New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 12, 2026

FINAL+1NYY

NYY

13-6

DET

4-10-4

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

7,331 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.9± 3.1medium

Hits

Kevin McGonigleDET
1.1± 0.7high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.1high
Hao-Yu LeeDET
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.0± 2.2high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.8± 2.6high
Spencer TorkelsonDET
1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 0.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.6± 1.4high
Amed RosarioNYY
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
2.4± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

DET

.746

OPS

◀

.718

.714

.321

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.86

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.15

3.35

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.78

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.23

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 4 · DET 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4
DET	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Rice1B	.280	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. DominguezRF	.333	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
J.C. EscarraC	.217	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
P. DeJong3B	.174	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. JonesCF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. SchuemannSS	.353	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. BrownLF	.217	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
G. Lombard Jr.SS	.185	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. FernandezRF	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ShewmakeSS	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. LucianoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JacksonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. PalmaC	.167	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. KentSS	.429	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. TorresOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MoralesLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AvinaLF	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MoylanUN	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Team		32	4	5	4	3	4	13

Player

.280

.333

.217

.174

.333

.353

.217

.185

.167

.125

.000

.000

.167

.429

.000

.000

.286

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	6.0	2	2	2	0	2	64
C. WinquestRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
A. ChivilliRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	14
B. HannerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	9.0	4	3	3	0	5	101

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

101

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CarpenterRF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. VierlingCF	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.238	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.231	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.294	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. BaezSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CruzCF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PeckSS	.318	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. LeeC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JulksLF	.368	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. DobbinsC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Gil2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Jenkins1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. CamposOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
MacdonaldUN	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. CallahanLF	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Anderson2B	.259	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. WarwickSS	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		29	3	4	3	1	0	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. VerlanderSP	3.1	4	3	3	2	5	61
B. HurterRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	20
K. JansenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
K. FinneganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18
B. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. SimonRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	2	24
L. BerrierP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	12
Team	9.0	5	4	4	4	13	158

Team

NYY

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs NYY.