Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 16, 2026

FINAL+1TEX

CHW

13-11-1

TEX

14-10

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

6,076 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.2± 2.5high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.7low
Jake BurgerTEX
0.9± 1.1high
Jacob GonzalezCHW
0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackTEX
3.1± 2.4low
Jacob deGromTEX
2.6± 2.9medium
Sean BurkeCHW
2.5± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

TEX

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.712

.323

OBP

.319

.320

4.82

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.07

4.22

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.95

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

CHW 2 · TEX 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
TEX	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.211	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. PereiraRF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. KelenicRF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Sosa2B	.278	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Wade Jr.1B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Mead3B	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. LeeC	.303	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
T. PetersCF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. HillRF	.314	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Dru BakerCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Da. Baker2B	.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HarrisLF	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Camilletti2B	.214	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. Dunn3B	.308	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
W. Bergolla Jr.2B	.313	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Galanie1B	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	4	2	1	3	10

Player

.211

.143

.200

.278

.250

.227

.303

.222

.314

.250

.429

.500

.214

.308

.313

.182

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BurkeSP	4.2	3	1	1	3	4	78
B. PeoplesRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
J. LeasureRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20
G. TaylorRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	23
Team	8.0	6	3	3	6	6	141

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

141

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.350	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. LangfordLF	.483	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
C. SeagerSS	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.297	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Smith2B	.382	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. Jung3B	.375	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. HigashiokaC	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JansenC	.222	4	0	2	3	0	0	1
E. DuranSS	.297	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Lee SangCF	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. MendezRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RodriguezSS	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Perich3B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FlamesSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.320	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. JohnsonC	.133	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. BatistaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Chavez2B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	6	3	0	6	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	4.1	2	0	0	3	3	76
J. HejkaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
A. RobertsRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
R. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
J. SborzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
R. BrasierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
P. GrayRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	15
Team	9.0	4	2	2	3	10	137

Team

CHW

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs CHW.