHX 77
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 92·PHX 77
Q4·0.1
Suns offensive team rebound
POR 92·PHX 77
Q4·0.1
Koby Brea misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 92·PHX 77
Q4·8.3
Khaman Maluach defensive goaltending violation
POR 92·PHX 77
Q4·8.3
Blake Wesley makes driving layup
POR 92·PHX 77
Q4·20.8
Ryan Dunn personal foul
POR 90·PHX 77
Q4·39.2
Koby Brea makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamaree Bouyea assists)
·
POR 90·PHX 77
Q4·49.3
Sidy Cissoko lost ball turnover (Ryan Dunn steals)
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:00
Matisse Thybulle offensive rebound
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:04
Blake Wesley misses 25-foot three point jumper
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:16
Ryan Dunn lost ball turnover (Sidy Cissoko steals)
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Matisse Thybulle enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Blake Wesley enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Kris Murray enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Vit Krejci enters the game for Scoot Henderson
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Jalen Green
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Koby Brea enters the game for Amir Coffey
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Suns Full timeout
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Jrue Holiday personal foul
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:37
Scoot Henderson bad pass turnover (Collin Gillespie steals)
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:54
Donovan Clingan defensive rebound
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·1:58
Ryan Dunn misses driving layup
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·2:17
Donovan Clingan makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)
·
POR 90·PHX 74
Q4·2:22
Jrue Holiday offensive rebound
POR 88·PHX 74
Q4·2:29
Scoot Henderson misses driving layup
POR 88·PHX 74
Q4·2:42
Royce O'Neale offensive foul turnover
POR 88·PHX 74

Betting line

POR -3.5·O/U 224.5·POR -162/PHX +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 92–77.

POR -3.5 cashed (won by 15). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 55.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

PHX

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

45.5%

114.6

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

25.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR