NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CLE

CLE

36-21

118113

CHA

26-31

NBAFri, Feb 20FinalSeriesCLE wins series 3-1VegasCLE -5.5

CLE · top performer

Jarrett Allen

C · #31

27.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Kon Knueppel

G · #7

26.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 5:48

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	26	8	3-3	2-2	—	-16	4	0
J. AllenC · #31	32	26	11-15	—	4-5	-2	14	2
J. HardenG · #1	34	18	6-14	2-3	4-4	+3	4	8
D. MitchellG · #45	34	32	9-22	2-7	12-13	-4	3	4
S. MerrillG · #5	24	10	4-6	2-4	—	-14	2	2
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	13	5	1-3	1-2	2-2	+4	2	1
T. BryantC · #3	16	2	1-4	—	—	+5	5	1
D. SchroderG · #8	20	8	2-4	0-1	4-4	+16	0	3
J. TysonG · #20	17	5	2-4	1-2	—	+14	1	0
K. EllisG · #14	24	4	2-2	—	—	+19	4	3
Team		118	41-77	10-21	26-28		39	24
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Enaruna, D. Brown, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. MillerF · #24	23	18	6-19	4-12	2-2	+1	2	4
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	36	12	5-7	—	2-2	+12	13	1
L. BallG · #1	27	18	4-17	2-10	8-8	+6	2	6
S. JamesG · #4	30	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	+5	6	7
K. KnueppelG · #7	37	33	11-20	7-15	4-5	+2	6	2
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	0	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
T. SalaunF · #31	17	3	1-7	1-6	—	-15	4	0
P. HallC · #16	12	2	1-3	—	—	-13	4	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	20	5	2-3	1-2	—	-5	5	1
J. GreenG · #10	20	11	3-7	2-6	3-3	-4	2	2
T. MannG · #23	13	3	1-4	1-1	—	-9	1	2
A. ReevesG · #12	6	3	1-3	1-2	—	-3	0	0
Team		113	36-92	20-56	21-22		45	26
DNP: M. Bridges, M. Diabate

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

41-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-92

FG %

10-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-56

26-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE wins series 3-1

Dec 14

CHA119@

CLE111

Dec 23

CHA132@

CLE139

Jan 22

CLE94@

CHA87

Feb 21

CLE118@

CHA113today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-21869%

CHA+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -5.5↗SpreadBet CLE -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat CHA 118-113. J. Allen paced them with 26 PTS, 14 REB, 2 AST. CLE outscored the other side 30-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 80

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST

GS 24

CHAstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 74

Bench(7)

27 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA4th Quarter · 6:33 · 100-98

+10pp→ 32% WP

Brandon Miller · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)

CHA4th Quarter · 5:48 · 102-100

+13pp→ 44% WP

James Harden · shooting foul

CLE4th Quarter · 4:43 · 107-101

+10pp→ 84% WP

Dean Wade · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	30	29	31	28	118
CHA	20	33	36	24	113

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · CHA won 2

Allen 11

Miller 6

Mitchell 7

Knueppel 15

Allen 9

Ball 10

Mitchell 13

Miller 12

CLE

CHA

Shooting comparison

CLE

CHA

53%

41-77

39%

36-92

48%

10-21

3PT

36%

20-56

93%

26-28

95%

21-22

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 118·CHA 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 118·CHA 113
−1pp
Q4·9.6
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
CLE 118·CHA 113
−1pp
Q4·11.8
LaMelo Ball misses 22-foot three point jumper
CLE 118·CHA 113
−3pp
Q4·15.3
LaMelo Ball enters the game for PJ Hall
·
CLE 118·CHA 113
Q4·15.3
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner
·
CLE 118·CHA 113
Q4·15.3
Hornets Full timeout
CLE 118·CHA 113
Q4·15.3
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 118·CHA 113
+3pp
Q4·15.3
PJ Hall enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CLE 117·CHA 113
Q4·15.3
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 117·CHA 113
−0.7pp
Q4·15.3
Kon Knueppel personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 116·CHA 113
−6pp
Q4·16.7
Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three pointer (LaMelo Ball assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 116·CHA 113
+6pp
Q4·23.2
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 116·CHA 110
+2pp
Q4·23.2
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Tidjane Salaun
·
CLE 115·CHA 110
Q4·23.2
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 115·CHA 110
−0.6pp
Q4·23.2
LaMelo Ball personal take foul
CLE 114·CHA 110
Q4·26.6
Tidjane Salaun enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner
·
CLE 114·CHA 110
Q4·26.6
Kon Knueppel personal foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·CHA 110
−7pp
Q4·30.4
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes dunk
CLE 114·CHA 110
+5pp
Q4·30.4
Ryan Kalkbrenner offensive rebound
CLE 114·CHA 108
+2pp
Q4·31.7
Brandon Miller misses driving layup
CLE 114·CHA 108
−3pp
Q4·41.8
Donovan Mitchell makes 15-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·CHA 108
−6pp
Q4·58.0
Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 1
CLE 112·CHA 108
−5pp
Q4·58.0
James Harden shooting foulBIG MOMENT
·
CLE 112·CHA 107
+10pp
Q4·58.0
Brandon Miller makes 2-foot layup (LaMelo Ball assists)
·
CLE 112·CHA 107
+2pp
Q4·1:09
James Harden out of bounds bad pass turnover
·
CLE 112·CHA 105
+2pp
Q4·1:28
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 112·CHA 105
−2pp
Q4·1:28
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 112·CHA 104
+0.5pp
Q4·1:28
Donovan Mitchell shooting foul
CLE 112·CHA 103
+2pp
Q4·1:38
Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)
·
CLE 112·CHA 103
−4pp

Betting line

CLE -5.5·O/U 229.5·CLE -218/CHA +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 118–113. Decided by 5.

CHA +5.5 cashed (CLE won by 5). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
James HardenCLE · G
DRIVES12.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

CHA

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.0%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

115.8

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR