Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL+8HOU

HOU

10-10-3

102

PIT

15-9

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

5,960 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium
Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.5± 3.1medium
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

PIT

.725

OPS

.718

▶

.757

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.49

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.18

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.17

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 10 · PIT 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	1	0	3	0	4	0	0	2	0	10
PIT	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LoperfidoLF	.355	1	3	1	0	0	2	0
B. MatthewsCF	.226	3	2	1	2	1	2	1
Z. ColeLF	.188	3	2	1	1	1	2	2
S. Whitcomb3B	.308	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
C. Biggio1B	.200	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
C. VazquezC	.333	3	1	1	1	0	2	1
C. PriceC	.182	4	1	0	0	0	1	3
J. Biggers2B	.095	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Unroe2B	.292	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. Winkler2B	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. WhitakerRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. Encarnacion2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	10	8	10	2	10	16

Player

.355

.226

.188

.308

.250

.200

.333

.182

.095

.292

.273

.000

.133

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. McCullers Jr.SP	4.0	3	1	1	3	1	58
R. MunozRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	19
C. RoaRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	22
L. VanWeyRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	2	36
Team	9.0	6	2	2	4	6	135

Player

4.0

1.1

1.2

2.0

Team

9.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.500	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. O'HearnRF	.370	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.267	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.281	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.136	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Gonzales3B	.409	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.120	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BartC	.138	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. WilliamsSS	.259	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MangumLF	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. GarciaRF	.455	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. CookRF	.258	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. BrethowrRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. AlfonzoC	.286	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Jared R. Jones1B	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. JarvisSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Stovall2B	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Castillo3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	2	6	2	0	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	4.0	4	6	6	4	6	85
C. NielsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. MurdockSP	0.2	3	2	2	1	2	24
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
D. MatomaRP	1.2	1	2	2	3	4	36
B. NeeckRP	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	20
Team	9.0	8	10	10	10	16	179

Team

HOU

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs HOU.