NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+22BOS

BOS

37-19

11189

LAL

34-22

NBASun, Feb 22FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-0VegasBOS -1.5

BOS · top performer

Payton Pritchard

G · #11

26.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

15.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	29	7	2-6	2-6	1-1	+5	6	2
N. QuetaC · #88	26	10	4-5	—	2-2	+5	12	1
D. WhiteG · #9	35	12	5-13	2-6	—	+18	5	8
J. BrownG · #7	36	32	10-28	3-9	9-12	+18	8	7
B. ScheiermanG · #55	29	5	2-6	1-4	—	+18	2	2
Bench
A. WilliamsF · #77	1	0	—	—	—	+2	1	0
N. VucevicC · #4	21	9	4-6	—	1-2	+15	8	0
L. GarzaC · #52	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
P. PritchardG · #11	38	30	10-14	6-9	4-4	+21	4	8
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	1	2	1-1	—	—	+2	0	0
J. WalshG · #27	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	1	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	14	4	2-3	0-1	—	+5	3	1
Team		111	40-83	14-36	17-21		50	29
DNP: D. Banton, J. Tonje

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	34	20	9-21	1-5	1-1	-14	4	5
D. AytonC · #5	25	4	2-6	—	—	-15	7	1
M. SmartG · #36	22	0	0-7	0-5	—	-4	1	4
L. DoncicG · #77	33	25	9-22	4-7	3-6	-21	5	3
A. ReavesG · #15	32	15	4-10	1-4	6-7	-14	7	2
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	3	0	—	—	0-2	0	0	1
R. HachimuraF · #28	21	5	2-7	1-4	—	-13	2	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	11	3	1-3	1-1	—	-1	5	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	24	4	2-2	—	—	-18	3	2
D. KnechtF · #4	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	1	0
J. HayesC · #11	5	2	1-2	—	—	-1	1	0
L. KennardG · #10	22	9	3-4	1-2	2-2	-9	3	0
K. BufkinG · #18	3	2	1-2	0-1	—	0	0	0
Team		89	34-87	9-30	12-18		39	18

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

40-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-87

FG %

14-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-30

17-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 2-0

Dec 6

LAL105@

BOS126

Feb 22

BOS111@

LAL89today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-11553%

LAL-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat LAL 111-89. P. Pritchard paced them with 30 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST. BOS outscored the other side 32-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 33 REB · 20 AST

GS 56

Bench(7)

45 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 38

LALstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 24 REB · 15 AST

GS 42

Bench(8)

25 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL2nd Quarter · 8:34 · 31-30

+7pp→ 41% WP

Derrick White · misses driving floating jump shot

BOS2nd Quarter · 7:51 · 34-33

+6pp→ 58% WP

Payton Pritchard · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot

LAL2nd Quarter · 4:55 · 40-39

+6pp→ 39% WP

Luka Doncic · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	28	32	24	27	111
LAL	28	22	21	18	89

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · LAL won 0

Vucevic 7

Doncic 8

Pritchard 11

Doncic 10

Brown 11

James 10

Pritchard 11

Reaves 4

BOS

LAL

Shooting comparison

BOS

LAL

48%

40-83

39%

34-87

39%

14-36

3PT

30%

9-30

81%

17-21

67%

12-18

Play-by-play · 466 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 111·LAL 89
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 111·LAL 89
Q4·21.6
Ron Harper Jr. makes two point shot (Hugo Gonzalez assists)
·
BOS 111·LAL 89
Q4·40.3
Celtics defensive team rebound
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·42.7
Dalton Knecht misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·49.9
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·52.6
Payton Pritchard misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
·
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:01
Amari Williams defensive rebound
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:05
Kobe Bufkin misses 27-foot running jump shot
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:10
Payton Pritchard bad pass turnover (Luke Kennard steals)
· ·
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:24
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:26
Maxi Kleber misses free throw 2 of 2
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:26
Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Sam Hauser
·
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:26
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:26
Luka Garza enters the game for Baylor Scheierman
·
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:26
Amari Williams enters the game for Derrick White
·
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:26
Lakers offensive team rebound
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:26
Maxi Kleber misses free throw 1 of 2
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:26
Payton Pritchard shooting foul
·
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:32
Luke Kennard defensive rebound
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:36
Neemias Queta misses 6-foot turnaround jump shot
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·1:54
Luke Kennard makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Maxi Kleber assists)
·
BOS 109·LAL 89
Q4·2:09
Neemias Queta makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Payton Pritchard assists)
· ·
BOS 109·LAL 87
Q4·2:36
Kobe Bufkin makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
BOS 107·LAL 87
Q4·2:45
Neemias Queta makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 107·LAL 85
Q4·2:45
Neemias Queta makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 106·LAL 85
Q4·2:45
Jake LaRavia shooting foul
BOS 105·LAL 85
Q4·3:08
Luke Kennard makes 11-foot turnaround jump shot (Jake LaRavia assists)
·
BOS 105·LAL 85
Q4·3:22
Sam Hauser enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
BOS 105·LAL 83
Q4·3:22
Luke Kennard enters the game for Austin Reaves
·
BOS 105·LAL 83

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 230.5·BOS -115/LAL -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Los Angeles Lakers and beat them, 111–89. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 22). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 30.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

LAL

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

114.2

PPG

114.9

114.8

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR