Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL+2PIT

PIT

10-5

DET

3-7-3

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

6,937 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.8high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.5high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.3± 3.6high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.1± 2.2high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 2.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.4high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

DET

.757

OPS

◀

.718

.709

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.315

5.18

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.17

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 5 · DET 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	5
DET	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. CallihanLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. GriffinSS	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
H. DavisC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
En. Valdez1B	.095	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. GarciaRF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
D. FletcherRF	.286	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. ValdezRF	.294	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
T. Johnson2B	.389	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
E. Gourson2B	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. BergC	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. PolancoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Delgado2B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
W. TaylorCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. JebbLF	.286	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. Cimillo1B	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. De Los SantosSS	.556	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. RossC	.444	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RivasSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	5	9	3	0	4	8

Player

.000

.200

.000

.095

.500

.286

.294

.389

.267

.333

.000

.000

.000

.286

.188

.556

.444

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BarcoRP	3.0	3	3	3	1	3	57
M. WalshRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
T. HarringtonSP	4.0	2	0	0	1	2	44
Team	9.0	6	3	3	2	8	130

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

4.0

Team

9.0

130

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SlaterRF	.313	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.067	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.083	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BaezSS	.364	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.188	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. RogersC	.313	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.308	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
P. MeadowsCF	.053	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. LeeOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ClarkCF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CruzCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.368	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. ValenciaC	.375	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.353	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PeckSS	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JulksLF	.462	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Anderson2B	.238	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	6	3	0	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. MizeSP	3.1	4	3	2	1	1	59
Y. SanchezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
T. HoltonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	13
S. EffrossRP	1.0	2	1	1	3	0	24
B. SmithRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
B. HanifeeRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	18
R. VanascoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
Team	9.0	9	5	4	4	8	140

Team

PIT

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs PIT.