NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19OKC

BKN

15-40

86105

OKC

43-14

NBAFri, Feb 20FinalSeriesOKC leads series 1-0VegasOKC -16.5

BKN · top performer

Michael Porter Jr.

F · #17

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Jared McCain

G · #3

16.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ OKC

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	38	22	6-16	1-9	9-11	-3	9	5
N. ClowneyF · #21	27	8	3-9	1-6	1-1	-8	5	1
D. SharpeC · #20	27	12	6-8	—	0-2	-12	8	2
E. DeminG · #8	28	3	1-10	1-8	—	-11	5	3
N. TraoreG · #88	27	17	5-11	1-4	6-6	-6	1	3
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	16	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	-13	2	0
D. WolfF · #2	23	8	4-12	0-5	—	-13	3	2
T. MannG · #14	24	3	1-3	1-3	—	-15	4	2
O. AgbajiG · #30	11	4	1-6	1-3	1-2	-10	1	0
D. PowellG · #4	20	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	-4	2	1
Team		86	29-79	7-41	21-26		40	19
DNP: Z. Williams, N. Claxton

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	24	10	4-6	—	2-4	+5	8	4
C. HolmgrenC · #7	26	15	3-6	2-2	7-7	+14	7	2
L. DortG · #5	29	10	3-9	2-6	2-2	-2	2	2
A. WigginsG · #21	28	7	3-11	1-4	—	+12	4	0
C. WallaceG · #22	30	8	4-13	0-5	—	+16	4	6
Bench
B. BoeheimF · #14	2	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	18	7	2-4	1-2	2-2	+4	4	2
B. BarnhizerF · #23	2	0	—	—	—	+3	2	0
A. CarusoG · #9	11	0	0-5	0-3	—	+12	0	3
K. WilliamsG · #34	15	7	2-5	1-2	2-2	0	2	0
I. JoeG · #11	22	11	3-6	2-3	3-4	+10	7	1
J. McCainG · #3	23	21	7-12	3-6	4-4	+6	4	0
N. TopicG · #44	11	9	4-6	1-2	—	+12	3	2
Team		105	35-83	13-35	22-25		47	22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

29-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-83

FG %

7-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-35

21-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC leads series 1-0

Feb 21

BKN86@

OKC105today

Mar 18

OKC121@

BKN92

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

215.5

Defensive · -10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+75012%

OKC-120092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -16.5↗SpreadBet OKC -16.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

215.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat BKN 105-86. J. McCain led with 21 PTS, 4 REB, 0 AST. OKC outscored the other side 29-10 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 28 REB · 14 AST

GS 47

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 9

OKCstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 25 REB · 14 AST

GS 40

Bench(8)

55 PTS · 22 REB · 8 AST

GS 44

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	23	10	34	19	86
OKC	21	29	27	28	105

Period scoring

BKN won 2 · OKC won 2

Traore 6

Holmgren 7

Demin 3

Joe 10

Jr. 9

McCain 9

Jr. 5

McCain 10

BKN

OKC

Shooting comparison

BKN

OKC

37%

29-79

42%

35-83

17%

7-41

3PT

37%

13-35

81%

21-26

88%

22-25

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 86·OKC 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 86·OKC 105
Q4·15.4
Thunder defensive team rebound
BKN 86·OKC 105
Q4·18.1
Drake Powell misses 25-foot three point jumper
BKN 86·OKC 105
Q4·34.1
Jared McCain makes 26-foot three pointer (Nikola Topic assists)
·
BKN 86·OKC 105
Q4·48.2
Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 86·OKC 102
Q4·48.2
Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 85·OKC 102
Q4·48.2
Buddy Boeheim shooting foul
BKN 84·OKC 102
Q4·50.1
Jared McCain bad pass turnover (Jalen Wilson steals)
·
BKN 84·OKC 102
Q4·1:08
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
BKN 84·OKC 102
Q4·1:12
Jalen Wilson misses 23-foot three point jumper
BKN 84·OKC 102
Q4·1:24
Kenrich Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
· ·
BKN 84·OKC 102
Q4·1:24
Drake Powell enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.
·
BKN 84·OKC 101
Q4·1:24
Kenrich Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
· ·
BKN 84·OKC 101
Q4·1:24
Egor Demin shooting foul
BKN 84·OKC 100
Q4·1:29
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
BKN 84·OKC 100
Q4·1:31
Nolan Traore misses driving layup
BKN 84·OKC 100
Q4·1:48
Jalen Wilson defensive rebound
BKN 84·OKC 100
Q4·1:50
Egor Demin blocks Nikola Topic 's 5-foot driving layup
·
BKN 84·OKC 100
Q4·2:03
Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 84·OKC 100
Q4·2:03
Danny Wolf enters the game for Noah Clowney
·
BKN 83·OKC 100
Q4·2:03
Jalen Wilson enters the game for Day'Ron Sharpe
·
BKN 83·OKC 100
Q4·2:03
Nikola Topic enters the game for Aaron Wiggins
·
BKN 83·OKC 100
Q4·2:03
Buddy Boeheim enters the game for Jaylin Williams
· ·
BKN 83·OKC 100
Q4·2:03
Brooks Barnhizer enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
BKN 83·OKC 100
Q4·2:03
Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 83·OKC 100
Q4·2:03
Luguentz Dort shooting foul
BKN 82·OKC 100
Q4·2:23
Jared McCain makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
BKN 82·OKC 100
Q4·2:37
Jared McCain defensive rebound
BKN 82·OKC 98
Q4·2:41
Egor Demin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
BKN 82·OKC 98

Betting line

OKC -16.5·O/U 215.5·BKN +750/OKC -1200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Brooklyn Nets, 105–86.

OKC -16.5 cashed (won by 19). Total stayed UNDER 215.5 by 24.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Day'Ron SharpeBKN · C
TS%63.890
Isaiah HartensteinOKC · C
DEFL2.789

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs BKN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Julius RandleBKN
17.3± 6.4high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Jalen WilliamsOKC
4.8± 2.9high
Ajay MitchellOKC
4.2± 2.6high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
Trevon ScottBKN
0.8± 1.3low

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

OKC

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.2%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

118.5

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR