NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PHX

ORL

29-26

110113

PHX

33-24

NBASat, Feb 21FinalSeriesPHX leads series 1-0VegasPHX -3.5

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

28.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Grayson Allen

G · #8

18.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 49pp · 2OT · 0.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final/2OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	47	26	11-28	0-2	4-4	+10	14	8
T. da SilvaF · #23	38	5	2-10	1-6	—	+13	9	3
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	34	7	2-4	0-2	3-3	+19	11	1
D. BaneG · #3	40	34	12-18	5-9	5-5	-7	4	3
A. BlackG · #0	45	10	4-12	0-5	2-2	+8	4	4
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	12	7	2-4	1-2	2-3	-11	2	1
J. IsaacF · #1	8	2	1-1	—	0-2	-8	2	0
N. PendaF · #93	6	0	0-1	—	—	-10	1	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	9	4	2-2	—	—	-9	3	0
J. CarterG · #2	33	15	6-14	3-11	—	-9	2	2
J. HowardG · #13	19	0	0-4	0-2	—	-11	1	1
Team		110	42-98	10-39	16-19		53	24
DNP: J. Cain, J. Richardson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	46	6	2-10	2-9	—	-6	7	4
D. BrooksF · #3	7	5	2-7	1-3	—	-8	3	0
M. WilliamsC · #15	28	9	4-10	—	1-1	-8	9	1
C. GillespieG · #12	45	19	6-17	3-10	4-5	+8	5	6
J. GreenG · #4	37	16	6-26	2-11	2-6	0	7	5
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	15	0	0-4	0-1	—	-6	2	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	30	11	5-7	—	1-1	+11	12	1
R. DunnF · #0	22	3	1-4	1-3	0-2	+16	7	0
G. AllenG · #8	33	27	8-22	4-14	7-7	0	7	2
J. GoodwinG · #23	25	17	6-10	3-4	2-2	+6	6	1
J. BouyeaG · #17	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
Team		113	40-117	16-55	17-24		65	20
DNP: R. Fleming, K. Maluach, A. Coffey

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

42-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-117

FG %

10-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-55

16-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX leads series 1-0

Feb 21

ORL110@

PHX113today

Mar 31

PHX111@

ORL115

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+13642%

PHX-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -3.5↗SpreadBet PHX -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat ORL 113-110. G. Allen paced them with 27 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST. PHX outscored the other side 34-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 42 REB · 19 AST

GS 64

Bench(6)

28 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

GS 21

PHXstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST

GS 35

Bench(6)

58 PTS · 34 REB · 4 AST

GS 49

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX4th Quarter · 4.0 · 96-96

+34pp→ 89% WP

Desmond Bane · personal take foul

ORL2OT · 2.9 · 110-110

+34pp→ 48% WP

Jevon Carter · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)

PHX2OT · 0.0 · 110-113

+49pp→ 100% WP

Jalen Green · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	OT2	T
ORL	25	26	22	23	7	7	110
PHX	21	22	34	19	7	10	113

Period scoring

ORL won 3 · PHX won 2

Bane 14

Brooks 5

Carter 10

Allen 8

Wagner 6

Gillespie 11

Bane 7

Gillespie 5

Jr. 3

Allen 7

OT2

Carter 3

Green 7

ORL

PHX

Shooting comparison

ORL

PHX

43%

42-98

34%

40-117

26%

10-39

3PT

29%

16-55

84%

16-19

71%

17-24

Play-by-play · 579 plays

period

event

player

2OT·0.0
End of Game
ORL 110·PHX 113
2OT·0.0
End of the 2nd Overtime
ORL 110·PHX 113
2OT·0.0
(00:00) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
ORL 110·PHX 113
2OT·0.0
Jalen Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 110·PHX 113
+49pp
2OT·1.1
Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Jett Howard
·
ORL 110·PHX 110
2OT·1.1
Suns Full timeout
ORL 110·PHX 110
−1pp
2OT·2.9
Jevon Carter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 110·PHX 110
−34pp
2OT·5.7
Jett Howard enters the game for Jonathan Isaac
·
ORL 107·PHX 110
2OT·5.7
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Mark Williams
·
ORL 107·PHX 110
2OT·5.7
Magic Full timeout
ORL 107·PHX 110
−4pp
2OT·5.7
shot clock turnover
ORL 107·PHX 110
+4pp
2OT·28.9
Jalen Green enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
ORL 107·PHX 110
2OT·28.9
Suns Full timeout
ORL 107·PHX 110
2OT·28.9
Mark Williams defensive rebound
ORL 107·PHX 110
2OT·29.7
Jonathan Isaac misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ORL 107·PHX 110
+11pp
2OT·29.7
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jalen Green
·
ORL 107·PHX 110
2OT·29.7
Magic offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 107·PHX 110
+9pp
2OT·29.7
Jonathan Isaac misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
ORL 107·PHX 110
+9pp
2OT·29.7
Collin Gillespie shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 107·PHX 110
−23pp
2OT·33.9
Magic Full timeout
ORL 107·PHX 110
2OT·33.9
Jalen Green makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 107·PHX 110
+14pp
2OT·53.9
Jonathan Isaac makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 107·PHX 108
−11pp
2OT·54.5
Jonathan Isaac offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·PHX 108
−7pp
2OT·55.5
Paolo Banchero misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·PHX 108
+7pp
2OT·1:02
Tristan da Silva defensive rebound
ORL 105·PHX 108
−2pp
2OT·1:05
Collin Gillespie misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·PHX 108
−5pp
2OT·1:23
Grayson Allen defensive rebound
ORL 105·PHX 108
+2pp
2OT·1:26
Tristan da Silva misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·PHX 108
+6pp
2OT·1:28
Magic offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·PHX 108
−6pp
2OT·1:29
Paolo Banchero misses 10-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 105·PHX 108
+6pp

Betting line

PHX -3.5·O/U 218.5·ORL +136/PHX -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Orlando Magic, 113–110 in overtime. Decided by 3.

ORL +3.5 cashed (PHX won by 3). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

PHX

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

45.5%

114.2

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

26.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR