NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11MIN

DAL

19-36

111122

MIN

35-22

NBAFri, Feb 20FinalSeriesMIN leads series 3-0VegasMIN -13.5

DAL · top performer

Marvin Bagley III

F · #35

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Rudy Gobert

C · #27

26.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 7:49

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	30	18	6-14	1-3	5-6	-7	6	2
D. GaffordF · #21	24	8	4-7	—	—	-6	5	1
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	36	12	5-17	2-5	0-2	+3	12	2
N. MarshallF · #13	33	15	5-16	0-4	5-7	+1	5	3
T. JonesG · #1	26	13	6-10	1-1	—	+11	1	6
Bench
C. MartinF · #16	15	4	1-2	—	2-2	-16	2	1
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	24	15	5-9	1-2	4-4	-5	13	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	28	11	4-12	3-9	—	-23	0	2
B. WilliamsG · #10	18	13	4-8	0-1	5-8	-15	1	4
A. JohnsonG · #8	5	2	1-2	—	—	+2	0	0
Team		111	41-97	8-25	21-29		45	21
DNP: D. Powell, M. Kelly

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	29	13	4-15	1-4	4-4	+8	5	3
J. McDanielsF · #3	34	7	3-11	1-4	0-1	+1	8	5
R. GobertC · #27	32	22	9-11	0-1	4-8	+6	17	1
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	31	9	3-5	3-5	—	+19	5	9
A. EdwardsG · #5	38	40	16-30	5-13	3-4	+17	6	1
Bench
J. BeringerF · #19	4	2	1-1	—	—	-4	0	0
N. ReidC · #11	30	21	8-14	4-8	1-2	+12	7	4
A. DosunmuG · #13	27	5	2-9	1-5	—	+2	2	3
B. HylandG · #8	15	3	1-3	1-2	—	-6	4	2
Team		122	47-99	16-42	12-19		54	28
DNP: J. Ingles, E. Freeman, J. Phillips, M. Conley, J. Clark, T. Shannon Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

41-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-99

FG %

8-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-42

21-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 3-0

Nov 18

DAL96@

MIN120

Jan 29

MIN118@

DAL105

Feb 21

DAL111@

MIN122today

Mar 31

MIN124@

DAL94

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+50017%

MIN-70088%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -13.5↗SpreadBet MIN -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat DAL 122-111. R. Gobert led with 22 PTS, 17 REB, 1 AST. MIN outscored the other side 40-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

45 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 35

MINstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 41 REB · 19 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL1st Quarter · 8:35 · 8-10

+11pp→ 25% WP

Jaden McDaniels · lost ball turnover (Daniel Gafford steals)

DAL4th Quarter · 7:42 · 101-103

+12pp→ 27% WP

Klay Thompson · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)

DAL4th Quarter · 7:49 · 98-103

+20pp→ 20% WP

Julius Randle · lost ball turnover (Khris Middleton steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	25	32	31	23	111
MIN	40	29	27	26	122

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · MIN won 2

Williams 6

Dosunmu 17

III 8

Edwards 17

Marshall 8

DiVincenzo 12

Thompson 8

Edwards 14

DAL

MIN

Shooting comparison

DAL

MIN

42%

41-97

47%

47-99

32%

8-25

3PT

38%

16-42

72%

21-29

63%

12-19

Play-by-play · 518 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 111·MIN 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 111·MIN 122
Q4·1.8
Jaden McDaniels lost ball turnover (Klay Thompson steals)
·
DAL 111·MIN 122
Q4·8.6
Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
DAL 111·MIN 122
Q4·11.4
Naji Marshall misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 111·MIN 122
Q4·17.9
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
DAL 111·MIN 122
Q4·21.0
Rudy Gobert misses 25-foot jump bank shot
DAL 111·MIN 122
Q4·38.8
Daniel Gafford makes dunk (Klay Thompson assists)
·
DAL 111·MIN 122
Q4·42.0
Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot running dunk (Naz Reid assists)
·
DAL 109·MIN 122
Q4·44.6
Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound
DAL 109·MIN 120
Q4·47.6
Naz Reid blocks Klay Thompson 's 24-foot three point jumper
·
DAL 109·MIN 120
Q4·52.8
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 109·MIN 120
Q4·53.4
Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)
·
DAL 109·MIN 120
+0.7pp
Q4·55.6
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
DAL 109·MIN 117
+1pp
Q4·57.4
Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 109·MIN 117
−0.8pp
Q4·1:04
Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
DAL 109·MIN 117
Q4·1:05
Naji Marshall misses driving layup
DAL 109·MIN 117
+1pp
Q4·1:18
Anthony Edwards makes 11-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 109·MIN 117
+3pp
Q4·1:35
Klay Thompson offensive foul turnover
DAL 109·MIN 115
Q4·1:35
Klay Thompson offensive foul
DAL 109·MIN 115
+3pp
Q4·1:43
P.J. Washington offensive rebound
DAL 109·MIN 115
−2pp
Q4·1:44
Naz Reid blocks P.J. Washington 's 4-foot running layup
·
DAL 109·MIN 115
+3pp
Q4·1:48
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
DAL 109·MIN 115
−0.7pp
Q4·1:52
Jaden McDaniels misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 109·MIN 115
−2pp
Q4·2:14
Khris Middleton makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 109·MIN 115
+2pp
Q4·2:14
Khris Middleton makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 108·MIN 115
−0.7pp
Q4·2:14
Jaden McDaniels shooting foul
DAL 107·MIN 115
−4pp
Q4·2:27
Anthony Edwards makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot
DAL 107·MIN 115
+2pp
Q4·2:37
Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
DAL 107·MIN 113
+0.8pp
Q4·2:40
Rudy Gobert blocks Daniel Gafford 's 3-foot layup
·
DAL 107·MIN 113
−0.5pp

Betting line

MIN -13.5·O/U 239.5·DAL +500/MIN -700

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off Dallas Mavericks, 122–111.

DAL +13.5 cashed (MIN won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 239.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Marvin Bagley IIIDAL · F
TS%66.193

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

MIN

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.6%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

116.8

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR