New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL+1NYM

NYM

6-5-1

STL

8-5

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

5,612 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.8± 2.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.8± 1.4high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

STL

.673

OPS

.718

▶

.717

.299

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.47

4.10

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.26

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 3 · STL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	3
STL	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. TauchmanRF	.364	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Polanco1B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. BichetteSS	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Baty3B	.375	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. TorrensC	.308	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. MauricioSS	.222	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Rojas3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PacheOF	.533	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CluffSS	.143	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. BaeCF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. ParadaC	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Reimer3B	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Collins1B	.000	0	2	0	0	0	1	0
J. BayRF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. YoungSS	.333	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. JuanRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RortvedtC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Voit2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		33	3	6	2	0	4	10

Player

.364

.250

.267

.375

.308

.222

.000

.533

.143

.167

.125

.100

.000

.500

.333

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SengaSP	2.2	3	2	2	0	2	50
J. YanRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	6
L. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
L. WeaverRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
B. RaleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
J. WenningerSP	3.0	3	0	0	0	5	52
Team	9.0	8	2	2	0	9	137

Player

2.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

3.0

Team

9.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WinnSS	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.357	3	0	3	0	0	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.150	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Wetherholt2B	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. PagesC	.083	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jo. BáezRF	.333	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.118	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DavisCF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. UguetoLF	.250	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.375	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Gurevitch1B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Ortiz3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. PadillaSS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. YerzyC	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. PinoCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MitchellSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. LedbetterCF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. PetrutzOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	2	8	2	2	0	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	4.0	0	0	0	0	5	47
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	21
B. MautzRP	2.0	3	2	1	2	2	57
A. LoveSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
D. SaladinSP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	23
J. DavilaP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
N. RaquetRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	6	3	2	4	10	168

Team

NYM

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs NYM.