NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3LAL

LAC

27-29

122125

LAL

34-21

NBAFri, Feb 20FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasLAL -7.5

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

34.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 6:54

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	31	31	11-19	4-6	5-5	+4	4	5
J. CollinsF · #20	16	12	5-8	1-2	1-2	-2	1	0
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	39	13	6-10	1-3	0-1	+1	8	2
B. LopezC · #11	35	16	7-12	1-3	1-1	0	10	1
K. DunnG · #8	35	8	4-4	—	—	-2	5	8
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	15	0	0-2	0-2	—	-9	3	2
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	13	6	2-3	—	2-2	-3	3	1
J. MillerG · #22	25	10	3-8	0-1	4-4	-2	1	4
B. MathurinG · #9	32	26	7-16	1-4	11-14	-2	7	2
Team		122	45-82	8-21	24-29		42	25
DNP: I. Jackson, B. Bogdanovic, K. Sanders, C. Christie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	13	5-13	1-3	2-2	-7	3	11
D. AytonC · #5	28	13	5-10	—	3-3	-2	7	1
M. SmartG · #36	29	7	3-4	1-2	0-2	+1	2	0
L. DoncicG · #77	38	38	11-25	8-14	8-11	+6	6	11
A. ReavesG · #15	33	29	9-15	4-5	7-7	0	6	2
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	26	3	1-4	1-3	—	+9	2	2
J. VanderbiltF · #2	10	2	1-2	—	—	+4	0	2
J. LaRaviaF · #12	14	3	1-1	1-1	—	+1	1	1
J. HayesC · #11	11	8	4-5	—	—	+1	3	0
L. KennardG · #10	18	9	4-6	1-3	—	+2	2	1
Team		125	44-85	17-31	20-25		32	31
DNP: M. Kleber, D. Knecht, K. Bufkin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

45-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-85

FG %

8-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-31

24-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 26

LAC118@

LAL135

Dec 21

LAL88@

LAC103

Jan 23

LAL104@

LAC112

Feb 21

LAC122@

LAL125today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC+21032%

LAL-25872%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -7.5↗SpreadBet LAL -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat LAC 125-122. L. Doncic led the way with 38 points and 11 assists. LAL outscored the other side 41-30 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 28 REB · 16 AST

GS 72

Bench(4)

42 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST

GS 30

LALstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

100 PTS · 24 REB · 25 AST

GS 85

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC4th Quarter · 6:54 · 106-104

+24pp→ 59% WP

Brook Lopez · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)

LAL4th Quarter · 1:30 · 115-120

+14pp→ 87% WP

Luka Doncic · makes 3-foot pullup jump shot

LAC4th Quarter · 46.2 · 120-123

+17pp→ 32% WP

Deandre Ayton · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	30	35	30	27	122
LAL	41	31	27	26	125

Period scoring

LAC won 3 · LAL won 1

Lopez 9

Doncic 17

Leonard 19

Reaves 7

Mathurin 9

Reaves 12

Jr. 5

Doncic 12

LAC

LAL

Shooting comparison

LAC

LAL

55%

45-82

52%

44-85

38%

8-21

3PT

55%

17-31

83%

24-29

80%

20-25

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 122·LAL 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 122·LAL 125
+3pp
Q4·3.7
LeBron James defensive rebound
LAC 122·LAL 125
+3pp
Q4·6.2
Nicolas Batum misses 27-foot running jump shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 122·LAL 125
+8pp
Q4·8.8
LeBron James bad pass turnover (Nicolas Batum steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 122·LAL 125
−7pp
Q4·9.7
Luke Kennard enters the game for Deandre Ayton
·
LAC 122·LAL 125
Q4·9.7
Lakers Full timeout
LAC 122·LAL 125
Q4·9.7
Jordan Miller makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 122·LAL 125
+7pp
Q4·9.7
Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 121·LAL 125
−2pp
Q4·9.7
Deandre Ayton shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 120·LAL 125
−6pp
Q4·21.2
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 120·LAL 125
−3pp
Q4·21.2
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 120·LAL 124
+0.8pp
Q4·21.2
Kris Dunn shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 120·LAL 123
+9pp
Q4·43.1
Austin Reaves defensive rebound
LAC 120·LAL 123
Q4·46.2
Derrick Jones Jr. misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
LAC 120·LAL 123
+17pp
Q4·46.2
Deandre Ayton shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 120·LAL 123
−17pp
Q4·46.2
Derrick Jones Jr. makes two point shot
LAC 120·LAL 123
−4pp
Q4·46.2
Derrick Jones Jr. offensive rebound
LAC 118·LAL 123
−3pp
Q4·47.4
Jordan Miller misses driving layup
LAC 118·LAL 123
+5pp
Q4·57.6
Brook Lopez defensive rebound
LAC 118·LAL 123
Q4·59.1
Marcus Smart misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
LAC 118·LAL 123
−7pp
Q4·59.1
Jordan Miller shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 118·LAL 123
+7pp
Q4·59.1
Marcus Smart makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Luka Doncic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 118·LAL 123
+6pp
Q4·1:20
Derrick Jones Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 118·LAL 121
−9pp
Q4·1:30
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 1
LAC 115·LAL 121
−3pp
Q4·1:30
Kris Dunn shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 115·LAL 120
+8pp
Q4·1:30
Luka Doncic makes 3-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 115·LAL 120
+14pp
Q4·1:49
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin
·
LAC 115·LAL 118
Q4·1:49
(01:49) [Clippers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Clippers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
LAC 115·LAL 118
−8pp
Q4·1:49
Clippers Full timeout
LAC 115·LAL 118

Betting line

LAL -7.5·O/U 228.5·LAC +210/LAL -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off LA Clippers, 125–122. Decided by 3.

LAC +7.5 cashed (LAL won by 3). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · C
TS%69.198

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

LAL

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

48.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

113.9

PPG

114.9

114.8

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR