New York Mets vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+3WSH

NYM

5-4-1

WSH

6-3-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

4,106 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.8± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

WSH

.673

OPS

.718

▶

.739

.299

OBP

.319

▶

.318

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.26

4.10

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.71

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

NYM 4 · WSH 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4
WSH	0	2	0	1	0	4	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. TauchmanRF	.375	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Polanco1B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. BichetteSS	.333	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.200	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
R. MauricioSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Rojas3B	.000	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
C. PacheOF	.615	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. CluffSS	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RortvedtC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Clifford1B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
J. Reimer3B	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Collins1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BaeCF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
K. ParadaC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. RudickLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MosqueraLF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. VillavicencioSS	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. VargasSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	5	4	1	10	8

Player

.375

.500

.333

.200

.250

.000

.615

.154

.000

.000

.111

.000

.200

.167

.333

.167

.167

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HagenmanRP	3.0	3	2	2	0	4	43
A. WarrenRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	19
M. TurnerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
A. SeverinoRP	0.2	4	4	4	1	1	26
A. RozekRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	5
T. WittRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
O. GómezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
Team	8.0	12	7	7	2	8	126

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WiemerRF	.067	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. KingSS	.385	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.300	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. TenaDH	.100	1	3	1	2	1	2	0
R. Hassell IIICF	.357	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. FranklinLF	.308	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
T. Lipscomb3B	.357	3	1	1	2	0	0	1
C. LomavitaC	.222	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. CabreraCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. AlcantaraSS	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. BarreraC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Ortiz1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. Martinez2B	.444	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. PinckneyLF	.077	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. NunezLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MotaSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Mervis1B	.333	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
Team		34	7	12	7	1	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MikolasSP	3.0	3	3	3	1	3	57
L. PeralesSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	24
A. GranilloRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	18
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
J. RutledgeRP	0.2	0	1	1	3	2	31
O. PukRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	11
G. McGarrySP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
G. VarlandRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	24
Team	9.0	5	4	4	10	8	194

Team

NYM

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs NYM.