St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+1STL

STL

7-4

PIT

9-3

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

5,380 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.8high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.5high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.3± 3.6high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.7high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.0± 2.9medium

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 2.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.4high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

PIT

.717

OPS

.718

▶

.757

.324

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.47

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.18

4.26

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.17

1.35

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 3 · PIT 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	3
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WinnSS	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Wetherholt2B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
A. Burleson1B	.182	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Gorman3B	.176	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Urias3B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
J. FerminLF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. PagesC	.100	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
V. Scott IICF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. CamposC	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. RivasSS	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Mendoza2B	.357	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Jo. BáezRF	.286	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. Moore2B	.133	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DavisCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.444	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. PeeteOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	3	6	3	1	6	10

Player

.200

.333

.182

.176

.250

.000

.235

.100

.143

.333

.273

.000

.357

.286

.133

.250

.444

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MaySP	3.0	1	0	0	1	1	42
Q. MathewsSP	2.2	2	2	1	0	7	50
D. SaladinSP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	14
M. SvansonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
J. BruihlRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
R. FernandezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Team	9.0	5	2	1	2	12	151

Player

3.0

2.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumLF	.353	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.308	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.462	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	.077	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.267	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Yorke3B	.235	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. CookRF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Cimillo1B	.250	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. WilliamsSS	.286	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
O. AlfonzoC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. FletcherRF	.188	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. GarciaRF	.533	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Johnson2B	.385	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. JebbLF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. Gourson2B	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. ValdezRF	.308	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	5	2	1	2	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	3.0	3	1	1	2	3	56
D. DiamondSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
E. SiskRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	25
C. DevenskiRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	21
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
C. SandersRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	12
J. WoodsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	6	3	3	6	10	153

Team

STL

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs STL.